This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. The sunshine has finally arrived this week, how warm will it get, how long will it last and what should you be doing to prepare. Find out all of this and more. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Annie Shuttleworth.
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00:00Is the sunshine here to stay? Well you can find out with me over the next 20 to
00:0530 minutes. Welcome along to our latest deep dive. Hello I'm Annie, I'm a
00:10meteorologist and presenter here at Met Office HQ in Exeter. If you've never
00:14watched a deep dive before they last about 20 to 30 minutes and we go over
00:19the week's weather in more detail and we look a little bit further ahead as well
00:23if you watch them every week. Welcome back, don't forget to subscribe and like
00:27and share this video with anyone else you think that might enjoy this type of
00:32video. But I think most of us are going to be enjoying the weather this week. I
00:36certainly am as I'm a fan of the dry and sunny weather but we have had our fair
00:41share of wet weather recently particularly through the start of May. I
00:44think some places have already seen a month's worth of rainfall and over the
00:48weekend we did see an area of low pressure you can see on the satellite
00:51image that swept up some wet weather particularly to the southeast and some
00:55heavy showers broke out but now we're starting to see pressure build. So
00:58although areas of rain are moving in from the Atlantic they're being pushed
01:02up to the north and west as pressure is building across the UK. So how does that
01:08look? Well let's have a look at the pressure pattern for the rest of this
01:12week. So as I said pressure is building, high pressure is going to be dominating
01:16our weather this week. It's moving up from the south and west and will become
01:20pretty much centered across the UK by the time we get to the middle of the
01:24week but as I said there is still some weather moving in across from the
01:28Atlantic as there often is and that will affect parts of the northwest from time
01:33to time but it's going to be restricted to the northwest and we'll make very
01:36little progress elsewhere across the UK. Now as we head towards Thursday and
01:41Friday that high pressure becomes a little bit more centered to the south
01:44and east of the UK. We'll start to pick up more of a southerly wind direction
01:48and that will allow temperatures to climb a little bit higher through Friday
01:52and into Saturday and it's Saturday when we start to see this more southerly wind
01:56direction. This more southerly wind direction that will allow temperatures
02:01to build and that's when we're likely to see the peak of our temperatures in the
02:04mid 20s. We could see 26 degrees on Saturday. However although it's something
02:11many of us have been looking forward to it is unlikely to last into next week.
02:15That's because this trough we call in the ice bars will likely to develop into
02:20an area of low pressure as we head towards Sunday evening and into Monday.
02:24There is some uncertainty in exactly how that's going to play out through Sunday
02:29in particular so please check out our 10-day trend for more details on that
02:33tomorrow. I'll cover it in a little bit of detail later on in this video what
02:37transition we can expect for next week a bit of an overview but for the time
02:41being we've got temperatures rising high pressure in situ as high pressure sits
02:46across the UK for a few days. Temperatures will rise day on day as
02:51well because days are longer than nights at this time of year. Heating time is
02:55greater than cooling time so temperatures will rise day on day and we
02:59are going to see more and more in the way of sunshine and less and less in the
03:03way of rainfall. Let's have a closer look at what we can expect through this week.
03:09So this is the cloud and rain for this week. Let's just play it through. So
03:14throughout today we have had some cloud around but there's been some sunny
03:18spells we've had highs of around 21 degrees across the south coast many
03:21areas into the mid to high teens as well. Through this evening though we'll
03:24start to see some cloud pulling in across the east coast so we'll turn a
03:28bit murkier and actually through this evening we will see some murky mornings
03:31and evenings some mist and fog around. That's because we've got some weather
03:35fronts up to the northwest and we will start to see some clouds spilling over
03:39from those weather fronts. They could allow that could allow some drizzly rain
03:43to develop across parts of northern areas of England, southern Scotland,
03:46Northern Ireland as well but much of the rain is going to be very much
03:50restricted to northwestern Scotland. It's particularly Wednesday into Thursday
03:54when we'll see the heaviest rain here. But further south plenty of dry bright
03:59and sunny weather and it will start to feel quite warm in that sunshine if
04:03you've not thought it was warm already. Temperatures will be rising above
04:08average for the time of year. Then as we head towards Friday and Saturday there
04:12are a few showers around but most areas still dry and it's Saturday those
04:16weather fronts push further away from northwestern Scotland so perhaps the
04:20far western isles perhaps the northern isles seeing some of that rain but I
04:23think much of Scotland should see the benefit of that dry and bright weather
04:27through Saturday as well. Let's take a little closer look at how much rain that
04:32we can expect through this week. So let's have a look at the 24-hour rainfall
04:38totals. I'm going to go through this quite quickly because there's not a lot
04:41to look at but it does give us a good idea and demonstrate that it is
04:46definitely going to be quite a dry week so a good week to be getting out and
04:49about. So this is 24 hours and hang on here we are 24 hours between this
04:55afternoon this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon so some drizzly showers across
05:02parts of northern England and the Lake District, southern Scotland as well
05:06across the Grampians and in particular is the Western Isles so we start to see
05:09some rainfall. And then Thursday afternoon as I said it's Wednesday into
05:13Thursday when we start to see the heaviest rainfall parts of the Highlands
05:17and particularly the Western Isles but also pushing pushing into more
05:21northeastern areas of Scotland perhaps some areas of Northern Ireland as well
05:25seeing some rainfall but you see by and large most areas white which means no
05:29rainfall at all and so definitely staying dry. Let's use our extended data
05:34to look at Thursday to Friday and that's when the rain starts to push away so
05:42most areas getting away with a pretty dry day away from the odd shower when
05:46the cloud is thick enough for that so definitely going to get getting drier
05:50and also warmer this week. Let's have a look at what the temperatures are going
05:57to climb to this week so these are the maximum temperatures across the UK and
06:01this is for today as I said we've got to 20 we're just over 21 so far today we
06:06could get a little bit closer to 22 before the day is out but I think
06:10temperatures are going to peak on Saturday so through tomorrow a similar
06:13feel to today a little bit cooler for some areas with a bit more cloud around
06:17particularly across the east coast when the morning it could be a little bit of
06:20a cooler day but there's still going to be plenty of dry and bright weather
06:23around and the winds are quite light too. Thursday temperatures climbing closer to
06:2923 degrees we could see 24 degrees on Thursday particularly across the south
06:34and east and then on Friday 24 and once again on Friday possibly closer to 25
06:42degrees and as I said on Saturdays when it peaks you can see we've got this
06:46deeper these deeper orange colours coming up further north into parts of
06:50northern England and that shows that we could see a more widespread warm day
06:55even temperatures into the 20s across northern areas across parts of the
06:59central belt in Scotland as well and it's 26 degrees that we could see on
07:03Saturday which would be the hottest day of the year so far we've reached just
07:06over 23 degrees so far this year I believe so we're likely to top that by
07:12Saturday and these temperatures are above average let's have a look at the
07:18the average temperature for this time of year you can see we're starting to see
07:26temperatures climb above average and through today and tomorrow just here and
07:32there but it's actually Thursday when we more widely start to see those higher
07:36teens come in and then Friday another widely warm day even up and cross
07:41Scotland and Northern Ireland and it's going to be a warmer day as well and
07:45then Saturday we get the reds that shows nine degrees above average for this time
07:50of year in quite a few spots across the UK I think everyone is going to be
07:54feeling very warm on Saturday in particular and thankfully if you are
07:59looking for warm and dry and sunny weather it has come at the weekend for
08:03once and it's become a come a bit more widely across the UK recently we've had
08:08the best of the warm and dry weather and sunny weather across northwestern
08:12Scotland actually some of our highest temperatures we've seen so far this
08:15year have been all across northwestern Scotland so a bit of a change around for
08:18this week with them seeing some of the cooler weather this week now as I said
08:26temperatures will be peaking on on Saturday for most places let's just show
08:33you how the trend goes up so I said we'll be probably just getting warmer
08:37and warmer on day on day so this is somewhere across the Midlands not too
08:42far from Birmingham you can see there's just a trend upwards through this week
08:47and the temperatures climbing towards the mid-twenties by Saturday by Saturday
08:51and then Sunday although it does stay quite warm on this graph because of the
08:55uncertainty I would take Sunday with a pinch of salt we wouldn't use anything
08:59deterministic for Sunday and at this stage due to that uncertainty even
09:04across the south coast temperatures climbing quite widely it's into the
09:07southwest as well and that will start to see temperatures climb could see a
09:13little dip in the temperatures for some areas and for Wednesday into Thursday
09:17not very much but it could feel a little bit cool it depends when the cloud comes
09:21in we've got some clouds coming in off the east coast also that cloud coming
09:25over from the weather front so the cloud will still be making all the difference
09:29with the temperatures and exactly how high they'll be but widely as I said by
09:33Thursday we're above average and will be above average temperatures in the high
09:38teens will feel warm in the sunshine with light winds as well and with all of
09:43that although it is welcome news for many of us that does come with some
09:47complications with temperatures rising and more in the way of sunshine we do
09:51start to see more of our summer hazards such as pollen and rising UV levels and
09:57although you may know some of this already it's worth reminding yourself as
10:00we've come into the summer season of how you can deal with them how to keep up
10:04with the forecast and what forecast means so first of all let's have a look
10:11at our pollen levels for this week so I think this one's going to be pollen
10:16there we are so this is for today we've got high levels and this graph just
10:22shows you high moderate and low levels or we can get to very high as well and
10:26but at the moment this week we've just got high levels as our highest
10:29temperatures so we see high levels across across the south through today
10:36and how does that change to tomorrow well we continue to see some quite high
10:40levels across the south moderate levels becoming a bit more widely spread into
10:44parts of Scotland and also by Thursday and we've got levels increasing at
10:51Friday moderate levels all the way up in Scotland as well apart away from the
10:55Northern Isles and then Saturday and high levels still across the south so it
11:00doesn't necessarily increase when the temperature increases there are a lot of
11:03factors at play with the pollen season as well and if you don't know this
11:08already then you might find this quite interesting and there are lots of
11:11different types of pollen people suffer from different types of pollen as well
11:1595% of hay fever sufferers suffer from hay fever pollen and from grass pollen
11:21excuse me suffer their hay fever is triggered by grass pollen you might not
11:27you might be affected by multiple types of pollen as well and but the season
11:31changes so how can you find out a bit more information on that well I have
11:35something called a pollen calendar let's find it here it is it's the pollen
11:41calendar you can find this on our website if you type in pollen calendar
11:44Met Office this should come up and it shows you all the different types of
11:48pollen or the main types of pollen that people suffer with and when you can
11:52expect that season to start so as I said most people 95% of hay fever sufferers
11:57suffer are affected by grass pollen now that season doesn't tend to start until
12:02late April it can start a little earlier than that and in fact this year we did
12:06see it start a little earlier than that particularly have a mild winter you can
12:09see the grass season start earlier and also the oak season start earlier so
12:14with our winters getting milder with climate change we're actually likely to
12:17start to see that pollen season shift a little bit into the future as well but
12:22this gives you a good idea of when you can expect those seasons to start so tree
12:25is the first one there's lots more types of tree but fewer people are affected by
12:30it and that starts as early as January so if you're a tree pollen sufferer this
12:34will be old news to you as you will have been battling the elements for a few
12:38months now but most of us will start to see feel the effects of grass pollen and
12:43then the season ends with weed pollen but there's a less of fewer people are
12:47affected by that and how can you how can you be prepared for the pollen levels
12:53to rise well make sure you have a look at what the pollen levels are expected
12:57to be in your area you can find that out on our website and our app as well that
13:02gives a location specific level as well and make sure you're prepared the best
13:06thing to do is to take antihistamines beforehand make sure you minimize
13:10exposure possible you can close windows and I'm not a hay fever sufferer myself
13:14but my husband is so I'm aware of what things you can do he suffers from tree
13:19pollen and grass pollen so it's pretty much taking antihistamines most most of
13:23the year but if you are suffering from grass pollen you'll be wanting to get
13:28your antihistamines out as we head towards the weekend if that is what you
13:32do to help yourself ease and the effects of your hay fever there's another thing
13:38to consider with that's not what I wanted to do yeah with pollen is that
13:46although we have a level for an area it can vary quite widely as well so the
13:51coast is quite a good example of that so although the levels are going to be high
13:55this is this afternoon high at the coast if you have an onshore wind actually
14:00you're with the wind is coming from the sea and there's not a lot of pollen or
14:03grass over the sea obviously and so levels are going to be much lower at the
14:07coast than the number or the level may suggest and so that is something worth
14:12considering and on the other hand of that if you live right next to a birch
14:17forest and you suffer from birch pollen and then and you live right next to it
14:22the winds coming from that direction then levels are probably going to be a
14:25bit higher than the low it may suggest on your app so you need to consider
14:29local effects and we're learning more and more about pollen and at the moment
14:33here at the Met Office and we'll be giving you more more details into the
14:36future on that as well so pollen is on the rise but also our UV levels are on
14:42the rise as well let's have a look so UV levels are done in number form
14:47anything above 3 is when you need to start considering protection a small
14:51amount of UV exposure is good for you because it helps you produce vitamin D
14:56which is really important but you only need a small amount actually anything
15:00and then if you get too much exposure you can have some really nasty things
15:04like sunburn and it can lead to skin cancer as well so it's really important
15:08that you wear SPF don't spend too long in the Sun and particularly through the
15:13peak heat hours the Sun that the peak UV levels and hours that sort of mid
15:18afternoon from lunchtime onwards until the middle of the afternoon so levels
15:23are on the rise particularly on Thursday we've got high levels and reaching six
15:29quite widely across the UK and then on Saturday in particular is when I think
15:34it's going to be a very hot or very warm day excuse me very warm day and with
15:39high UV levels and pollen so although it's dry and bright and nice and warm it
15:45will be you will probably start to feel some of the effects of summer as well
15:49through the next few days so that's something worth considering if you want
15:55any more details on how to get ready for the summer make sure you have a look
16:00at our weather ready campaign you can find that on our website and there's
16:04lots of advice on how to get ready for the summer how to prepare your garden
16:09your home and if you're doing activities your behaviors will need to change as we
16:14transition into that warmer weather and I think you'll definitely be feeling the
16:16effects of the heat through this week so make sure you take plenty of water if
16:20you're out exercising find shade if you need it but also enjoy the summery
16:25weather right that is for this week we obviously need to consider that as well
16:31oh actually I've just remembered there's one more thing I was going to talk to
16:34you about for UV levels and and that's another thing that can affect there is
16:39another thing that can affect UV levels I will cover this because I think it's
16:42quite interesting and UV levels can also be affected by ozone levels ozone is
16:49actually one of the key drivers or the amount of ozone in the stratosphere is
16:53one of the key drivers as to how much how high the UV levels are in the UK
16:57because it is the key thing that absorbs UV radiation and you can get ozone
17:05levels depleted from time to time here in the UK and this map here shows us and
17:11can show you when you can expect any of those ozone depletions now and here in
17:18the UK we don't see often there's quite transient a quite transient thing but as
17:22ozone levels are very much dictated by the temperature in the stratosphere it's
17:27at this time of year when this when the polar vortex has broken down that we can
17:32see ozone level low ozone levels varying from normal or typical to this time of
17:38year so if you don't know already we have talked about it in previous deep
17:42dives the polar vortex is vortex that develops in the stratosphere it traps all
17:46the colder air up in the poles and but it does break down it throughout the
17:50spring and as it does it can allow lobes of depleted ozone levels to swing
17:56past and bring higher levels of UV to the UK now this is the forecast for
18:03Friday this week and you can see there's a green blob over the UK now if we look
18:08at the scale you can see green is about minus 10 so that shows the depletion in
18:13ozone that can have some effect on UV levels but we really wouldn't be
18:17considering it to be anything that's important unless it was less than minus
18:2120 so we're not looking at it in any too much detail this week and but it is
18:28something we monitor we've got a hazards bench upstairs here in Met Office HQ
18:31they monitor these sorts of things and let us know when UV levels may be higher
18:35than expected because ozone levels are lower but if we sometimes we do get
18:40lobes of even lower vorticity some of those minus 20 they are fairly rare
18:44they don't happen for a prolonged period of time or that often but it's
18:47around springtime that they do tend to happen so if we had this kind of blob
18:51that's over more across eastern areas of Europe and you may we may and that was
18:56over the UK then we would start to say UV levels are high but they're probably
19:00going to be even higher than the numbers might suggest because of no zone
19:04depletion just for a time that's something to consider we'll be keeping
19:07an eye on that and let you know if there are any things any more similar
19:10situations coming up in the forecast right okay so we've gone over this week
19:16and what we can expect for this week a bit in a bit more detail and what's
19:21coming up what you need to be doing and to prepare for that summery weather but
19:25I think lots of us will be wondering how long is this going to last packing away
19:30my jumpers but do I need to keep them away will I need them back again should
19:34have been making summary plans barbecue plans going to the beach into next week
19:38as well well and unfortunately I think there's going to be a bit of a break
19:44down to the weather from Sunday onwards I explained a little bit of detail
19:49earlier and that is quite low confidence is the confidence chart you can see
19:52we've got high confidence for this lovely high pressure this week but
19:55actually from Saturday Sunward Sunday onwards and we start to see confidence
20:00decrease quite dramatically for the rest of the weekend and into next week so I
20:07can't add too much detail on exactly what we can expect but I'm going to give
20:11you a good idea and that I can show you with the pressure pattern the most
20:15likely pressure pattern for next week and we're going to start to see low
20:18pressure dominating across the UK particularly across southern areas I
20:22think northern areas could see the drier weather more often the blues on this map
20:27show lower than average pressure the pinks are higher than average pressure
20:30this is the anomaly map from ECM WF which is the European long-range model
20:35and so low pressure is probably going to return for next week and that means
20:40we'll likely start to see quite a lot more in the way of wet weather across
20:46more southern areas of the UK in particular but that wet weather could
20:49spread up across much of the UK and through the week as well this graph
20:55shows this map shows that we should we could see drier than average weather
20:59across northwestern Scotland as well I think because we have got lower
21:02confidence at the moment the wet weather we can't really pin down exactly
21:06where that wet weather is more likely to be but it does look like the low
21:09pressures are going to be centered across more southern areas and to the
21:12south of the UK most likely but that doesn't mean to say that it would never
21:16push up to the north at all and but also there probably will still be some drier
21:21days next week but I does it like from Sunday particularly Monday onwards it's
21:25going to turn that much more unsettled now that has implications on the
21:29temperature so we're just getting used to it being much milder or warmer than
21:34it has been this week and then you can see we've got this is Edinburgh on the
21:40north Reading on the south excuse me Edinburgh on the top Reading on the
21:45south north south and we've on the bottom so I'm getting completely muddled
21:51up here but you can see for both of Edinburgh and Reading and temperatures
21:56after going above average closer to our climate extremes for this time of year
22:02and they will return much closer to average for next week and towards next
22:08weekend as well for both north and southern areas I think that's a good
22:12representation of what we can expect there'll be a lot more cloud around
22:14rainier days and temperatures are much closer to average as well but still it
22:20is May it will be feeling still fairly warm in any sunnier days but you're
22:25gonna have to keep up to date with the details of the forecast every day I
22:27think it's going to be a week where you'll be wanting to check the forecast
22:29unlike this week where day on day it does not that much in the way of change
22:35so I think the best message for you is to enjoy the weather while it lasts this
22:41week if you are waiting for that summery weather and hopefully you can make the
22:45most of it throughout Saturday and I think much of Sunday should be fine
22:49Alex will have more on the 10-day trend for what you can expect for this weekend
22:54so make sure you check in with that for the latest updates on that confidence
22:58will grow through this week and there are tentative signs after a bit of an
23:02unsettled end to May that June will see the return of dry and brighter weather
23:08so we'll be definitely keeping a close eye on that for you over the next few
23:12days but if you are heading to the beach or heading out for this weekend make
23:15sure you check out our weather ready advice online remember the sea is still
23:19very cold at this time of year so it might bring you a bit of a shock and but
23:23I do hope you enjoy the sunshine this week thank you very much for joining me
23:27bye bye