Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, joins TheStreet to discuss where he thinks gas prices are headed in 2024.
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00:00 Gas prices are once again climbing.
00:03 Talk to me about some of the factors behind the recent rise.
00:05 What are we seeing?
00:06 - Well, a lot of this is really kind of segwaying into the seasonal rise that we tend to see,
00:11 but we can't look forward without looking backward.
00:14 Refinery issues have really happened over the last month and a half.
00:17 Part of it really started in mid-January with sub-zero temperatures all the way down into
00:21 areas of Texas and Louisiana, impacting refineries, shutting some of them down.
00:27 Also an electrical outage at one of the largest refineries in the country in northwest Indiana
00:31 has caused Great Lakes prices to surge.
00:33 But now we're coming into the time of year where refinery maintenance begins.
00:37 That limits refineries' ability to produce as much gasoline as we're starting to transition
00:42 from winter to summer gasoline.
00:44 And as temperatures are gradually warming up, Americans are driving more.
00:48 Those three reasons typically push gas prices up starting in mid-February, and that could
00:53 last through April or May.
00:54 - Do you have an overall outlook or a long-term forecast on gas prices, let's say, for the
01:00 whole year, for 2024, keeping in mind the price points and pressure points that we had
01:05 coming into this year and knowing some of the elements of seasonality that you've already
01:09 talked about?
01:10 - Yeah, we do.
01:12 In our 2024 fuel outlook, we anticipated the yearly national average would be slightly
01:17 lower in 2024.
01:19 We estimate a yearly national average of $3.38 a gallon.
01:24 That compares to the $3.51 a gallon tally we saw last year for the yearly national average.
01:29 So a subtle improvement that coming as we continue to put things like COVID and Russia's
01:34 war in Ukraine into the rear view.
01:36 And with higher interest rates, that should keep growth contained, limiting the potential
01:41 upside.
01:41 -