• 7 months ago
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Transcript
00:00 All right, hello everybody and welcome to Patriots First and Goal, one of my favorite
00:04 podcasts I do all year, which is really embarrassing to say because it's just basically a bunch
00:09 of names on a spreadsheet with some dates next to it.
00:13 But it is the New England Patriots Schedule Release Podcast, sponsored to you by GameTime.
00:18 GameTime is going to be where you get your tickets to all these awesome games, and we
00:21 now know where they are and when they are.
00:24 I am Alex Shane here breaking down Patriots Schedule with my good buddy Rich Hill.
00:27 Rich, how you doing, man?
00:28 I'm doing well.
00:29 I'm doing well.
00:30 Not great with the schedule, but we'll break that down in a little bit.
00:34 How are you doing, Alex?
00:36 I'm doing okay.
00:37 You know, it's funny, like it's amazing.
00:38 I'm always very impressed with how the NFL is able to drag out something that could take
00:43 maybe eight seconds into like a week long.
00:47 They leak things and they prognosticate and then there's like schedule release breakdown
00:52 shows.
00:53 I guess it's the reason like you can either watch the Oscars or you can like see who won
00:56 the next morning.
00:58 This is my Oscars schedule release.
01:00 I'm with you though, man.
01:01 Like I look at the schedule and I'm not overly happy with how things shook out.
01:07 I you know, not the best schedule, I guess.
01:10 I mean, you knew who they were playing and where they were playing, but I feel like this
01:14 could have gone a little better in terms of timing for me in terms of when they're playing.
01:18 Yeah, totally.
01:19 And so I'm looking forward to breaking it down with you.
01:21 I feel like the preseason, we can just like mash into this first down, but let's break
01:27 down by quarter in this.
01:28 We are down.
01:29 Yeah, that sounds good.
01:30 All right.
01:31 So let's do the pre first down.
01:33 I guess like kickoff to the fair caught in the end zone preseason home against the Panthers
01:39 on the 8th of August home against the Eagles on the 15th project and joint practices there
01:43 and then at the commanders the 25th.
01:45 There should be interesting preseason.
01:47 Probably see a lot of Drake May.
01:49 I want at least one Drake made a Taekwon Thornton bomb before he gets cut.
01:54 But again, I've got nothing really to say about the preseason.
01:57 It's kind of useless.
01:58 Yeah, no, I mean, I'm excited to see the games themselves.
02:02 You know, like one of the lineups on the offensive line who's starting at left tackle who actually
02:08 kind of looks okay, because this is where you're going to be your first real chance
02:11 to see throughout camp.
02:13 Who do the coaches believe in?
02:15 Who are the players that the coaches are like, all right, they deserve a chance to be with
02:18 the starters on this one.
02:20 You'll often see under Belichick that like this, the young second stringers will get
02:24 a few snaps with the first down or first team.
02:26 So I'm excited to see where the coaches perceive the players to be.
02:30 But I also imagine that there won't be too many surprises.
02:33 Now, do you remember, Rich, when it was kind of the Cam versus Mack debate?
02:37 Did Cam Newton get the bulk of the starts of that preseason or was that mostly Mack
02:40 Jones?
02:41 Do you remember?
02:42 I honestly don't remember.
02:43 I think it was very much clear though during camp and everything like that where it was
02:46 like, oh, Mack's the guy.
02:48 Mack's the guy, yeah.
02:49 That will be the question, obviously.
02:50 Hopefully he's preset, but maybe Drake May can have a phenomenal preseason in camp and
02:55 take him over, we will see.
02:56 But again, nobody cares about the preseason.
02:58 I'm glad they got rid of that one game, that week four New York Giants-Patriots matchup
03:02 was always so painful to talk about and break down.
03:04 Hey, I liked watching that random Patriots receiver go off for 150 yards and make everyone
03:10 be super hopeful only for them to never make the tape.
03:14 The old Malik Cunningham offense, I guess.
03:17 Let's get to the games in matter though, Rich Hill.
03:19 First and goal, the Patriots are on the road for almost the entire month of September.
03:23 They open up against Cincinnati, then they play home against the Seahawks, then they
03:27 have a Thursday night game at the Jets, and then they have to go all the way to San Francisco
03:30 for the 49ers to close out the month of September.
03:34 How do you feel about this first month of the season for them?
03:36 It's brutal.
03:37 It's truly, it could not be any worse, honestly.
03:41 The only way it could be worse, it was somehow at Seattle.
03:44 Just the amount of travel that they're going to have to do here.
03:47 They're going to have to go from doing their only primetime game of the season against
03:51 the Jets here, who Aaron Rodgers will be back, so they're going to be more competitive than
03:56 in the past.
03:57 Go all the way across the country to go play the defending NFC champ, San Francisco 49ers.
04:03 It's going to be hard.
04:05 The Bengals have Joe Burrow.
04:07 The Seahawks game, I don't think I'm ever going to say it's an easy one, but of those
04:11 four is probably the most winnable.
04:14 Jets is going to be hard.
04:15 49ers is going to be nigh impossible.
04:18 If the Patriots come out of this one, one and three, I'll say they're doing a pretty
04:22 good job, but they could very easily go 0-4 on this stretch, and I wouldn't bat an eye,
04:27 and I wouldn't judge the team either.
04:29 No, I mean, it's, you know, Seahawks, that's a real question mark of a team this year for
04:33 me, but yeah, this is a really rough way to start, particularly if Drake May does win
04:38 the starting job.
04:39 Talk about a welcome to the NFL moment, going to one of the better teams in the AFC, at
04:43 Cincinnati, tough place to play, home against the Seahawks.
04:46 That's kind of a crap shoot, and then you've got to go a short week for a Thursday night
04:48 game at New York, big AFC East rival, and then all the way across the country.
04:53 I guess the one saving grace is they have that mini-bye after the Jets game, so they
04:57 can go to San Francisco a little earlier.
04:59 I was really hoping you'd see at San Francisco and at Arizona, back to back, so they could
05:03 stay on the West Coast for that leg, but that obviously didn't happen.
05:06 They're going to play Arizona all the way until week 15, so not only is it a lot of
05:10 travel, it's three or four games on the road, and it's three or four games against three
05:14 really good teams, possibly four really good teams.
05:18 It's the Jets, I don't know what's going to happen with them, that's kind of a question
05:22 mark for me.
05:23 I think two and two would be an absolute golden win for the Patriots here.
05:30 Big dream.
05:31 Yeah.
05:32 Yeah.
05:33 But again, I guess on the plus side, they get some away games out of the way.
05:38 It's a good trial by fire, see how tough the team is.
05:41 And there is also that kind of first month of the season kind of shaking off the cobwebs.
05:46 Maybe they catch the Bengals sleeping week one, very possible, you never know.
05:50 At the Jets, Thursday Night Football is such a crap shoot, nobody has any clue.
05:53 This could be Thursday Night Football any time with the Brady-led Patriots.
05:57 It would still be who knows.
05:58 And then again, at 49ers, maybe they catch them sleeping in the gimme game or a trap
06:03 game.
06:04 So, you know, it would be a really cool, like, let's win one for the Gipper style, Gerard
06:07 Mayo, let's dominate.
06:08 But yeah, this is a brutal first first week of the season.
06:12 Yeah, to me, my wonder is like, okay, Jacoby Brissett wins the starting job.
06:18 We've always talked about like, the way that Drake May wins is if he either one outperforms
06:22 Jacoby Brissett or Jacoby Brissett goes in there and is completely dusted.
06:27 He's just not good.
06:29 Does this start of the season, we can also talk about a little bit more on second down
06:33 too, does the start of the season kind of set up Jacoby Brissett, the veteran bridge
06:38 to fail?
06:39 Because my goodness, he's not going to get through this, this stretch unscathed.
06:45 And if the Patriots, you know, go into that second quarter of the season as well, but
06:50 like, they start off the year one and three, oh, and four, the bluebirds are going to come
06:54 out.
06:55 And I can very well and very easily and kind of understandably see people be like, why
07:01 aren't we just doing Drake May?
07:02 If we're not going to win anything, let's just do Drake May.
07:05 Yeah.
07:06 I mean, there's also going to be that fan base out there that Jacoby could start week
07:09 one.
07:10 And before he takes his first snap, they're going to be like, give me Drake May, you know,
07:13 that's coming anyway.
07:14 So I think we're kind of divided.
07:16 Patriots nation is on terms of when Drake May should start.
07:18 I think the more rational Patriots fans know he's not ready yet.
07:21 I hope that Gerard Mayo sees this and says, unless he absolutely dominates the next few
07:27 months of OTAs and practices and preseason, I am not going to throw this poor kid to the
07:31 Bengals, the Jets, the 49ers, the Seahawks on the road.
07:34 There's just no way you should do that.
07:35 It's really, really rough.
07:36 I don't know.
07:37 You're going to see some very interesting stuff here.
07:39 And oh, and four through September, your season's already over.
07:43 I guess on the plus side, we'll know a lot about this team and how much we should be
07:48 excited coming to the second half, second quarter of the season.
07:51 So let's go to second down here, Rich Hill.
07:53 From week five on, they have a little home stretch against the Dolphins and Texans.
07:56 It's their only back to back home game stretch all season.
07:59 The Dolphins and Texans to close out, to open up October, excuse me.
08:03 Then they travel to London for week seven for an away game, luckily, against the Jaguars
08:07 and their home against the Jets.
08:09 This is a little bit easier, but not a ton easier.
08:12 No, not at all.
08:13 They don't even get the bi-week rest after the London game, which is wild.
08:18 Like so they're just going to go to London and then immediately play the next week.
08:20 And also, this is like three playoff team or four playoff, well, literally three playoff
08:26 teams, but four playoff caliber teams here.
08:29 Again, they could start oh and eight and I don't think anyone would blink.
08:34 That's the, that's how this roster is like their easiest game here is probably against
08:38 the Jaguars and that's in London.
08:41 Who knows what's going to happen on that one.
08:43 And so I wouldn't be surprised if they lost to the Dolphins.
08:46 I wouldn't be surprised if they lost to the Texans.
08:49 That one would probably be more competitive, but I wouldn't be surprised if they lost.
08:52 I really think the Texans are in an awesome spot as a team.
08:55 The Jaguars, who knows?
08:57 It's London.
08:58 Anything can happen.
08:59 And then again, homing in the Jets, you'd like for the Patriots to be competitive.
09:02 Anything can happen in these divisional games.
09:05 This is another sequence where it's two out of two and two is the best case scenario.
09:10 More likely than not, they're going to come out of this one also one and three and reach
09:13 the eight game point and be something like two and six or one and seven on the year.
09:18 Yeah.
09:19 Two and six, one and seven is not a playoff bound team.
09:25 On the plus side, there are two games I actually really like, the Dolphins and the Jets.
09:30 I'm making the Dolphins game week five, my game time hot ticket.
09:34 I go to one game with my dad every single year.
09:36 We've been going for years.
09:37 I'm going to game time and I'm going to watch the Dolphins game.
09:39 If you haven't done game time, it's awesome.
09:41 It's a great way to pick seats.
09:42 You can visualize it.
09:43 They have drop down prices.
09:45 Awesome app.
09:46 And they can't keep losing to the Dolphins the way they have the last couple of seasons.
09:50 Tua is going to lose to the Patriots eventually.
09:52 They always beat one team they shouldn't beat.
09:54 It happens every year.
09:55 It used to happen to the Patriots.
09:56 So I'm going to go with the Patriots.
09:58 They sneak one out against the Dolphins at home and then maybe they split with the Jets
10:02 this season if the Jets are good.
10:03 This could be like a three in one stretch.
10:07 I can't see them beating the Texans.
10:08 The Texans are a pretty good team.
10:10 But I can see three in one as like, "Oh, maybe it was just September.
10:14 Doldrums, they're getting it together."
10:16 And then they drop off again because yeah.
10:21 This is them pulling it together.
10:22 Yeah.
10:23 This is them pulling it together.
10:24 I don't know, man.
10:25 It's one with the Dolphins on it too where I'm like, yeah, I do think that the Patriots
10:29 at some point need to be able to beat Tua.
10:33 But I'm sure Bill's fans were saying the same thing about Tom Brady.
10:37 So it's like, the Dolphins just have so much more talent than the Patriots do at that point.
10:42 And it's like, it's okay.
10:44 This Patriots team is a two to three year rebuild.
10:47 They were completely barren of any talent on the offensive side heading into this year's
10:52 drafts.
10:53 Maybe this is the point of the year after four weeks of the season, you'll start seeing
10:57 maybe like Javon Baker is going to really start showing up.
11:00 Or Pop Douglas is going to continue to evolve in his second season.
11:04 Maybe the Patriots will have some players start showing up.
11:07 Maybe Juju Schuster looks really good in this new revitalized system.
11:11 There's a lot of options that could happen here.
11:14 I just don't think this game against the Dolphins is when it pays off.
11:17 Well, again, like I said, Rich Hill, there's always going to be one game that they win
11:20 and they have no business winning.
11:21 It happens to every single bad team.
11:24 It happened to the Patriots on the bad end for a while.
11:26 The Patriots beat the Bills last year somehow inexplicably.
11:29 So it's going to happen.
11:30 The Dolphins is my kind of upset pick for the season.
11:32 I am, to your point, I'm very surprised there's not a week eight bye.
11:37 I don't know what the logic was there, having them go to London and then fly all the way
11:41 back home for a 1pm game against the Jets, which usually I would like.
11:44 But you're not getting out of London until late afternoon and you got to fly back and
11:51 you got to adjust.
11:52 And then it seems like a very obvious thing.
11:54 You go to London, you play a bye the next week, maybe because they're doing so many
11:58 London games, it couldn't make it work.
12:00 But that's a that's a real hose job, in my opinion.
12:02 Yeah, totally.
12:03 I mean, you couldn't have asked for.
12:05 Well, we can talk about the bye week later, but it feels like the Patriots have really
12:10 the most brutal first eight games with especially how it's laid out with the away games and
12:16 everything like that.
12:17 The most brutal first eight games you could have asked for.
12:22 It really, really is, man.
12:23 Like, you know, we all knew this, who the opponents were.
12:26 So it's not like there's some kind of massive truth bomb, but you're hoping they could string
12:30 a couple of wins together, get some momentum, think towards next season, build some positivity.
12:35 But yeah, I mean, look, if it's the week seven mark or the week eight mark and they come
12:39 into the the Patriots versus Jets home game 0-7, that's really not this massive shocker.
12:46 The only thing that's making me so nervous, Rich Hill, is Belichick goes, they bring in
12:51 Gerard Mayo, they draft the rookie quarterback.
12:55 And if Gerard Mayo is sticking with Breset, which would probably be a smart move if the
12:59 season does unfold the way we're possibly thinking it is, I just do not want to be within
13:03 500 miles of the Boston media if Gerard Mayo has to inherit an 0-7 Patriots team with this
13:10 schedule, completely ignoring kind of the circumstances surrounding it.
13:13 That's going to be a miserable listening experience.
13:15 I want no part of.
13:17 No, it's true.
13:18 I mean, like I want them to squeak out a few wins here and there.
13:21 Like you have to.
13:22 I want this team to be like, you know, six to seven win team over the course of the year.
13:29 It's just this, like the third down, we can talk about this after the break.
13:33 It gets a little bit easier, it gets a little bit better.
13:38 But these eight weeks, these first eight games in these eight weeks are just disastrous for
13:44 the team and one where, you know, it does set it up very well for that third quarter
13:49 of the season when it starts to line up a little bit.
13:51 If they're like, all right, let we've had to pull Jacoby Breset and garbage time a few
13:56 times so Drake may can go play against some of these teams.
14:01 Maybe that's the time you hand over the reins.
14:03 Yeah, maybe we'll see.
14:05 We talked about the ceiling or the floor for this team is definitely 0-8.
14:09 That isn't the ridiculous thing.
14:10 I don't think they will go 0-8, maybe like 1-7.
14:12 But what's the absolute best case pie in the sky, optimistic ceiling for this team through
14:16 the first eight weeks, Richard?
14:17 You had everything kind of going right, they're not going 8-0 obviously.
14:20 What's like a realistic best case scenario coming into week eight with the Jets?
14:24 Best case scenario is like 4-4.
14:28 Best case, they go, best case over the first quarter of the season is 1-3.
14:32 Like, they will maybe steal one against the Seahawks, but those other three road games,
14:38 I don't see like, on average, they're only going to win one of those at best.
14:42 Or as in like, across those first four weeks.
14:45 Best case is that they go 1-3 over that and it'll all feel good if they look competitive
14:49 in their losses.
14:50 That second quarter of the season that you mentioned, like Dolphins, Texans, Jaguars,
14:56 Jets, they could win four.
14:58 I feel like all four of those games are winnable in my mind.
15:02 Best case, I don't think they'll go 4-0, but they can go like 3-1 in that stretch.
15:06 And that would be really cool, win some point flip games.
15:09 And so I mean like, on average across that, best case scenario is that they go 4-4 in
15:13 the first half of the year.
15:14 Yeah, I mean, I guess I could probably go real homer and fabricate some scenario where
15:19 they can catch the Bengals week one, then they beat the Seahawks at home, and then Thursday
15:23 night football at the Jets is some kind of crapshoot where they manage to pull one out
15:27 there.
15:28 Lose to the 49ers, maybe they squeak against the Dolphins.
15:30 I guess I could do like a 5-3, but that's a real pie in the sky scenario.
15:35 I think 4-4 would be amazing.
15:38 There have been some great Patriots teams in the past that were 4-4 coming into week
15:41 eight, so that's phenomenal.
15:43 But yeah, I think 2-6 is much more realistic, so we should set our expectations accordingly.
15:47 But you're right, Rich, it does get easier on the third quarter of the season, which
15:51 we'll talk about in goal coming up.
15:54 What's up guys, it's Alex Shane from Patriots First and Goal, and I cannot wait to tell
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17:11 All right, buddy, we've gotten through the first half of the season, the first almost
17:17 half of the season, now 17 games.
17:19 It's really hard to break it up the way we used to.
17:21 We're getting to a slightly easier stretch, but not like this like massively easier stretch.
17:27 The next four weeks of the season, or getting into the bye week, I should say, they're at
17:31 Tennessee, at Chicago, home against the Rams, at the Dolphins, and then home against the
17:36 Colts heading into a week 14 bye.
17:39 I was excited about the week 14 bye when they first got one, but given this team, given
17:44 this schedule, I think a week 14 bye is way too late and it's not going to really matter
17:48 because it's not like we're gearing up for a playoff run after that.
17:52 That week eight non-bye is really screwing us.
17:54 But on the plus side, even though the bye is too late, in my personal opinion, very
17:58 winnable games in the stretch here.
17:59 Totally, I agree about the winnable games and the bye is at an absurd point of the year.
18:05 It's so late.
18:06 It's not like they had their Thursday night game or had an elongated break after the Thursday
18:12 game.
18:13 Their Thursday night game was back in week three.
18:16 It's not like they had a mini bye somewhere to make it feel like you can chunk out this
18:20 year into three segments.
18:22 It's like, no, no, no.
18:23 You're going to wait to week 14 to take your break.
18:27 These five games, they're winnable.
18:29 I obviously like I don't think that they're going to win all five.
18:32 That Dolphins game is going to be very, very difficult, but Titans very winnable, very,
18:38 very well.
18:39 Let us as their quote, you can be you can get that in Tennessee.
18:42 Jacoby percent.
18:43 That's why they bought in Jacoby is to win those levels of games, not to win every game,
18:48 but to win against teams that are probably going to be picking in the top 10 next year.
18:52 They should be able to beat the Bears.
18:54 Obviously, going to get a lot of attention.
18:56 Yeah, you're Caleb Williams there.
18:57 You know, Drake Bay starting at that point.
18:59 That'll get a lot of attention.
19:02 The Rams game.
19:03 They're not the Rams of like three years ago.
19:05 They've had a lot of injuries and everything like that.
19:07 A lot of retirements.
19:09 Also in my mind, a very winnable game, especially at home, if they have to travel across the
19:13 country makes a lot of sense.
19:15 Their Dolphins might lose that one Colts again, very wimble.
19:19 Another team that's probably going to pick in the top 10 next year.
19:22 This is absolutely their easiest stretch.
19:24 I can see them going, you know, best case scenario, four and one over the stretch, probably
19:28 more likely three and two, but I can see this being a point in time where people feel more
19:33 hopeful about the future of this team.
19:36 This is also could be the time in the season where they do hand the reins over to Drake
19:39 May because you know, if you're one in seven coming into week nine, like why would you
19:44 roll a percent?
19:45 No one thinks percent the guy going forward.
19:46 He's a great gap year quarterback.
19:49 And yeah, it'd be really cool to see Drake may come in and win some of these games.
19:52 And then of course, since it's an awesome, awesome media, they should have started Drake
19:55 May from week one, drop me.
19:57 It was already watched, but we can talk about that disaster when it happens.
20:01 The only game that I'm really a little worried about is a possible upset picks.
20:04 I don't think any team that beats the Patriots is like considering upset.
20:09 Well, I do think that Chicago is a real question mark to me.
20:13 I don't know what they're going to be doing.
20:14 I'm sure they're starting Caleb Williams week one.
20:16 I don't know what they're going to do in terms of their, the damage they're going to do this
20:20 season.
20:21 But I think that's one of those games where the pages maybe are coming in a little favored
20:24 and it is completely crap the bed and Williams just dominates Drake May.
20:29 And it's the whole more narrative thing.
20:31 The theme of my, my rants in this podcast for chill is there's a lot of potential for
20:36 the absolute worst of the Boston media to have an absolute field day with this team.
20:41 And Chicago could be a real ripe piece of that.
20:44 Well, totally.
20:45 I mean, the big narrative on it is, did they set up their quarterback for more success
20:50 than the Patriots?
20:51 Cause you look at what they've done over the past couple of years, acquired DJ more, who's
20:57 a one B if not a one a wide receiver, they traded for Keenan Allen for like a fourth
21:03 round pick obviously on the older side of it, but he's been the most consistent receiver
21:09 when healthy over like the past seven years, kind of a thing.
21:13 And then they used another top 10 pick on a wide receiver.
21:16 They've been in vesting.
21:18 They've been adding players to the line.
21:20 They've been doing everything to put the highest level of talent around their young quarterback.
21:25 And obviously Justin Fields didn't work out.
21:28 Okay.
21:29 Try again.
21:30 What have the Patriots surrounded their quarterback in the future?
21:35 Drake Mayweath short, they've invested draft picks.
21:39 I'll, you know, definitely say Jalen Polk, good investment on that one.
21:43 I liked Javon Baker for from picks.
21:46 Not necessarily going to say it's like a proven veteran level kind of a support, but okay.
21:50 What else?
21:51 I'm not going to say Juju Smith Schuster is anywhere near the same level as Keenan Allen.
21:56 I'm not going to say KJ Osborne is anywhere near the same as using a top 10 pick on a
22:01 wide receiver.
22:02 Obviously Patriots didn't have the chance to do that.
22:03 They needed it for Drake Bay.
22:05 They just don't have the same talent around their, their team.
22:09 So one where I do think that they should be able to beat the Bears most because I trust
22:13 the defense.
22:14 I think DeMarcus Covington is going to do an awesome job with this defense.
22:17 The talent's all there.
22:18 I think that they're going to continue to be a top three unit in the entire league.
22:23 I believe in them fully in their ability to fluster a rookie quarterback.
22:26 So I think that's where the game is going to be allowed to be competitive.
22:29 But when you see the narrative, what's the media going to talk about is going to be like,
22:33 Oh, the Patriots have failed to surround their, their quarterback with the talent.
22:36 Like look at the Bears.
22:37 They did a great job.
22:38 Yeah, no, I guess the plus that I like about this part of the schedule is we're coming
22:43 to November and November is usually the time where the Patriots were kind of tuning into
22:47 playoff mode and really honing the skills to make up deeper in January.
22:52 But this could be a nice glimpse into the future.
22:57 The rookie starting to get some more reps in, they're starting to click a little bit
22:59 offensively.
23:00 You see these little flashes of, of competent offensive play and there'll be a nice little
23:05 early Christmas present for those of us who were hoping for, for things the next year.
23:09 But a real question is, you know, usually when a team goes into a bye week, hopefully
23:12 a lot earlier in the future, they talk about, okay, we need to rest or cover and rehab.
23:17 Obviously, but this is the point in the season where we take a step back.
23:20 We make some adjustments.
23:22 We do what we need to do to finish out the season strong.
23:25 Look at what wasn't working.
23:26 Look at what was, but with a week 14 bye in this schedule and probably something like,
23:31 I don't know, like four and nine, three and 10 record at this point, what, what, what's,
23:38 what's your bye week conversation?
23:40 If you're Jerrod Mayo going this late in the season, I think you're very much turning the
23:44 keys over to the future on that point and being like, okay, if we've gotten to this
23:50 bye week and Juju Smith, Smith Schuster looks great.
23:54 That's cool.
23:55 Let them keep playing, put surround Drake may with it.
23:57 Let them do it.
23:58 If you're clearly destined for a top 10 pick, you don't need to put your veterans out there.
24:03 Like if it's Chuka Okafor at the left tackle and you're like, I don't know, put in, put
24:08 in Caden do something like that.
24:10 Like as in put in the players that you, you might be investing in for the future, give
24:15 them the real reps.
24:16 It's not going to matter from like a record perspective, but then at least you'll see
24:19 what you have.
24:20 So when you go into the off season, Patriots, again, we'll have a lot of money to spend.
24:24 We'll have good draft picks again.
24:27 They'll have the better sense of where their roster sits.
24:29 Maybe they won't have to invest another five picks on interior linemen on the offense.
24:33 They know what these players can do.
24:35 So I would just be ready to hand the reins over towards it.
24:38 But it was one where it's like, it's such a different discussion than what it was with
24:41 under Belichick with exactly what you said.
24:44 First quarter of the season is an extension of preseason.
24:47 Second quarter is trying to figure out what your team is good at, like testing the limits
24:51 on those things.
24:52 The third quarter of the season and the fourth quarter of the season is really just focusing
24:56 on, okay, we can do these 10 things really well.
24:58 Let's do that.
24:59 That's our identity and being able to really define that.
25:02 And I feel like we're going into this stretch of, it's not trying to figure out what can
25:05 the team do well, it's who on the team can do things well.
25:08 And that's a very different discussion to have.
25:10 It most certainly is.
25:11 And another big plus of this season versus last season, I'm sure you remember Rich Hill
25:15 when Mac Jones wasn't performing that well in 2023.
25:20 And what the chants were from the Patriots crowd, we want Bailey Zappi.
25:26 Not exactly a confidence instilling quarterback, but they wanted just anything, any port in
25:30 the storm, just try and switch something up.
25:32 I will be a little happier and a little more confident if Jacoby Percet's not performing
25:37 for the "We Want Drake May" chants.
25:39 That's a little more of an upgrade than Bailey Zappi.
25:41 Oh my gosh, totally.
25:43 I think that this will be Drake May's show at this point regardless, probably late November,
25:49 early December.
25:50 What's up guys, Alex Shane here from Patriots First and Goal, and I want to make sure y'all
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27:17 Which goes into our fourth and goal, where they come off that bye week in week 14 and
27:21 they have at Arizona, at Buffalo, pretty rough stretch there, and then they're home to close
27:25 out against the Chargers and the Bills.
27:28 Both of those games are TBD.
27:30 The only way either of those games go to primetime is if there's some kind of massive playoff
27:34 seating for LA and Buffalo, because the Patriots are not going to be in playoff contention
27:39 at that point.
27:40 But those are probably going to be 1 p.m. games as well.
27:43 11 1 p.m. games, possibly 13 1 p.m. games for New England.
27:48 That is unprecedented.
27:49 They're usually at least five primetime games.
27:51 It is wild to see them.
27:52 No Monday night game for the Patriots this year.
27:54 That one primetime game, like you mentioned, Thursday night early in September, then it's
27:57 just the local broadcast.
27:59 That's where we're at so far.
28:01 In terms of this last stretch, it's the Bills.
28:04 Maybe the Bills are resting everybody week 18.
28:06 The Chargers might be resting people week 17.
28:08 I doubt it.
28:09 They're probably still going to be in the playoff hunt because they're in the AFC West.
28:11 Arizona, I think, is beatable.
28:14 At Buffalo, probably not.
28:15 This could also be a one and four, maybe two and two stretch if someone sets some starters.
28:21 Yeah, totally.
28:22 Well, I mean, I think Patriots, my prediction is that there'll be like five and eight going
28:26 into this stretch.
28:28 And I think that the Cardinals game is winnable.
28:33 Not going to say it's easy because you got to go across the country.
28:36 They have Kyler, they have the potential.
28:39 But now we're looking at the stage of the season where injuries play a lot.
28:44 High variance is very real when you look at depth charts.
28:48 It's wild to me that there's two Bills games in the final three weeks of the season.
28:52 My goodness, the Bills are going to be like looking at that and be like, okay, this is
28:56 our path to the playoffs.
28:57 This is our we cannot drop any of these for the sake of trying to get a first round by
29:02 like they're going to be very difficult games on that one.
29:07 But I think as I said, I think the Patriots gonna be like five and eight coming into this
29:09 one.
29:10 There's a chance the chance as you said that they could go to and to in this weirder things
29:15 have happened.
29:16 And if they finish the season, you know, seven and 10.
29:20 I'll be very happy.
29:22 That's very realistic.
29:23 It is a sudden again, seven and 10 is not maybe great for me, you know, top five draft
29:28 pick perspective, but I've never been the guy to like tank for tank for two.
29:31 I never wanted to do something like that.
29:33 They have their quarterback and they have a quarterback.
29:35 They don't need a top five pick.
29:36 They can get talent in the top 10 pick of the draft next year.
29:41 I'm very curious as well, Rich, I think it's a really weird move by the NFL to do Buffalo
29:46 Chargers Buffalo to close out the season.
29:48 If the Patriots and Bills were both good teams, it might make some sense.
29:52 But I think maybe since the Patriots upset the Bills last year, there's some kind of
29:57 upset pick here.
29:58 But I don't think this is a very kind of from a narrative perspective, some kind of sexy
30:02 postseason push matchup here.
30:05 I know they always like to close out against divisional opponents.
30:08 But if I'm Buffalo, I'm very happy with this.
30:10 You have to go on the road, but going to New England is no longer a scary thing.
30:13 If you're the Bills.
30:14 Yeah, I guess on the plus side, they're very, very likely to be out of postseason contention
30:20 well before week 16, which is their last away game of the season.
30:25 And they can kind of just start packing up early from week 17 and 18 and then get out
30:29 of there and start their offseason.
30:31 Again, not the worst way to end the season.
30:33 But yeah, I can see another one and four stretch here, which isn't the most joyous way to close
30:39 out 2024.
30:40 But again, based on the schedule, I think at this point, we're just going to be like,
30:44 let's get me to 2025.
30:46 Totally.
30:47 This madness, you know, totally.
30:49 It's a very different fandom year where like last year, it was heart wrenching to see that
30:55 this team that we thought that could pull it together that could get just a wildcard,
31:00 not expecting much, just to have the fourth before fallout.
31:03 I was just miserable.
31:05 Now expectations are shifted a little bit.
31:07 This is full rebuild.
31:09 If they, you know, obviously, like what I said, seven and 10 would be a great year,
31:13 six and six and 11.
31:15 I'd be fine with that.
31:16 You know, you're picking top 12 at that point.
31:18 I mean, like if they if they have fewer than five wins, it'll again be just like a disappointment
31:23 from an output perspective.
31:24 But again, we're talking bottom of the barrel kind of records here.
31:27 I'm not looking for them to be a contender.
31:30 I'm looking for them to set up signs of promise for the future.
31:33 And if in these final four weeks, Drake may is the starter and he has some good days.
31:39 That'll be nice.
31:40 That'll be nice to see if you see like, okay, I feel like the offensive line has settled
31:45 in and it's because these young players that we picked because in Wallace is doing well
31:51 on the left side because of what line Robinson is doing well at left guard, whatever the
31:56 reasons might be.
31:58 If we feel like the young players are doing pretty well, then that will give hope for
32:02 next year.
32:03 It'll be something to build off of.
32:04 Even if they're not competitive overall this season, it'll give them a much better view
32:08 of what they need to get a free agency next year.
32:11 The entire focus of this year is rebuild and figuring out if you have any pieces to rebuild
32:17 around.
32:18 And I feel like that final quarter of the season will be not something I'm looking for
32:21 them to make the wild card on.
32:23 It'll be very revealing to see against this type of caliber talent final three weeks of
32:26 the year.
32:27 Who's worth keeping?
32:28 Yeah, I told them to hang with some teams.
32:31 You know, I think the real kick, the real kick in the nuts last season was just like
32:34 the way they lost was just so embarrassing.
32:36 They just shot themselves in the foot.
32:38 They had all these opportunities, you know, yeah, they had all these opportunities to
32:41 let's like win some games late and they couldn't do it.
32:44 You know, they made the mistakes that kind of like safeties in the end zone and awful
32:48 interceptions and just blowing coverages and just things you don't want to see.
32:52 So uncharacteristic if they go oh and 16, but they lose every game by like three points.
32:56 I'd be very happy.
32:57 Oh, and 17 like rock on.
32:59 I'm okay with that.
33:00 Just show some more fight, show some more heart.
33:02 But yeah, I feel like I'm hoping at least we can close out the 2024 season with this
33:08 last four game stretch with at least you know what, there's some things we saw we really
33:12 liked we can build on that in January, February and beyond have a nice good draft pick in
33:16 2025 a lot of cap space again, and maybe they can maybe they can make a splash.
33:22 Maybe maybe be a wild card contender depending on a couple things in 2025 probably more 2026
33:27 on the how young the roster is and how an experienced roster is right now.
33:31 But what I'm hoping doesn't happen.
33:32 This is a great opportunity for Gerard Mayo to keep his team focused because I feel like
33:36 a schedule like this, this kind of murderers row of games and travel.
33:40 It can be very easy for a new coach to to kind of lose the locker room a little bit.
33:45 Things go off the rails.
33:46 So this is a really good opportunity for Gerard Mayo to show some leadership, examine himself,
33:50 show how he can keep this team together, even though they're out of it, keep them motivated
33:54 and promise good things for the future.
33:56 So that's really what I'm looking for next year.
33:57 Totally.
33:58 I mean, like also as a fan to this is probably the first time in maybe 30 years, there's
34:03 been no expectations.
34:04 Maybe you could say the 2000 Patriots with Bill Belichick in his first year, there was
34:08 low expectations, but like, probably since they took drew blood.
34:11 So this is the first year they've had no expectations because they made it to the Super Bowl with
34:16 parcels the entire time under Pete Carroll was just a feeling of disappointment and underperformance.
34:22 And then almost immediately with Bill Belichick, they made it to the Super Bowl and won it.
34:26 And then the entire tenure of Bill Belichick had that pressure of them needing to do something
34:32 even when they didn't have the most ideal roster, the expectation was that they would
34:36 be competitive.
34:37 So this is the first time as fans that we're going into the year where it's like, hey,
34:42 who knows, who knows, anything can happen.
34:45 And I'm not going to feel the pressure of like, we're wasting a year of Tom Brady's
34:50 career.
34:51 We're not giving Bill Belichick a chance to get the all time wins record.
34:54 This is a year where everything is fresh.
34:57 Everything is brand new.
34:58 I'm going to embrace it.
35:00 I'm excited for this team just to be able to show what they can do.
35:02 I don't know.
35:03 It's kind of like college football in a sense where it's like you get a new cast of characters
35:06 every year.
35:08 No expectations unless you know you have all those five star recruits and the Patriots
35:11 don't.
35:12 So this year, then it's great underdog story.
35:16 If not, it's exactly what we expected.
35:18 And then we'll move into the next year of the rebuild and see what we have.
35:21 We are who we thought we were.
35:23 That is exactly correct.
35:24 It should be a lot of fun.
35:25 So yeah, so that is our Patriots schedule game time recap or game time release powered
35:30 podcast extra point Richie.
35:32 I know you kind of touched on a little bit.
35:33 We talked about expectations and how low they are.
35:36 I know you talked about maybe seven and 10.
35:39 Would you say seven and 10 is your realistic ceiling for this team?
35:44 And if that is your realistic ceiling, give me your maybe realistic floor for the scene.
35:48 What's the worst record you see them getting in 2024?
35:50 Totally.
35:51 I mean, realistic ceiling wise, I could see them going eight and nine.
35:55 That's one where I'm like, you just have a few bounces go your way.
35:58 You look at their record in one score games last year, and it was something like two and
36:02 nine or something like that.
36:03 We, I mean, you just mentioned this, the number of games that they lost because they couldn't
36:06 score a touchdown was at least three.
36:10 And so if they can just have not even an average offense, just a not a bad offense, they're
36:17 going to win some of those games.
36:19 And that's always, always, always the biggest driver of regression back to the mean is one
36:24 score games.
36:26 And they likely not guaranteed, likely won't be as bad as they were last year.
36:31 And so that's how they get their path back up there.
36:33 Maybe they even get a little lucky on some games.
36:35 That's how you can get to eight, nine.
36:38 More likely I'm expecting to be a six win team.
36:41 Worst case scenario, absolute worst case scenario here.
36:44 I see them being like a three and 14 team.
36:47 There's some games that like I as I said, they could start Oh, and eight and I wouldn't
36:52 be like, super surprised.
36:54 But that Titans game, that Colts game, those are games that I feel like they should be
36:59 able to win like will look like it's like they should be able to beat them.
37:03 Anthony Richardson coming up the Colts major should be able to beat them like last year,
37:08 that Colts game was so embarrassing.
37:09 Patience should be able to win if they can score a couple times, not even saying touchdowns,
37:15 couple scores, they should be okay.
37:18 And then they should absolutely be able to squeeze like one other win out somewhere along
37:21 this calendar.
37:22 But I would say like a three and 14 floor is very reasonable.
37:26 Well, we're used to three and 14.
37:28 Unfortunately, around here after last season, so it's not like it's a total total shocker.
37:32 But yeah, look, they can beat the Seahawks.
37:35 They can split with the Jets.
37:36 They can beat the Jaguars.
37:37 They can beat the Titans.
37:39 They can beat the Bears.
37:40 They can beat the Colts.
37:41 They can beat the Rams.
37:43 They can beat the Cardinals.
37:44 What's that?
37:45 That's eight wins right there, right?
37:47 And maybe they sneak out one win against some team.
37:49 They upset somebody that's how your charges are always going to collapse.
37:53 Yeah, the baby charges late and maybe like they and maybe like they upset like the dolphins
37:58 of the bills or something like that.
37:59 Like I can see a really ridiculous if they win every game they should win.
38:05 And they sneak out an upset against like one team.
38:08 That's like a nine win season, I think.
38:10 However, there's always that one game they probably should have won.
38:13 They're going to lose.
38:14 So that's kind of cancels that out.
38:17 But yeah, I mean, I'd be so happy with an eight win season.
38:20 Holy cow, that makes me ecstatic.
38:22 I don't know about three and 14.
38:24 I think maybe five wins is probably my my my my floor unless something really goes wrong.
38:30 I think I think they can I think I think five wins is and you want to win more than you
38:34 want last season.
38:35 I mean, obviously, it's totally new team total rebuild.
38:38 But I can see I can see a five win season, maybe a little being too optimistic here.
38:41 But I can see him definitely beating the Jaguars.
38:43 I see him beating the Titans, see him beating the, the bears, the Colts, and then the Jets.
38:48 I think those are my my five very comfortable wins.
38:51 The rest can go either way.
38:52 See that I mean, definitely sounds like a very reasonable expectation.
38:57 And then obviously, like, for me, beyond record, I honestly I don't think record really matters.
39:03 What I want to see more than anything is promise.
39:08 Whether it's Hey, Alex van Pelt can call a really good offense.
39:12 I like how the position they're putting the players in to succeed.
39:16 If we had a player with a little bit more ability, I see what's happening.
39:19 Amazing.
39:20 DeMarcus Cummington seamless transition on defense.
39:24 Cool.
39:25 Drake may has a few snaps here or there even likes takes over the reins.
39:29 It looks commendable.
39:30 Awesome.
39:31 So the lot of these rookies or second year players that they have are stepping up into
39:36 the starting lineup.
39:37 And it's not terrifying.
39:39 It's not like watching some of you know, who is the guard that they put in?
39:44 They're not city Sal, but just a Tony Maffei.
39:47 Yeah, it's like, Oh, no.
39:50 Oh, no, no, no, no.
39:53 And if we don't have those moments, if we're like, Okay, maybe they're not an elite player,
39:57 but this is their first or second year and they're looking capable.
40:00 Awesome.
40:01 That's what I want coming out of this year.
40:03 More than anything with the record is I want a feeling that okay, they got some pieces
40:07 to play with and something to build around.
40:10 Well, the good news is Rich Hill, we are quite crazily we're not that far away from the start
40:15 of mini camp and OTAs and offseason and training camp and preseason.
40:19 It's coming around the corner.
40:20 I'm always blown away by how quickly the offseason flies by and how much there is to talk about
40:26 when literally nothing is going on.
40:28 It's pretty impressive how we're able to ramble on about things like this.
40:31 So good for us.
40:32 I'm excited about it.
40:33 Anything else I'll talk about before we get out of here?
40:37 Nope.
40:38 I'm just looking forward to camp and whenever people start putting pads on.
40:41 That's right, man.
40:42 All right, dude.
40:43 Well, good talking to you.
40:44 And we'll talk soon, man.
40:45 All right.
40:46 Until next time, you have a good one.
40:46 [Music]
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