On "Forbes Newsroom," Forbes Senior Editor Dan Alexander breaks down the charges and jury instructions in former President Trump's NYC hush money trial, which he has covered for months.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis with Forbes Breaking News. Joining me now is my colleague,
00:07 Forbes Senior Editor Dan Alexander. Dan, thanks for joining me.
00:11 Sure thing. Thank you for having me.
00:14 Big day in New York today. The jury began deliberations in Donald Trump's hush money
00:19 trial. When you think about the trial, think about where we are right now. What sticks
00:25 out to you and what do our viewers need to know?
00:27 Well, look, this is just a historic moment. You have somebody who is a former president
00:34 and potentially the next president who is confined right now to the courthouse waiting
00:39 to hear his decision. We don't know when that's going to come in. It could be in the next
00:44 five minutes. It could be five days from now. It could be a couple of weeks from now. And
00:48 so Donald Trump really doesn't have much control over the situation. He's just sitting there
00:54 waiting as the rest of us are to see what ultimately what the fallout is.
01:00 Is there any indication of what the fallout is? Can you walk us through the potential
01:05 outcomes here?
01:07 Well, one option is that he could be convicted on all counts. If that happens, then the jury's
01:14 decision would then go to the judge who would then impose a sentence. He could also be convicted
01:19 on some of the counts and acquitted on other counts. It's worth understanding that these
01:26 are all based on different types of business documents. Some of them Donald Trump signed,
01:31 some of them he didn't. So that's a possibility that they could say, "Hey, he's guilty on
01:36 falsified business records for these ones, but not these ones." He also could be acquitted
01:40 wholesale. And in that case, he would obviously claim victory as he makes sense. But regardless
01:48 of the outcome here, there's one thing that we already know, and that's that there's going
01:52 to be a ton of controversy. If it goes Trump's way, he's going to say that this was all rigged
02:00 up and the verdict only proves it. If it goes against him, he's going to say that this is
02:04 a continuation of witch hunts that he's been dealing with for years. And his supporters
02:10 and his antagonists are going to react to this decision very strongly, whatever it is.
02:16 And so we're really at a tense moment here for the country as we wait to see what the
02:22 verdict is.
02:24 It was really tense this morning already, just when the jury instructions were given.
02:29 It's set Twitter ablaze, or now X rather. And I want to talk about these, and if you
02:34 could explain them for us. The jury needs to be unanimous in finding Trump falsified
02:38 business records and knowingly falsified them for another crime. But the jury doesn't need
02:44 to have a consensus on what that other crime is. Can you explain and elaborate this a little
02:49 further?
02:50 Sure. So the facts of this case are relatively simple, but what's not simple is the legal
02:57 theory behind the case. And the key thing to understand is that falsifying business
03:02 records is typically a misdemeanor crime. However, if it's in furtherance of another
03:09 crime, then that can elevate to a felony. Now, in this case, the Manhattan District
03:14 Attorney has charged these 34 counts as felonies, meaning that they were in service of another
03:19 crime. So in order to do that, you have to connect them to another crime. Now, there
03:25 are different ways that you could do this. So one of the theories is that each individual
03:31 falsified record is sort of furthering the next one. So you have one crime, that's then
03:37 the second count, then the second count. So those all pile up on each other. And therefore,
03:42 that's how you elevate this from a misdemeanor to a felony.
03:46 Another theory is that you can say, okay, well, these are all violations of a state
03:51 election law, which prevents people from unlawfully aiding a campaign. Now, in that theory, these
03:59 business records, falsified business records would be essentially a cover-up to maintain
04:06 the secret from the voting public that Donald Trump had paid off this porn star who alleged
04:12 that she had sex with him. And so those two theories are different possibilities.
04:18 And what the judge said in his instructions today is that basically the jury doesn't have
04:25 to agree on which of the theories add up to the felony. So certain parts of the jury can
04:33 believe that you take the one misdemeanor and another misdemeanor and another misdemeanor
04:38 and that adds up to a felony. And others can connect it with the election law and say that
04:43 that's what makes it a felony. But if they all agree that they can be elevated, even
04:48 if they don't agree by the means through which they can be elevated, then you can still convict
04:52 them of felonies.
04:54 Donald Trump obviously had a lot to say about this case as a whole, and he said this today,
05:01 quote, Mother Teresa could not be these charges. These charges are rigged. The whole thing
05:05 is rigged. Is there any indication from these comments that the Trump team is already teeing
05:10 up for a guilty verdict?
05:12 Well, look, Donald Trump has a long history of sort of planning for if things don't go
05:18 his way. You see this with elections. You know, he very famously was asked whether he
05:24 support the results of previous elections. Well, we'll see. We'll see what happens. And
05:28 then ultimately, when he lost the 2020 election, he claimed that he had won. So he's sort of,
05:34 you know, getting ahead of that here, where if he is convicted, he's going to be able
05:39 to say, see, I've been saying this whole time, this is all rigged. Now, if he is acquitted,
05:44 then I suppose he would say, hey, I guess I'm more holy than Mother Teresa or whatever.
05:49 It's sort of either way it plays in his favor.
05:53 And let's say he is convicted. Is there potential prison time or what's the likelihood of
05:58 a former president serving jail time here?
06:01 It is a possibility. So each of these counts, if they're convicted as felonies, carries
06:08 up to four years in jail, but they would likely be done concurrently. So it wouldn't be all
06:14 34 counts times four, which would put him in prison for life. That's a practical impossibility.
06:21 So the maximum amount of time that he could go to jail would be for four years. Now, he
06:25 could also be just sentenced to probation. And so that ultimately will be a decision
06:30 that the judge will make, not the jury. The jury's decision is to decide whether or not
06:35 he is guilty of the crime. And then the judge decides, OK, once he's guilty of the crime,
06:40 if the jury comes to that determination, here's what the appropriate punishment should be.
06:46 And does a conviction judge potential jail time? Does that put his campaign in jeopardy?
06:51 Because as you know, we're about six months away from Election Day.
06:55 Yeah, I mean, it certainly does. You know, he's going to have an appeal. There's no question
07:01 about that. If he were to lose, he would definitely appeal and the appeal would likely take a
07:05 long amount of time and so probably would not be done by the time of the election. So
07:11 he's going to be able to continue campaigning. He's already made the courthouse in the courtroom
07:15 for one of his most frequently visited campaign stops. And you can expect that if he has to
07:23 continue to return to court for any reason, that he'll use it to make a political show
07:28 of it. So I don't think you won't expect to see him get off the trail, nor will he likely
07:34 be sitting in jail on the time that the election is held.
07:38 He's been facing a mountain of legal challenges since he announced he was running for election
07:43 for president in 2024. Do you see this impacting voters' opinions of him at all?
07:51 I think that a lot of people already have their mind made up about Donald Trump. But
07:56 you know, there are different moments in legal proceedings that people take more seriously
08:03 than others. So, OK, let's say that you are accused of a crime by a media organization.
08:10 A lot of people are going to say, "Oh, well, that's just noise." Now, suddenly, if that
08:14 becomes an indictment, then wait a second, this is more serious. Once the charges are
08:19 brought, if you're actually convicted, then people will take it even more seriously than
08:24 that. So I do think that there are these moments when people say, especially when there's a
08:28 question of credibility and who to believe, and of course, everybody has something to
08:32 say about this case, where there's sort of a more neutral arbiter, in this case, it's
08:38 the jury, saying, you know, this is the decision, whether he is not guilty or guilty. And so
08:44 I think that that will sway people's minds in some ways, but ultimately how that affects
08:49 his chances at election are hard to say. But remember, this is going to be a close election,
08:57 almost regardless of what happens between now and then. And so swaying something by
09:02 half of a percentage point could be the difference of who becomes the next president.
09:06 Dan, I feel really lucky talking to you right now. I don't know any other reporter that
09:11 has covered Donald Trump, his finances, his legal challenges, more intimately than you.
09:18 So from that lens, what do you think is missing from the national conversation here?
09:23 Well, you know, I think that the big thing is that this is just one of his major legal
09:29 challenges that he's facing right now. And of course, he also has challenges beyond his
09:34 legal ones, you know, his real financial challenges right now. And when you take all of those
09:39 things and add them all up and you say, okay, this is a guy who is facing right now his
09:44 first of potentially four criminal trials, you get a really, really sort of dark, gloomy
09:53 picture of the man. And it's easy when you get into the news cycle to sort of laser in
10:01 on what's going on at the moment, whether it's this trial or whether it's the previous
10:05 civil fraud trial. And certainly, you know, we're not going to have the other trials before
10:12 the election. But if those were to be held down the line, you know, you zoom in on that
10:17 moment. But I do think that a lot of times in zooming in, people fail to kind of step
10:23 back and say, here's the overall picture. And it's really, I mean, it's a remarkable
10:28 story, one that we haven't seen before in US history, not just, you know, one indictment,
10:34 but four and somebody coming back and trying to make and making a really legitimate run
10:40 at the presidency again. Meanwhile, he's got this complicated, you know, business with,
10:45 you know, fraud allegations and, you know, penalties of hundreds of millions of dollars.
10:50 Any one of these threads would be a history making thing. And yet you have it all colliding
10:56 at once. It's really fascinating.
10:59 That's really interesting, because when you do step back and you look at this as a whole,
11:04 the characters of Stormy Daniels, Michael Cohen, they've been trailing Trump really
11:09 for years now. So when you think about all of these problems that he faces, these legal
11:14 challenges, financial troubles and other, is this the one that could hurt him the most,
11:20 do you think?
11:23 This particular trial?
11:24 Yes.
11:26 Well, just given the timing, the fact that it's likely going to be the only criminal
11:30 trial that happens before the election, I think that you could make that argument. Now,
11:35 it depends on what you're measuring the damage by, you know, I mean, the civil fraud trial
11:41 where he's facing, you know, penalties of hundreds of millions of dollars will undoubtedly
11:46 have a lasting effect on his business. You know, that's something that, you know, if
11:52 you go to jail for a couple of months, OK, that's, you know, a big blow to the ego and
11:55 it damages your reputation. But, you know, at the end of that time, you get out and you
12:00 can go on, you know, living your life with all of the same luxuries, essentially, that
12:04 you had before. If, however, you have hundreds of millions of dollars stripped from you,
12:08 that's a real tangible thing that's hard to get back. If you lose the election and then
12:13 you are facing, you know, additional criminal trials with potentially greater penalties,
12:19 then you could point to those and say, really, those are the most serious. So I think that
12:24 for different reasons, each one of these legal trials, each one of these trials could, in
12:31 hindsight, be viewed as the most significant. And we won't know which of these are going
12:37 to have the biggest impact until probably a couple of years from now.
12:42 Obviously, everyone's waiting with bated breath for the verdict. But between now and whenever
12:47 that is, what are you keeping your eye out on?
12:50 Well, of course, like everybody else, we'll be waiting to see what happens in the courthouse.
12:55 You know, what are the notes that are being passed back and forth? Of course, Trump is
13:00 likely to be sounding off on his own accord on, you know, Truth Social. And so that's
13:05 going to be interesting to watch. But, you know, it's one of the interesting things about
13:09 this trial and really all trials is that you have so much information coming for during
13:16 all of the witnesses and opening statements and the closing statements. It's like a fire
13:19 hose of information. And then it just all stops. And you know that you're at the most
13:25 important moment, but the flow of information is virtually nothing.
13:31 And so at this point, all you can really do is just sit back and wait to see what happens.
13:36 There's not, you know, you're trying to read the tea leaves through, you know, little bits
13:40 here and there, but we're done seeing most of the information until the jury comes back
13:46 in with a verdict.
13:47 Dan, per usual, I really appreciate your insight today. Thank you for joining me.
13:52 Sure thing. Thank you for having me.
13:54 Thank you.
13:55 Thank you.
13:55 [END]