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00:05 But there's only four teams of the 30 clubs around the association still left
00:09 standing, so it's never too early to look at NBA fans maybe favorite time of year.
00:14 That would be the summer and the off season.
00:16 And Donnie, although the year has come to a close for
00:19 the Oklahoma City Thunder, what an optimistic season it was in OKC.
00:24 A team that outpaced the Denver Nuggets to earn the number one seed in
00:28 the Western Conference with the NBA Coach of the Year in Mark Dagonal.
00:32 And of course, a star in Shea Gildress Alexander and
00:36 a first team NBA All-Rookie performer in Chad Holmgren.
00:40 But entering this year, OKC did not have one of the shortest prices
00:44 to win the Western Conference.
00:45 It was 29 to 1.
00:48 So now we take a guess on guess the line of what the price is going to be
00:53 entering next year.
00:54 If you had to estimate what that number looks like for
00:57 the Thunder entering next season to win the West, what do you think it is?
01:01 >> It's gotta be one of the favorites up there.
01:02 So if we're taking a 29 to 1 because it's always hard to say when the team is
01:07 actually going to want to start to get good.
01:09 And the reason I say that is OKC has had some pretty good pieces together, but
01:12 it's apparent they were holding them back to get better draft picks and
01:16 say we're not ready to maximize our talent.
01:18 Now you're in a position for OKC after this year,
01:21 you're going to maximize your talent.
01:23 It's no longer about draft picks you have a ton of.
01:25 It's no longer about having a young basketball team.
01:26 You're extremely young.
01:28 You take a look at that starting lineup.
01:30 SGA, Isaiah Joe, Dewart Williams and home grid.
01:33 That is a great baseboard of young players to build off of.
01:37 Now the question is going to be how do you spend some of those draft picks
01:40 in the future to bring in that veteran talent to get you over the hump?
01:43 And what I mean by getting over the hump is making that long run now in the playoffs.
01:47 They already got the number one seed.
01:48 They show you they are a very good NBA team in the regular season.
01:52 Now just need a little bit more of that help.
01:53 So if we're guessing what the odds would be 29 to one last year,
01:58 I'm going to be honest.
01:58 What are we looking at next year?
02:00 Six to one, seven to one at a long shot, maybe even less than that, Ben.
02:04 >> I can't wait to see what those odds look like because the story,
02:09 as we have said many times on this show, entering a new NBA season in 23,
02:14 24 was the idea of the big four, the two teams from the Eastern Conference,
02:19 favored to win the NBA championship.
02:21 And of course, co-favorites to win the East.
02:23 Boston and Milwaukee and the two teams about two bucks behind to win
02:28 the NBA championship of co-favorites out West, the reigning champs in the Nuggets and
02:32 the Phoenix Suns, three of those four teams never amounted to getting anywhere close
02:38 to those numbers.
02:39 I mean, the Denver Nuggets did reach the second round and a game seven.
02:42 But at 29 to one, Oklahoma City was tied for
02:45 the eighth best price to win the Western Conference crown along with four other
02:49 teams, including the Timberwolves, who of course are favored now to get that done.
02:53 And they minus 168 series price against the Dallas Mavericks.
02:57 I have to believe the price is less than ten to one.
03:01 I have to believe for Oklahoma City, the price is in the top five.
03:05 But depending on how this offseason shakes out DRS, and we look at LA,
03:09 the Lakers and the Clippers, and we see what Golden State brings back.
03:13 And depending on what happens in Phoenix, if all of the big three do return,
03:19 I wouldn't be overly shocked to see Oklahoma City not have one of the three or
03:23 five best prices.
03:25 Just give it out in the odds maker's view, the NBA season in large part.
03:29 And this year being unexpected for those young and
03:32 rising teams that kind of outlast the teams that have more of that postseason
03:36 pedigree with those superstars that we have known more so
03:40 in the last decade in the association.
03:43 >> Exactly, and there's a lot of room there.
03:44 They have a lot of money to spend on the salary cap, and
03:46 also they have some unbelievable options to flip some draft picks for
03:50 superstar players.
03:51 Because the one thing you could take a look at in that lineup, I like Isaiah Joe,
03:54 but he'd be great coming off the bench, being able to fill it up from three point
03:57 range.
03:57 If you improve that shooting guard position here on OKC with a flat out
04:01 veteran star, that changes the equation.
04:04 So you're right about that.
04:05 We're sort of in a holding pattern,
04:06 because the one thing I think we can understand about OKC is,
04:09 I don't think they're gonna return next year with the same exact team.
04:11 And why would you?
04:12 As I said, salary cap to spend as well as using those extra picks that you
04:16 can flip, you should be able to get two to three nice pieces in there to make a run.
04:20 And also, back to the original statement for me, so many times,
04:23 like wait a second, who's this SGA guy that's dropping 35 points, but
04:27 then they won't let him play for three straight games cuz they need losses.
04:29 Then they bring him back, he scored 35.
04:31 That was like two to three years ago.
04:32 Now this guy's playing every single night as a legitimate MVP candidate.
04:36 It's time to surround all those guys with talent, and I think they will.
04:39 So I would be surprised again, that 10 to 1 price be a little bit high.
04:42 We expect movement here based on a team that's already won
04:46 the number one seed in the regular season.
04:48 Let's see what happens in the offseason.
04:50 >> Yeah, DRS, I say I wouldn't be surprised if the odds maker said it.
04:54 If you were asking me and you and I were in the FanDuel Sportsbook risk room,
04:58 I would have that price at plus 750, plus 700.
05:01 Because I believe in the Thunder earning that valuable postseason pedigree and
05:05 an offseason where you would expect for them to add a critical and important piece.
05:10 I have full belief in the Thunder getting back to the top of the Western Conference
05:14 next NBA season in 2024, 25.
05:18 Here's one of my favorites from this Guess the Line segment that we're doing,
05:21 and next segment as well.
05:23 Nikola Jokic was the preseason favorite to win the 2024 NBA MVP at plus 430.
05:30 I expect him to be the favorite entering next year, but
05:34 I don't know what that number necessarily looks like.
05:37 And I wonder how much the odds makers in a market that is not necessarily
05:41 quantifiable change that number.
05:44 Because for Nikola Jokic to win four MVP awards in five years,
05:49 I would think would be rather unfathomable just based on voter fatigue,
05:53 knowing it is a narrative award.
05:56 I think the Joker could be the preseason favorite entering next season.
06:00 I don't think he wins the MVP award next year.
06:03 >> You hit the nail on the head, because it's not so
06:05 much about him being a great basketball player, which he is.
06:07 And quite frankly, probably should be the number one overall guy at the start of
06:11 the odds market, the Fandul Sportsbook.
06:13 But how can he win the MVP next year?
06:16 Because usually, I talk about this all the time in every sport.
06:19 You gotta be an MVP candidate for a couple years before you win the MVP.
06:22 It's very rare, Ben, you come out of nowhere like, hey,
06:25 didn't know who this guy was and he's the MVP.
06:27 You have to build yourself.
06:28 It's almost like the All-Pro team in the NFL.
06:30 You gotta be an All-Pro for
06:31 like two or three years before you actually get named All-Pro.
06:34 The reason I say this, and you're right about it, by hitting that nail on the head
06:37 is, Jokic should be the MVP favorite next year.
06:41 But everybody's coming with the mindset, he's not gonna win it again.
06:44 So how low can you put those prices,
06:46 knowing that everybody else is gonna be pegging Luka Doncic a little bit below?
06:49 SGA or Joel Embiid, or
06:51 just somebody who didn't win it last year at this point.
06:54 So I don't think he's going to be as high as that plus 430.
06:56 I look for an opening price around 5 to 1, knowing that the voters and
07:00 also the bettors say, he can't win this again.
07:04 I'm betting on Luka Doncic more against the line next.
07:07 Guess the line continues as we have an outlook for
07:11 next season and the offseason in the NBA.
07:14 And we're doing this before the summer months, before free agency,
07:18 before an NBA year has truly come to a close.
07:21 With the conference finals beginning tonight in the Eastern Conference in
07:25 Boston between the Celtics and the Pacers.
07:27 I say that because of the large caveat,
07:30 I think that would be tied to the New York Knicks price entering next year.
07:34 I think it's pretty apparent for the Knicks to get back to the mountaintop, for
07:37 the Knicks to make the Eastern Conference finals, for
07:39 the Knicks to be a true NBA title contender,
07:42 they need another piece alongside Jalen Brunson.
07:45 That piece is not Julius Randle.
07:47 So I wonder what New York does this offseason.
07:50 A couple of years ago, there was a thought DRS, that the Knicks were maybe not that
07:54 attractive destination in the Big Apple that they once had the idea of being.
08:00 Now I believe New York is.
08:03 I think there will be a big fish on the line to make their way to Madison Square
08:08 Garden for next year.
08:10 So the Knicks entered this season at 16 to 1 to win the Eastern Conference crown.
08:15 I believe it was the fifth best price, well behind both Boston and
08:19 Milwaukee with Philadelphia and Miami in front of New York as well.
08:25 What do you think the price is on the New York Knicks entering next season to
08:30 win the Eastern Conference Championship?
08:32 >> Yeah, if we're taking a look at 16 to 1,
08:34 you know it's gonna be lower than that right off the bat.
08:35 Cuz the Knicks have a really good organization, a good basketball team, and
08:38 superstar players like Jalen Brunson.
08:40 But the fact of the matter is this roster is going to change next year, and
08:43 also the landscape of the East.
08:45 I don't know how much it changes from being top heavy.
08:47 The reason I say that is the Boston Celtics are gonna have a championship
08:51 laden team.
08:52 Granted, most of those players we expect to come back.
08:54 You also take a look at the Milwaukee Bucks.
08:56 That was a down ending to the season.
08:58 Why? Because most likely,
08:59 some of your superstar players got injured, one like Giannis Antetokounmpo.
09:02 So let's just say he holds the pedal to the metal in Milwaukee,
09:06 as he's told them repeatedly.
09:07 I'm not gonna stay here or
09:08 be happy unless you give me exactly what I want on a year to year basis.
09:11 They'll be back up there.
09:12 And also, the Philadelphia 76ers looking to add another Max contract player,
09:16 along with Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid.
09:18 I think those three teams will be priced ahead of the New York Knicks.
09:21 But after that, it really should be the New York Knicks,
09:23 which a 16 to 1 price in the East should be much,
09:26 much lower as the fourth technical seed.
09:28 So if I'm being honest with myself, probably an 8 to 9 to 1 price
09:33 on the New York Knicks in the East next year to me does make some sense.
09:36 Cuz they will make changes and we saw how good they can be with Jalen Brunson.
09:40 But I honestly believe they'll be seated fourth in the odds market,
09:44 once we get those numbers from Fanadil.
09:45 >> I think fourth is correct, but
09:49 I wonder what fourth best is in terms of the number.
09:52 These notes from our producer Joe Frizzo, who tracks the markets very well.
09:57 I had it incorrect, it was not New York.
09:59 With the fifth best price, it was sixth best.
10:01 Boston and Milwaukee, super short co-favorites to win the East before the year,
10:06 at plus 175.
10:07 Third best number was the Cavs at plus 750.
10:10 Then Philly at 10 to 1, with the uncertainty around James Horton and
10:14 his status.
10:15 And then Miami with the fifth best number at 11 to 1, and
10:19 the New York Knicks at a 16 to 1 price.
10:23 I think New York is closer to that 10 to 1 number.
10:26 But I think Boston will enter next season as a very short favorite to win the East.
10:30 If Dame and Giannis both return to Milwaukee, which is what we would expect,
10:34 I think they have the second best number.
10:36 And I think Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey have been that formidable duo
10:40 in Philadelphia, third best price.
10:42 So where exactly are the gaps in terms of those numbers?
10:46 I do think New York has that fourth best price.
10:50 Could Donovan Mitchell impact that price for the Knickerbockers?
10:54 Donovan Mitchell, what team is he going to be on in 2024, 25?
11:00 What would you set the odds on DRS that he returns to your favorite city,
11:04 Cleveland?
11:04 >> I would probably put that at a plus money price at this point,
11:08 not actually as a favorite.
11:09 Like, he's coming back minus 300.
11:11 I just figure that if you play in Cleveland and you hear the squawking outside,
11:16 and you know you're pretty much doomed from the beginning of the season where
11:19 it's all about a lot of times these guys, yes, they want their money.
11:22 They wanna live in a great place.
11:23 But also they wanna have a chance to win a championship.
11:26 Is anybody talking about next year a lot of good players going to Cleveland
11:29 to surround Donovan Mitchell and away they go?
11:31 No.
11:31 So if you see other teams in great destinations with organizations that have
11:35 won championships, that's gonna be much more alluring to him than saying in
11:38 Cleveland.
11:39 So I would put the favorite as him leaving Cleveland here at, let's just say,
11:43 a minus 200 price as opposed to staying, which I think would be a dog price right
11:47 now.
11:49 >> I agree.
11:49 I would say minus 250 for him to go anywhere else in the NBA,
11:54 probably plus 600 for him to return in Cleveland.
11:58 I just really think his time in Cleveland has come to a close.
12:02 I think the Cavaliers are going to undergo some offseason changes to that roster and
12:07 maybe even the coaching staff and JB Bicker staff.
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