The election news is coming in at light speed, so we are here to break it down for you. Welcome to WatchMojo, and today we’re addressing twenty key questions that will determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
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00:00 They are the oldest people ever to run for president, breaking by only four years the
00:06 record that they set.
00:09 Welcome to WatchMojo, and today we're addressing 20 key questions that will determine the outcome
00:14 of the 2024 presidential election.
00:16 The news is coming in at light speed, so we are here to break it down for you.
00:20 Who wants an open border?
00:22 Who wants high interest rates?
00:23 Who wants all electric vehicles?
00:26 And they're fine, but you want to have choice.
00:29 Will there be a presidential debate?
00:31 Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump have signaled a desire to avoid a presidential debate.
00:46 Trump skipped the Republican primary debates altogether.
00:49 In 2022, Trump forced the Republican Party to withdraw from the Commission on Presidential
00:53 Debates.
00:54 If a debate took place, would Joe Biden be a gaffe machine or could he use the forum
00:59 to quash any worries about his sharpness?
01:01 Would Donald Trump's usual bombast win the day, or has the shtick gotten stale?
01:06 The two men appear to be playing a game of chicken, waiting for the other to pull out
01:10 and accept the blame.
01:21 Can Biden overcome his poll numbers?
01:25 Joe Biden's poll numbers started out strong, but particularly since the hasty troop pullout
01:29 from Afghanistan, his numbers have taken a beating.
01:32 A lot of people are down on Joe Biden's leadership.
01:35 They're worried about his ability to finish out his term strong.
01:37 They're worried about things around the economy where Democrats are less trusted than Republicans.
01:42 The withdrawal from Afghanistan, despite public support and despite having been initiated
01:46 by Trump, took a toll.
01:49 Since then, the public's approval of Biden's handling of everything from the border to
01:52 the economy has been lower than Trump's.
01:54 He's taken drubbings in the media and good polling news has been few and far between
01:59 since the midterms.
02:00 Yeah, I mean, from the president's standpoint, certainly it's concerning to be behind Donald
02:04 Trump at all, certainly by five points.
02:06 That's the largest lead Trump's ever had over Biden in our polling.
02:09 Still, despite those numbers, Democrats have been racking up wins up and down the ballot.
02:15 Will Biden's poll numbers improve?
02:17 If they don't, will it matter?
02:19 Can the GOP and Trump catch up on fundraising?
02:23 At the end of 2023, the RNC was running low on funds and some big money donors who were
02:28 dissatisfied with Trump spent millions in the GOP primary.
02:32 And then in the fourth quarter, you can see what happened.
02:34 Trump dropped off, Biden took off.
02:36 And so in total, Biden has substantially outraged Trump in this cycle.
02:42 Republican candidates down ballot are going to need financial support.
02:45 Then there are Trump's legal costs.
02:47 As of this video, the former president is trying to install a diehard supporter at the
02:51 top of the RNC and the organization's number two would be Trump's daughter in law.
02:55 Prognosticators fear that donations will be directed to Trump's legal defense and judgments.
03:00 He's also spending a lot on his legal fees from his fundraising.
03:05 Last year, he took fifty five million dollars of money that his donors gave him and used
03:09 it on his legal fees may well have been all of his legal costs for what we know.
03:13 Meanwhile, Biden is outraising Trump personally and down ballot Democrats are doing well.
03:19 Will it make a difference?
03:21 What is the status of swing states?
03:24 Thanks to the Electoral College, seven states, really as few as three, will determine the
03:29 fate of the election.
03:30 Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the former blue wall states, are everything.
03:35 Fewer states being classified by experts as being true toss ups.
03:39 In fact, 2024 may have the fewest toss up states in recent political history.
03:45 The margin in those states has been less than 100000 people in each of the last two presidential
03:49 elections.
03:50 Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina also have a part to play.
03:54 Will Biden's accomplishments help him with unions in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada?
03:59 Or will Trump's cultural appeal to working class voters win the day as in 2016?
04:04 Even if he gets those three where he's made the biggest improvement, he still will need
04:08 to win at least one of those Midwest states, Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin.
04:13 The Democrats have been banking on reverse coattails saving Biden.
04:17 Local races and down ballot candidates who are very popular could bring enough voters
04:21 out to make the difference.
04:23 Can Biden overcome his deficit with African-American voters?
04:27 Former Vice President Joe Biden was floundering after the first two Democratic primaries in
04:32 2020.
04:33 It was African-American voters in South Carolina who gave Biden the momentum he needed to win
04:37 the primary and the White House.
04:39 I wouldn't be here without the Democratic voters of South Carolina.
04:42 That's a fact.
04:43 The president and vice president have made multiple trips to the state to target black
04:47 voters, but support may be softening.
04:50 As with many Democratic constituencies, enthusiasm for Biden has dropped precipitously among
04:56 these voters in the last four years.
04:58 Economic concerns and dissatisfaction with Gaza in particular have soured some younger
05:02 black voters on the president.
05:04 How concerned are you that people will sit this election out?
05:07 I'm very concerned about it.
05:09 I am concerned that so many of our community, and I understand, feeling that some of the
05:15 issues that are more relevant to us are not being addressed.
05:18 At the same time, the lingering threat of white supremacist power has many African-Americans
05:23 afraid of a second Trump term.
05:25 Can Biden regain their confidence?
05:27 Will their fear of Trump be enough to juice turnout?
05:31 Will Trump be kept off the ballot?
05:33 A number of legal pundits, including renowned conservative judge J. Michael Ludig, have
05:38 been banging on one particular drum for over a year.
05:42 According to their theory, Section 3 of the 14th Amendment prevents insurrectionist officials
05:47 from regaining office.
05:48 The big question will be whether or not it holds, because this is surely going to the
05:52 U.S. Supreme Court.
05:54 And I have a lot less confidence that the U.S. Supreme Court will will decide that Donald
05:59 Trump should be disqualified from the ballot, given that conservative majority on that court.
06:04 They've filed legal briefs in multiple states to pull Donald Trump from the ballot.
06:08 As of this video, several states, including Maine and Colorado, have taken this theory
06:12 and run with it.
06:13 The Supreme Court has heard arguments challenging Colorado's ruling.
06:17 Legal experts believe this challenge is DOA in the conservative Supreme Court.
06:21 The kind of burden of proof was really on the Colorado side.
06:26 And I think I agree with the general consensus that by the end of the very intense two hours,
06:33 Colorado just hadn't met that burden.
06:35 Still, if there is a SCOTUS surprise, how many states will it affect?
06:40 Will red states create an excuse to drop Biden in response?
06:43 And will any of it matter?
06:45 Will the GOP caucus turn off voters?
06:48 Some Democratic operatives believe they've found the secret sauce for 2024 electoral
06:53 victory.
06:54 Run on Republicans being weirdos.
06:57 This Republican-controlled 118th Congress is one of the least productive in history.
07:02 On Capitol Hill, Democrats and Republicans don't often see eye to eye on the issues.
07:07 But there is one thing both parties seem to agree on.
07:10 This is the most ineffective Congress that we have seen.
07:13 Shame on us, both parties.
07:15 We've sold the American public out on everything.
07:18 They've burned through multiple speakers of the House, are pushing messaging that only
07:22 appeals to their far-right base, and are engaged in vicious infighting.
07:26 They support unpopular abortion bans, kill conservative bills to address the border,
07:31 and refuse to aid Ukraine.
07:33 In February, the New York 3rd Congressional District special election to replace George
07:37 Santos may be a bellwether.
07:39 Democrat Tom Suozzi heading back to Congress after winning New York's special election.
07:44 He defeated Republican candidate Mazi Pillup.
07:47 53% to 46% wasn't even close.
07:51 Suozzi will replace ousted Congressman George Santos in New York's 3rd District.
07:55 It flips nearly 16 points in less than two years.
07:58 Interest voters and independents may be sick of the GOP shtick.
08:02 Roadblocks are less popular than governing.
08:05 Can Trump win without an actual vision for governing?
08:08 Do institutions of democracy hold again?
08:13 After the 2020 election, Donald Trump tried everything he could to maintain his grip on
08:17 power.
08:18 So if the Electoral College does elect President-elect Joe Biden, are you not going to leave this
08:24 building?
08:25 Just so you...
08:26 Certainly I will.
08:27 And you know that.
08:29 He filed lawsuits and pressured local election officials to change vote tallies.
08:34 But state and federal courts rejected spurious claims.
08:37 Up and down state and local bureaucracies, institutions held.
08:41 But the threat didn't end there.
08:43 He accused poll workers like Ruby Freeman of committing fraud without any evidence.
08:48 Threats have flooded election offices around the country, and local governments have been
08:52 quietly sounding the alarm as they have hemorrhaged workers.
08:56 People have been too scared for their personal safety.
08:58 I used to be very proud of my position and telling people what I did for a living.
09:05 And I don't do that anymore because you never know what reaction you're going to receive
09:11 from the people on the other end.
09:14 Election deniers have made a concerted effort to fill those positions themselves.
09:18 Will institutions hold again in 2024?
09:21 Will third-party candidates spoil the race?
09:24 Whether correct or not, many political observers credited third-party candidate Ross Perot
09:29 with spoiling the election in 1992.
09:32 The same has been said of Ralph Nader in 2000 and Jill Stein in 2016.
09:36 Between a potential no-labels centrist candidate and RFK Jr., third-party candidates could
09:42 affect the 2024 election.
09:44 Why do one in five Americans say that they're interested in your candidacy?
09:51 I think they, those are the people who've heard me speak.
09:56 At least conservatives who support Trump think so.
09:59 Both no-labels and RFK Jr. have been funded by major Trump and GOP donors.
10:04 However, Joe Manchin, West Virginia senator and potential no-labels candidate, has announced
10:09 that he will not run.
10:10 What changed?
10:11 Why aren't you launching that bid?
10:13 Well, I guess I'd be there, but I mean, just get good people involved.
10:17 RFK, who has expressed interest in the Libertarian Party, is likely not going to get their endorsement.
10:23 The possibility of any major third-party challenger making the ballot is up in the air.
10:28 Will the end of Roe continue to help Democrats?
10:32 President Biden and Vice President Harris kicked off their 2024 campaign with a pro-abortion
10:36 rights rally on the anniversary of Roe v. Wade.
10:40 Let there be no mistake.
10:41 The person most responsible for taking away this freedom of the American is Donald Trump.
10:46 The Democrats are counting on abortion rights to help put them over the top.
10:50 It may not be a bad bet.
10:52 Everywhere abortion is on the ballot, even in deep red states like Kentucky and Kansas,
10:56 the issue is a winner.
10:58 Abortion propelled Democrats to victories in special elections all over the country.
11:02 It also helped prevent a red wave for Republicans in the 2022 midterms.
11:07 The GOP keeps pushing an unpopular anti-abortion agenda, promoting a national ban, and huge
11:13 swaths of the country are becoming virtual OB/GYN deserts as doctors fear the legal consequences
11:20 of providing health care.
11:21 This is an issue that's vexing Republicans as they look at the map next year, but it's
11:25 vexing those on the debate stage.
11:27 How are they going to handle this tough political moment for the GOP?
11:31 Will anti-Trump Republicans endorse Biden?
11:34 The 2020 presidential election was historic in a number of ways.
11:38 One surprising bit of history, the roughly 100 Republican officials and former officials
11:42 who endorsed Joe Biden.
11:44 "I went for Biden because I've known him a long time and I think he can bring everybody
11:48 together."
11:49 They saw Trump as an existential threat and chose to put country over party.
11:54 The 2022 midterms saw something similar.
11:57 Congresswoman Liz Cheney, the face of the anti-Trump Republican movement, endorsed a
12:01 handful of national security Democrats for Congress.
12:04 It was the first time she had ever done so, believing that the current iteration of the
12:08 Republican Party is too irresponsible to be trusted with power.
12:12 Will she and the other Republicans endorse Biden?
12:15 Will Nikki Haley and Chris Christie join those ranks?
12:17 "I'm not voting for Donald Trump under any circumstances.
12:21 Now who I might vote for, I'll wait to see the complete field before I make my judgment."
12:26 "Do you rule out voting for President Biden?"
12:28 "I can't see myself voting for President Biden either."
12:30 "But you don't rule it out?"
12:31 Would those endorsements make a difference with swing state, moderate voters?
12:36 What role will inflation play?
12:38 The COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on the world's economies.
12:42 Inflation spread like wildfire, but the U.S. had one of the strongest post-COVID economic
12:46 recoveries on the planet.
12:48 The rate of inflation has gone down more effectively than any other developed nation.
12:52 The Labor Department's latest look at the U.S. economy raises new questions about just
12:57 how fast inflation is easing.
13:00 Consumer prices in January were up 3.1 percent from a year ago, smaller than the annual increase
13:06 in December.
13:07 Despite Federal Reserve raising interest rates to cool the economy, job numbers are consistently
13:12 good and fears of a recession have receded.
13:15 Still, bizarrely, Joe Biden gets virtually no credit, and polls show that voters trust
13:21 Trump more on the economy.
13:23 I think that for most voters, you continue to see that the economy is a lagging number
13:27 for Joe Biden.
13:29 But I do think that, probably unlike a lot of Republicans, I think it could benefit him
13:33 over the course of the next 10 months, because for the first time in three years, real wages
13:37 are actually outpacing inflation.
13:40 Will that trend continue?
13:42 One potential clue is consumer sentiment.
13:45 Early 2024 data show that consumers are finally starting to feel better about the economy.
13:50 Will this help Biden turn his numbers around?
13:54 How important is Gaza as an election issue?
13:57 Some voters, particularly left-wing and Muslim Americans, are furious with Joe Biden over
14:02 the issue of Gaza.
14:03 Wherever Biden goes, protests follow, shouting "Genocide Joe!"
14:08 It's all the fallout from a top-dollar presidential fundraiser, coming as Palestinian supporters
14:13 push for a ceasefire in Gaza, blaming the war on U.S. support for Israel, and as they
14:18 call the president, "Genocide Joe."
14:21 Young voters especially are impassioned.
14:23 Benjamin Netanyahu is in a political quagmire and is incentivized to keep the war in Gaza
14:28 going as long as possible.
14:29 He is deeply unpopular in Israel, but remains ensconced in power as long as the war continues.
14:36 Biden has disparaged Netanyahu in private, but has done little publicly to distance the
14:40 U.S. from Israel's actions or seemingly exert much influence.
14:45 President Biden and Jordan's King Abdullah did not mince words, warning Israel not to
14:49 launch a major offensive in the most densely populated part of southern Gaza.
14:54 And now they're packed into Rafa, exposed and vulnerable.
14:58 They need to be protected.
15:00 How this plays, particularly in Michigan and Minnesota, which each have large Muslim populations,
15:06 could make a swing state difference.
15:09 Will the GOP help Ukraine?
15:11 Though the Senate passed a bipartisan foreign aid bill, it appears as of mid-February to
15:16 be DOA in the House.
15:18 Supporting this bill is standing up to Putin.
15:22 Opposing it is playing into Putin's hands.
15:24 Without that support aid, it seems very possible that Ukrainian freedom will eventually be
15:28 in big trouble.
15:30 Ukrainian fighters are literally running out of ammunition.
15:33 If Ukraine falls to Russia, NATO countries could be next to be attacked.
15:38 In an interview with Tucker Carlson, Putin denied any interest in pushing further west.
15:42 Still, to those who understand history, the way he spoke about Poland subtly signaled
15:47 a desire to invade.
15:49 Trump consistently mischaracterizes the NATO alliance, often describing it like a "mafia
15:54 protection racket."
15:55 The NATO countries have to pay up.
15:56 They're not paying up.
15:57 They're not paying what they should, and they laugh at the stupidity of the United States
15:58 of America, where we have a guy that gives $60 billion every time somebody comes and
15:59 asks for it.
16:00 During a campaign stop, Trump said that he would encourage Putin to invade any NATO country
16:14 that, quote, "doesn't pay."
16:17 Still voters care.
16:19 Will there be a wider war in the Middle East?
16:22 Ever since the October 7th Hamas attacks, the region has been balanced on the edge of
16:26 a knife.
16:27 The war in Gaza is still raging, with thousands of innocent Gazans, many of them children,
16:32 paying the price.
16:33 Meanwhile, Iranian proxies are ramping up both rhetoric and attacks.
16:37 New strikes on Iranian-backed militants far from Israel's borders, stoking fears that
16:43 the United States is on the brink of a wider war in the Middle East.
16:47 The Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon are champing at the bit for a larger regional
16:52 war.
16:53 The Houthis have attacked shipping lanes to disrupt international commerce.
16:56 The U.S. has retaliated with bombing runs.
16:59 Iranian proxies in Iraq killed several U.S. soldiers and wounded dozens of others, prompting
17:04 more retaliation.
17:05 Every single one of these attacks is a signal from Iran and its proxies that they are not
17:10 only watching what the U.S. is doing, but it's also a signal that they are prepared
17:14 to act against the U.S. should they feel the need to do so.
17:18 Still, Biden and Iran are both signaling de-escalation.
17:21 Can cooler heads prevail, or will the war continue, pulling in the rest of the world?
17:27 Can Biden convince his critics to embrace his successes?
17:31 That was yesterday.
17:32 What can you do for me today?
17:34 It's a perennial problem in American politics that all presidents endure.
17:38 Most presidents, though, have a shorter list of accomplishments than Joe Biden.
17:42 If he loses this fall and ushers Donald Trump back into the presidency, that will definitely
17:47 affect historians' view of his presidency.
17:49 But in any case, what it says is that they are respecting him for having ousted Trump
17:54 in the first place and trying to restore the presidency and the country.
17:58 The American Rescue Plan helps stabilize the economy.
18:01 The Chips and Science Act has helped high-tech manufacturing in the U.S.
18:05 And America is in the middle of an expansion of manufacturing after decades of industry
18:10 layoffs and closures.
18:11 The Inflation Reduction Act is the biggest climate bill in American history.
18:16 America is in a green energy boom.
18:18 Talking about accomplishments, this White House says that it has made in its two and
18:21 a half years in office that are responsive to the needs of the public and also, at the
18:28 same time, targeting those election messages by doing it.
18:33 Sweden and Finland joined NATO, and Ukraine is, as of now, still fighting hard.
18:38 In many respects, Biden has been ranked a very successful president.
18:42 But can he sell that message to voters?
18:45 Will the definition of democracy itself be an issue?
18:49 In 2020 and 2022, the pundit class slammed Joe Biden for focusing on democracy as an
18:55 election issue.
18:56 They're going after your right to vote.
18:59 President Biden took his message that democracy is on the ballot to New Mexico and California.
19:05 He ignored naysayers and voters proved its huge relevance.
19:09 Unfortunately, democracy is as salient an issue in 2024 as it was in the midterms.
19:15 MAGA supporters have unveiled Project 2025, a plan to replace career civil servants with
19:21 right-wing ideologues in a Trump presidency.
19:24 So here we have, you know, dozens of groups, hundreds of people, millions of dollars to
19:30 put together a schematic plan for Trump to come in.
19:33 And at the heart of it is getting rid of 10,000, 50,000, 100,000 or more federal workers.
19:40 Ostensibly independent judges with lifetime tenure on the Supreme Court keep taking more
19:45 and more prominence during an era of deadlocked partisanship.
19:48 Pro-democratic voices keep sounding the alarm that democracy itself is on the line in 2024.
19:54 Will voters believe them?
19:56 Even if they do, will it matter to voters as much as the border and kitchen table economic
20:00 issues?
20:02 Will Biden or Trump's age be a determining factor?
20:05 Voters left, right and center are concerned about Joe Biden's age.
20:09 There's a strong feeling in the country, it's bipartisan, that when he takes office in '82,
20:15 he's too old to serve a four-year term.
20:17 His public appearances tend to involve shorter speeches than they used to.
20:21 His arthritic spine causes him to walk in a stilted manner, making him look older.
20:26 Though people who have dealt with him, including ex-Speaker McCarthy, confirm he is still sharp,
20:31 the concerns remain.
20:33 Trump too is less coherent in public speeches than he used to be.
20:37 Republicans pound Biden's age while ignoring the same liability in Trump.
20:40 The Democrats have not done much to assuage concerns and are even sometimes dismissive.
20:46 The Biden I see, the Biden I know can run laps around Donald Trump.
20:52 The question is, how do you get that Biden out so other Americans can see him instead
20:57 of a gaffe at an angry six-minute press conference?
21:01 Still, poll after poll cites Biden's age as a significant concern.
21:05 If the Biden camp can't find a way to message his fitness, his campaign could be at risk.
21:11 Who gets the blame for the border crisis?
21:14 Democrats have long de-emphasized the southern border as a political issue, while Republicans
21:18 have historically overemphasized its importance.
21:21 We begin tonight with an emergency, a crisis, a catastrophe.
21:25 At least that's what Republican lawmakers have spent the last few months calling the
21:29 situation at the southern border.
21:32 One thing is absolutely clear.
21:35 America is at a breaking point with record levels of illegal immigration.
21:39 But these days it's an issue that cannot be ignored.
21:42 Southern governors like George Abbott in Texas have pushed the issue to the point of a constitutional
21:47 crisis.
21:48 Polls have shown that voters trust Trump on the border more than Biden.
21:51 But the special election on Long Island to replace George Santos painted a dire picture
21:56 for the GOP, as voters were furious at Trump and the House Republicans for killing a conservative
22:01 border bill.
22:02 So he's going to kill the bill because he doesn't want James Lankford, a conservative
22:08 Republican, to work with Democrats on a problem that he says is the worst problem in America.
22:16 If Democrats can pin the problems at the border on Trump and the GOP, that could win by a
22:21 margin.
22:22 But the GOP is not going to be the only party to be killed.
22:23 It's going to be a big one.
22:24 And it's going to be a big one.
22:25 It's going to be a big one.
22:26 It's going to be a big one.
22:27 It's going to be a big one.
22:28 It's going to be a big one.
22:29 It's going to be a big one.
22:30 It's going to be a big one.
22:31 It's going to be a big one.
22:32 It's going to be a big one.
22:33 It's going to be a big one.
22:34 It's going to be a big one.
22:35 It's going to be a big one.
22:36 It's going to be a big one.
22:37 It's going to be a big one.
22:38 It's going to be a big one.
22:39 It's going to be a big one.
22:40 It's going to be a big one.
23:08 Trump's legal strategy has been focused on delaying as many of his trials as possible
23:12 until after the election.
23:13 His fears are well-founded.
23:15 The polls that show him beating Joe Biden flip if he were to be convicted of a crime.
23:20 Timing is really at the heart of this controversy because Trump wants to delay, delay, delay,
23:26 try to push this case back until after the November election.
23:30 But Jack Smith, he wants to bring this prior to the election.
23:33 He's thrown a legal Hail Mary, pushing a dubious legal theory that as president he was immune
23:39 from criminal prosecution.
23:41 Will the Supreme Court allow him to delay his cases or will they punt?
23:45 Can he delay his trials until after the election?
23:48 If not, will a conviction tank his candidacy?
23:52 Are there any news junkies out there who think we left a major question off our list?
23:56 Let us know in the comments below.
23:58 In terms of a second term, there's a lot of work to continue to do to build on our
24:03 successes.
24:04 Did you enjoy this video?
24:06 Check out these other clips from WatchMojo, and be sure to subscribe and ring the bell
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