Forbes Reporter Matt Craig sat down with Forbes Senior Reporter Jabari Young to talk about the men's and women's March Madness tournaments. They touch on everything from the teams favored to win, the eye popping amount Americans are expected to gamble this year and how much people are paying to see Iowa's Caitlin Clark play.
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SportsTranscript
00:00 March Madness is in full effect as one of America's most wagered on sports competitions is back.
00:06 That's right. The N.C.A.A. tournament will tell you what you need to know about your women's brackets, the men's brackets, LSU,
00:12 Caitlin Clark, breaking it all down with our sports writer, my Forbes colleague, Matt Craig, right now.
00:21 Nice, man. Nice. I mean, listen, you're a former college basketball reporter anyway, right?
00:26 We both worked at the same place, the Athletic. And you also worked at SB Nation.
00:29 So here we are. March Madness, man, a bracket challenge.
00:33 What's the biggest story lines as we head into the tournament? Looking at it from the women's side and the men's.
00:38 Listen, the women's side, I think they're way more popular this year. We all know Caitlin Clark, South Carolina, LSU, the defending champions.
00:44 But let's start with the men's, since we all know who the women are. This is rare, right?
00:48 We don't know a lot about men's college basketball or at least maybe the general public doesn't.
00:51 What are the story lines heading into the tournament? And we're already in it now. First round underway.
00:56 Yeah, sure. I think that's the biggest storyline is UConn. They're the favorite to win it all.
01:02 If they do, they will be the first team to repeat as national champs since 2006 and 2007 Florida team.
01:10 So it's it's a very, very difficult task. However, they are the favorite to win it all.
01:16 And that would be a massive storyline. So that's something to watch for.
01:19 I think the funnest storyline, Jabari, is Long Beach State. I don't know if they'll win.
01:25 They probably won't. But they fired their head coach last Monday.
01:29 And then that coach went on to win the conference tournament as like a send off.
01:34 And they went to their first NCAA tournament since 2012. I don't know what's going to happen to that team,
01:40 especially if they were to go on a Cinderella run. Maybe the coach says, hey, it's just I can get a job somewhere else.
01:46 But that is something to watch for. I think it would be really fun to see them pull an upset.
01:51 Yeah. Yeah. I mean, man, let's along the state, definitely St. Peter's. Right. I mean, listen, we're here in Jersey City.
01:56 Got to represent St. Peter's. I know a lot to talk about there. But what would you say, man, the biggest tip?
02:02 Because this year, I mean, this is one of the biggest, you know, most bet on sports competitions in all of America.
02:08 Right. March Madness. We all love it. But what would you say? Because offices now, they do their brackets.
02:13 Right. You probably have a normal sports fan or just a general fan.
02:16 They may not know too much about the teams. Right. Or college basketball in general.
02:21 What would you say the biggest tip is when you're filling out a bracket? Yeah, I would say, well, just put some numbers on it real quick for you.
02:29 Yeah. Because I think it's staggering. The American Gaming Association estimates two point seven billion dollars will be bet on the men's and women's tournament combined.
02:39 That's double the Super Bowl. Yeah. Just for context. Now, slightly different because it was one event and this goes on over two weeks.
02:46 But just a crazy amount of money. They attempted to estimate how much money is total wagered if you count bracket pools, which is really a thing to do.
02:56 And it kept getting it wrong, Matt. It's a face at 15, like 15 billion last year.
03:00 So I saw they only did it legally. Legal bets this year. Two point. Yeah. Right. Right. Right.
03:05 So. So imagine, yeah, 15 billion is it's just it's every single person that I know in my life has some money and somewhere on a pool or a game or something.
03:15 So everyone is going to be tuning in. But my advice, if I'm qualified to even give advice, would be to kind of be selective with the upsets for one very specific reason,
03:28 is that if you're picking that upset team, you do get a leg up on the field if you if you win there.
03:34 However, if you're betting, for example, like a 15 seed against a two incredibly risky because that two seed could go on to win three or four games, multiple games.
03:44 The way you win bracket pools is not necessarily picking all the first round games correctly.
03:49 It's picking the final four teams correctly in the elite eight because the way that those bracket pools work is you earn more points as you go along in the tournament.
03:59 So even though it is really fun to like just go match up by match up, I've actually I've found it really useful to like look at the teams and think, is this a final four team?
04:10 Do I think this team is good enough to make a deep run and kind of working backwards from that?
04:15 Because ultimately, yeah, you do win these pools by picking whoever wins the national championship and picking who's going to the final four.
04:22 Yeah. You know, Matt, listen, man, I ain't gonna lie. I've never made a sports bet in my entire life.
04:27 Right. I feel guilty because, you know, we're sports writers.
04:32 My past life, I used to have all this insight and I felt guilty just cheating. I felt like I was cheating the system. This is me.
04:38 I do have friends that do it. Right. So out of all the platforms and I've talked to friends about this extensively, they always say fan duel.
04:45 They always favor fan duel. I don't know why, but out of all the sports gambling platforms, do you have a specific one or do you see one as offering a little bit more favorable odds?
04:58 I mean, I think if you are really into gambling, it is become easier now to have accounts everywhere and then kind of like check the odds on an individual basis.
05:10 Again, it kind of depends on how much time you invest in and how much you care about these things.
05:15 Oftentimes they're the exact same odds. Oftentimes they're very, very similar.
05:19 And winning the bet is more important than getting 10 points. You know what I mean?
05:26 Like a plus 120 bet, meaning you bet $10 to win $12 versus a plus 140 bet means you bet 10 to win 14.
05:36 None of that matters if you don't win the bet. Right. So like gaming the system is kind of, I don't know, it's just like a secondary concern to just, you know, trying to figure out what's going to happen and betting accordingly.
05:48 Yeah. And in-game betting has been very, very big, right? There's still latency issues that might interrupt that experience.
05:56 Do you expect to see in college basketball, do you expect to see more in-game betting maybe this year?
06:02 No, absolutely. In fact, that survey that estimated the $2.7 billion bet, I think they said something like 35 percent of that will be in-game betting.
06:12 In-game betting has gotten to be really, really big for a couple of reasons. One, people think that they have an edge because the odds change a lot.
06:22 For example, like if a heavy favorite goes down early, you can get better odds on them to win if you really think they're going to come back.
06:30 The other thing is you can bet multiple, multiple times on something that you think is going to happen.
06:35 And I think oftentimes people do that, right? If I think, for example, UConn is a 26 and a half point favorite in their first round game against Stetson,
06:43 then maybe they go down a little bit. I can bet on them again and then bet on them again.
06:47 And from a total gambling standpoint, it's a huge boon to these online sportsbooks once they kind of mastered the live betting option.
06:59 Yeah. Now, listen, man, I pay my bills, right? I'm student loans are back in. I'm paying my student loans.
07:04 Talk to that individual who might got the last 50. Over here, I got a bracket challenge for 50.
07:10 I can get in or over here. I got some in-game bets that I might want to make.
07:14 Right. Which one would you choose if you get your last dollar? Go to bracket challenge. You do in-game play.
07:19 I mean, if I'm down my last dollar, my advice is don't bet.
07:24 Well, that's why I said 50, man. You're down to your last $50.
07:29 No, I mean, there's a reason why these casinos are able to build these massive buildings and my draft kings and fan was growing 40 or 50 percent revenue year over year.
07:38 It's because the house is very, very good at setting these lines in the house.
07:42 Always. But I think it's it depends on how engaged in the games you want to be.
07:49 So one thing that is fun for me, you know, when I place bets, it makes it really, really fun to watch when you have something on the action.
07:56 I mean, that is really why these things have taken off. So if you're someone that is going to be watching every single game, it might be more fun for you to have money on the game that you're watching.
08:06 In which case, I would say live game betting can be even more fun.
08:10 It's like, oh, I'm watching the game and I feel like I have an edge on, you know, maybe this team is losing, but I really feel like they're playing well.
08:18 That might be the way to go. If you're a little bit less engaged, you know, maybe you you aren't lucky enough to watch sports during the workday, especially I live on the West Coast.
08:28 The game started 9 a.m. Yeah, I'm very thankful. I don't want a job that, you know, won't allow me to watch that TV.
08:34 Then maybe the bracket is the way to go. Right. Because you said it and kind of, you know, can forget about it or make your picks and then, you know, catch up at the end of the day and see how you did.
08:45 So I would say for me, the way I think about betting is not if I need the money, it's it's a way to, like, increase the entertainment value of watching the games.
08:56 Yeah. And that's that's me. And if you have 50 hours, maybe you shouldn't make that bet. Right.
08:59 Because as you said, Matt, you might want to hold on to it because, you know, it can leave just like that again.
09:04 Two point seven billion. The American Gaming Association is saying America is going to bet on its legal bets this year.
09:11 And again, it might be a decline from the fifteen point five billion at the estimated. But again, this is a more accurate figure, possibly two point seven billion.
09:18 Let's get into the court, man. Let's get on the court and into the action. Right. Start with the women's number one.
09:23 See South Carolina undefeated Texas, Iowa, USC. Who do you like out of the number one seeds?
09:29 Why? And I know South Carolina. Right. I'm from Philly. So don't stay. I'm rooting for them and they're undefeated.
09:36 But I got the Caitlin Clark fever, though. I mean, Caitlin Clark is is the most exciting player to watch.
09:43 No question. I saw a stat that like the tickets for the final four are already up to like three hundred ninety dollars to get in for one game because of Caitlin Clark.
09:55 And that's a crazy thing to say, because, you know, we don't even know if Taylor Clark's going to make the final four.
09:59 But there are much less upsets in the women's tournament than the men's.
10:04 So I guess people are willing to bet on that. If Taylor Clark does make it through the final four, I would definitely think that that number would go up because she is the biggest star of March.
10:14 Biggest star of March Madness, Aylan Clark, more than anyone on the inside.
10:18 Absolutely. 100 percent. This point. Yeah. But the crazy thing from a betting standpoint, especially is South Carolina is actually negative odds minus 140 to win the tournament.
10:30 So against the entire field, if you were to just at the beginning of the tournament, bet South Carolina to win.
10:35 You would actually need to bet more money is going to come back to you.
10:39 Like you would need to bet fourteen dollars to win ten dollars profit on South Carolina.
10:44 And that's I mean, that is I guess it's not unheard of because UConn back in the day had some really dominant teams that would have had some negative odds.
10:52 But on the men's side, for example, UConn is is the favorite team and they're still three and a half to one.
10:58 Yeah. Because you're betting against the field. You're betting that they would have to win six straight games.
11:03 Right. But on the women's side, South Carolina is so dominant.
11:07 They're actually negative odds to win the tournament versus Iowa's second place team to win.
11:14 And they're five and a half to one. Yeah. It's to win. So I think South Carolina is by far the team to beat.
11:20 Yeah. LSU defending champs there. You don't you're not nervous by them at all.
11:26 I mean, I think that they have a very good chance to make final four.
11:29 I think there are about seven and a half to one, depending on the sportsbook to to win it all.
11:33 I think most people would have LSU and Iowa neck and neck.
11:38 I think I was getting a slight bump on the odds just because people love to bet Caitlin Clark and Taylor Clark fever.
11:45 And that oftentimes will shift things a little bit. So I would say tier two is is Iowa and LSU.
11:52 Very dangerous. Could definitely do it. But South Carolina is on another TV this year.
11:56 Absolutely. Does the Caitlin Clark run remind you of when Steph we were all fascinated by him at Davidson that year?
12:02 And, you know, he just captured our attention. Does it remind you at all of that?
12:08 I mean, I think it's it's orders of magnitude bigger than that.
12:11 I think the closest cop would probably be Zion Williamson at Duke a few years ago because he was, you know,
12:18 regular season games were events that he was playing it. But I think this is, you know,
12:25 maybe bigger than that or even more revolutionary than that,
12:28 because it's the very first woman who we feel this way about.
12:32 I mean, again, you think about the Brianna Stewart's and the Maya Moore's and the Diana Rossi's like there have been superstars on the women's side.
12:40 No question. Right. But no one has gotten the attention that Caitlin Clark has.
12:45 And it's not just, you know, the cable networks wanting to highlight women's basketball more.
12:51 No, it's literally like you can see it in people coming out to the games and and the numbers of people tuning in.
12:57 Like the interest is there in a way that it hasn't been before because of the way she plays.
13:03 And Steph Curry, you know, at least the style of play is similar. Right.
13:08 Like crazy off balance threes. And people think that style of play, you know,
13:12 is like more relatable to to kids. And maybe that's why it's more popular.
13:17 But I think when I think of like crazy followings at the college level,
13:22 Zion and probably the most recent example for Duke and this is this is even crazier.
13:27 Yeah. The basketball aficionados might get you mad because, you know, Cheryl, Cheryl Miller, there's a whole base out there.
13:33 They will say, wait a minute, you forgot about Cheryl Miller. But definitely you're absolutely right, man.
13:36 I mean, listen, Caitlin Clark has exploded and you got to root for her because that that's just the story is just it's amazing.
13:42 I love to see so much attention being paid to women's basketball.
13:45 My daughter is engaged. So that's great to see here at Ford's.
13:49 Right. We love contrarian pieces. Right, Matt? You know, this be a contrarian now.
13:54 What team that maybe you're looking at that nobody's given a shot, but you won't be surprised if they sneak up on someone.
14:03 Yeah, well, I don't know that I should be giving this away for free because Forbes does.
14:10 Now, the team that the underdog that I'm picking through, not just one game, but two games to go to sweet 16 this year is actually make lease.
14:17 They play first round against Zaga and then second round against potentially Kansas or Sanford.
14:23 If Sanford pulls the upset there, Kansas, it should be said their leading scorer, Kevin McCuller, is out for the tournament.
14:29 I think that's a huge blow. I mean, I think if anything, it could rally them in the first round, but they are a vulnerable team.
14:37 McNeese is one of three teams in the entire country that has won 30 games this year.
14:42 They've done a lot of winning. Obviously, they're not in the conference like the big 12 or SEC or something like that, but a very, very, very good team.
14:50 And for me, they're my they're my Cinderella. They're the team I have gone through to the sweet 16.
14:55 I think, you know, deeper than that is like it's who can say. Right.
15:00 It takes a little bit of magic. But as far as pulling some upsets, I definitely like the knees.
15:06 Yeah. On the men's side, man, the number one sees there, you know, again, you mentioned UConn, UNC, Houston, Purdue.
15:13 Out of those number one sees, I'm assuming we spoke about this earlier that you kind would be your favorite out of that group.
15:19 I talked to some NBA scouts, man. I love talking to guys around this time of the year.
15:22 And I was asking them, like, who? Hey, who do you all like? And everybody says the same. Right.
15:26 You kind of one thing is, is that they warn you kind of not sneaking up on anyone this year.
15:32 They would sneak up on a lot of people. You're going to get their best shot of a team's plan.
15:36 You kind of going to get their best shot. Right. You still like UConn being as though that a lot of people are gunning to take them out.
15:46 On paper, yes. They're the most complete team. They're deep.
15:50 You know, they got size. They have great guard play, offense, defense. I mean, there's not a lot of holes there.
15:55 I actually really like Houston this year. I do, too.
15:58 Calvin Samson, man. Great coach. Great coach. They play really physical and they play really, really tough defense.
16:05 I think this time of year, their style is is very conducive to playing against lots of different kinds of teams,
16:13 because that's what you ultimately need to go through a tournament like this is you need to be able to play fast and play slow,
16:20 play defensive, grind it out games and get hot.
16:23 And you have to have like you see teams that have a very specific style.
16:28 And that is great for pulling off an upset winning one or two games.
16:31 But to get all the way through the bracket, you really have to be really adaptable.
16:35 And I really like Houston in that way. Like, for example, Purdue, as you mentioned, one number one seed.
16:42 Great team. But you know exactly what you're getting. You got Zach Eaddy in the middle, the national player of the year.
16:47 He's seven foot two. And then around him, you have guys that can shoot the ball.
16:52 They've gotten trouble this year at times when their shots aren't going in.
16:55 They're a great three point shooting team and that style works for them really well.
16:59 But they're going to kind of hit you in that one way. And if the shots aren't there, if the guard plays off, they have been vulnerable.
17:06 Right. So I think the it's not really a hot take to say, but Houston is the other team on paper that you look at and you say, wow,
17:15 they really can match up against any team in the bracket. Yeah, absolutely.
17:19 One warning, though, Matt, I was talking again and one of the scout, he sent the one.
17:24 He said, listen, don't count on Michigan State. This is Tom Izzo's time of the year.
17:29 This is what they do. Spartans play Mississippi. They open up the tournament against Mississippi, Michigan State.
17:34 Right. Are you would you be surprised if they if they elevate and they go in and they're there because, again, Tom is also bad boys, a coach.
17:42 Yeah, no. People always say, right, it's January, March is April.
17:49 But I, I think that is my of all the first round games.
17:54 That is the one I'm looking forward to watching the most. It's actually the very, very first game on Thursday.
17:59 So for me, it's like at nine fifteen in the morning on Thursday. But I am so excited for it.
18:04 Mississippi State has a great coach as well. Chris Jans. Yeah.
18:07 He used to coach over in New Mexico State and won a lot of games like twenty six, twenty seven games a year for several years.
18:13 And he's another great defensive coach. So it's going to be a really physical game.
18:16 It may it may not be the prettiest game. I think both of those teams are kind of scrappy, but I cannot wait.
18:22 And I think it's a one point spread. So like the sports books as well, I think that's going to be a really, really tight game.
18:29 So, yeah, no, of course, I would not be surprised if anyone if Michigan State makes a run.
18:35 However, they got unlucky in that they are in eight seed. Right.
18:39 Mm hmm. Ninety nine. Ninety nine. Ninety nine.
18:43 Ninety nine. That means that that second game, the second round, you got to get one seed next.
18:48 Yes. Yes. That is tough. So, you know, for them to make a run, they would have to shock some people.
18:55 Yeah. Hey, listen, they're not they're not a they're not a stranger to that, Matt.
18:59 So they definitely can. And like I said, I'm a big fan of Tom Izzo and covering the Spurs.
19:03 I remember always talking to their execs. And that's a program that they always keen on because you're always going to get a solid player when they're being coached by Tom Izzo.
19:13 All right, man, listen, I'm gonna get you out of here on the prediction front, man.
19:16 Right. I mean, we hate making predictions because once we're wrong, everybody looks at us like we're not the aficionados that I know you are, Matt.
19:23 We'll start on the women's side. Who you got? The final two teams. Who's the champion?
19:29 Well, I got to say South Carolina again. I just think they're a class above everyone else.
19:36 And as boring as it would be, I'm going to pick Iowa.
19:40 That's just me, like wishing it into existence because nothing no one in the sports world would like anything less than Clayton, Caleb Clark playing for the national championship.
19:50 So that's kind of wish fulfillment. It's kind of boring because they're probably the two best teams.
19:56 But, you know, I'm really hoping that that happens. That would be epic, man.
20:00 South Carolina, Caitlin Clark. I mean, that would be a you're talking about undefeated team Dawn Staley prominence against, you know, a phenom in Caitlin Clark.
20:08 That would be dope, man. And on the men's side, who you got? You kind of who?
20:13 I I'm actually taking Houston over you kind of my bracket.
20:17 And I think that, again, it's not the biggest hot take because Houston is the second overall seed in the tournament.
20:26 But I think that those two teams are the most complete teams. And when I think about them matching up against each other, Houston, I don't know.
20:34 I just think that they can disrupt what UConn does a little bit, especially like being able to slow the game down.
20:40 UConn's great in the open court, but Houston can kind of muck it up.
20:43 They played some really good games this year. And if I if it comes down to that matchup, I've got Houston.
20:49 So, again, not not the craziest hot take. You have two number one seeds.
20:54 But I got Houston over UConn in my championship.
20:57 What about you? What about you, Jabari? Who you got? Who you got winning?
21:00 Hey, man, listen, I love Michigan State. That's why I bought them up, man.
21:04 Like, I don't go again with the Pro Scouts telling me watch out for Michigan State.
21:08 I'm going to choose Michigan State, man. I think they knock them all off.
21:10 I think that they upset someone, man. I think they go, I'm not going to bet against Tom Mizzell because my friends who taught me a lot about basketball tell me to don't do that, man.
21:19 So, listen, and I even I'm going to take all this information that I learned from you now and I'm going to take my last bit of change here and I'm going to make a bet.
21:25 Right. And so don't let me down, man. I'm counting on all this information to be accurate, man.
21:31 No, no, I I take no responsibility for what you do with that money in your pocket.
21:36 And the one thing I will say is, is Michigan State has one of the most exciting players in the tournament.
21:41 I just want to say because March mints a lot of heroes and mints, you know, the guys that hit the shot that's remembered forever.
21:49 And when I think about guys that could go off for 40 points in the tournament, Tyson Walker for Michigan State is is maybe the most exciting guy.
21:56 Point guard. He's a little bit of a volume shooter, but we kind of like that this time of year.
22:01 The guy that'll have the irrational confidence to pull up and hit tough shots. So they'll be a fun team to watch.
22:08 Now, whether you decide to put that money on or not, that's entirely up to you.
22:12 Yeah, no, man. This is going to be a fun two weeks to watch, man. I look forward to doing this again, Matt.
22:16 Thank you, man. My Forbes colleague, college basketball aficionado, sports betting aficionado to man.
22:22 Appreciate the time, brother. All good. I love talking to you and I love talking to you.
22:27 Appreciate it, Matt. Thanks for watching.
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