Sinyal kenaikan harga BBM di SPBU Pertamina seluruh Indonesia bakal terjadi selepas pelaksanaaan pesta demokrasi Pemilu 2024.
Hal itu diungkapkan oleh Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM).
Direktur Jenderal Migas Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) Tutuka Ariadji menjelaskan, kenaikan harga BBM nonsubsidi itu didorong lantaran harga minyak dunia yang juga cenderung naik. Selain itu, karena adanya konflik Timur Tengah yang masih memanas membuat distribusi logistik terhambat.
Kemudian, terkait kenaikan pajak atas penggunaan bahan bakar kendaraan bermotor (PBBKB) menjadi 10 persen, menurut Tutuka, adalah menjadi keluhan oleh pengusaha SPBU karena dinilai sangat memberatkan. Ditambah lagi penetapan kenaikan pajak itu dilakukan tanpa adanya sosialisasi.
Seperti diketahui kenaikan PBBKB Pemerintah Provinsi DKI jakarta tertuang dalam Peraturan Daerah (Perda) Provinsi DKI Jakarta Nomor 1 Tahun 2024. Berisi tentang Pajak Daerah dan Retribusi Daerah yang diteken oleh Pejabat Gubernur DKI Jakarta, Heru Budi Hartono, pada 5 Januari 2024.
Hal itu diungkapkan oleh Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM).
Direktur Jenderal Migas Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) Tutuka Ariadji menjelaskan, kenaikan harga BBM nonsubsidi itu didorong lantaran harga minyak dunia yang juga cenderung naik. Selain itu, karena adanya konflik Timur Tengah yang masih memanas membuat distribusi logistik terhambat.
Kemudian, terkait kenaikan pajak atas penggunaan bahan bakar kendaraan bermotor (PBBKB) menjadi 10 persen, menurut Tutuka, adalah menjadi keluhan oleh pengusaha SPBU karena dinilai sangat memberatkan. Ditambah lagi penetapan kenaikan pajak itu dilakukan tanpa adanya sosialisasi.
Seperti diketahui kenaikan PBBKB Pemerintah Provinsi DKI jakarta tertuang dalam Peraturan Daerah (Perda) Provinsi DKI Jakarta Nomor 1 Tahun 2024. Berisi tentang Pajak Daerah dan Retribusi Daerah yang diteken oleh Pejabat Gubernur DKI Jakarta, Heru Budi Hartono, pada 5 Januari 2024.
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04:55 Okay, so it's a global factor.
04:57 Then geopolitics that makes oil prices rise again.
05:00 And this is also the basis of the government giving signals.
05:03 The non-subsidized oil prices will rise in all parts of Indonesia after the election.
05:08 What do you think? Is the momentum correct?
05:12 If we talk about non-subsidized oil prices,
05:19 I think the price of the economy is like in January.
05:28 In January 2023, the conditions were almost the same.
05:32 And then there will be an increase.
05:35 But if we look at the seasonal period,
05:43 or the seasonal effect, it's relatively the same.
05:46 So it will be estimated to rise around 85 or 87 USD per barrel.
05:55 If we look at the current conditions,
06:02 the escalation may be around 10 to 20%.
06:06 So the price of non-subsidized oil will increase.
06:10 Especially for retail, the price can rise around 10 to 15%.
06:16 If we look at the non-subsidized oil,
06:20 I think with the current financial situation,
06:25 it's a bit difficult.
06:27 We see that there is a burden on the state,
06:33 especially for the state-owned enterprises, for example, for the retail sector, etc.
06:35 So here, it may have to be rethought,
06:39 and then also start assuming that the assumption for the state-owned enterprises' subsidies
06:47 must be changed when the state-owned enterprises' subsidies are issued in August or September.
06:53 Okay, the increase of 10 to 20%, as you said,
06:57 in the current conditions, the increase in food prices, etc.
07:00 as it has been hot for some time,
07:03 will it be possible to add more burden to the community?
07:07 Or what?
07:08 Because we have to increase the price of non-subsidized oil,
07:10 because we have become net importers, we have to adjust the price.
07:14 Yes, if we talk about the economy,
07:19 here, the biggest impact is from the global.
07:28 And we see here that some industries have started to collapse.
07:32 For example, in Bandung, some textile companies have started to lay off.
07:37 And they are in the Majalaya area, etc.
07:40 They can no longer produce.
07:43 And then they also enter the export market,
07:46 it's also very heavy, hit by the impact of imported goods, etc.
07:51 So the domestic market is also a little bit overwhelmed by global purchasing power,
07:59 so it reduces the export a little bit, especially for the labor-intensive industries.
08:06 And if we look at the rice price at the moment,
08:12 then the price of BBM will increase,
08:16 but the conditions in the Middle East
08:20 are indeed increasing the transportation costs which are extraordinarily high.
08:26 So maybe this is, in my opinion, the government policy
08:32 to think that, hopefully,
08:37 I think the BBM subsidy has already,
08:42 because there is a social fund here now, and the nature is the same,
08:45 I think it has already been included.
08:47 But maybe from the extension side,
08:50 if now is the time, until June,
08:54 but if we look at the SUSENAS survey,
08:59 which is usually used by the government to identify poverty
09:04 and also to measure inflation in March and September,
09:08 I think maybe later in the macro indicator,
09:11 inflation is not so significantly affected,
09:15 because the government has already suspended the SUSENAS,
09:18 and then later the possibility that imported goods will enter
09:23 to stabilize the supply deficit that we have.
09:29 But maybe what I was worried about earlier,
09:34 the possibility of the burden of the country's finances is getting bigger,
09:38 especially for this year.
09:39 Okay, is it because of the increase in the price,
09:41 the BBM is a non-subsidy type, compared to the subsidy,
09:45 so it won't have too much impact on inflation,
09:48 as you said on the side,
09:49 there are indeed several social assistance programs
09:52 that have been carried out by the government, Mr. Yayan?
09:56 If we look at the purchasing power of the people,
09:59 especially the non-subsidy,
10:04 I think, as I explained earlier,
10:07 there may be a decrease of 2% or up to 5%,
10:11 but if we look at the prospects of economic recovery,
10:18 it is well maintained by providing good macro-prudential
10:23 from the indicator side,
10:24 especially macro indicators,
10:27 we don't know what the economic growth prediction of Indonesia will be in October,
10:34 but if we look at the figure from IMF,
10:38 our condition is at 4.9% to 5%.
10:45 If the government is usually above the IMF,
10:50 because we want to maintain investor credibility,
10:53 that our economy is getting more solid,
10:57 but maybe investors also want to ask about the transition,
11:01 the concept of macro economic development and fiscal policy,
11:07 who will be the finance minister,
11:11 and who will be the economic manager,
11:14 because it will see how the political economy
11:19 will affect the macro economic policy.
11:22 Meanwhile, if we look at it now,
11:25 maybe it's okay from the consumer side,
11:29 there will be changes,
11:32 because the purchasing power has decreased,
11:36 then the price is also ensured,
11:38 if it is still forced,
11:40 especially the non-subsidy,
11:42 I think it will definitely increase the price,
11:45 and it will definitely add pressure,
11:47 especially for the public purchasing power,
11:50 because other consumers also have higher prices.
11:52 Okay, so what is the ideal number
11:55 if we talk about the increase in the price of non-subsidy?
11:58 But hold on, we will pause for a while.
12:01 And viewers, we will be back soon after the next break.
12:05 [Music]
12:22 Thank you for joining us in Market Review.
12:25 And the following segment we will provide you with the data
12:28 related to the non-subsidy BBM price movement.
12:31 We will be discussing together about Pertamax, then Pertamax Green,
12:34 Pertamax Turbo, Dex Light, and also Pertamina Dex.
12:37 The price is displayed on your television screen.
12:40 12,950 rupiah per liter for Pertamax,
12:44 then 13,900 rupiah per liter for Pertamax Green,
12:48 95, then 14,400 per liter for Pertamax Turbo,
12:52 as well as Dex Light and also Pertamina Dex.
12:56 Next, energy subsidy spending budget.
12:59 We see that in 2023, there is 164.29 trillion rupiah.
13:05 Meanwhile, for the energy subsidy spending budget in 2024,
13:09 there is an increase of about 15%,
13:12 to 189.1 trillion rupiah.
13:16 And the allocation of energy subsidy spending in 2024
13:21 consists of certain BBMs and LPGs,
13:24 which is 3 kilograms, 113.27 trillion rupiah,
13:29 and the electricity subsidy spending is 75.83 trillion rupiah.
13:34 Meanwhile, for the development of the world oil price,
13:38 the type of brand is recorded at 83.42 US dollars per barrel,
13:43 while West Texas Intermediate or WTI is 78.28 US dollars per barrel.
13:50 We will continue our discussion with Mr. Yayan Satyarty,
13:55 from the Department of Energy Economy, Pajajaran University.
13:58 Mr. Yayan, we will continue our discussion about the price movement.
14:03 How ideal is the number that you can reach
14:09 to increase the price of BBMs and LPGs with the conditions of the community?
14:13 We have discussed the increase in food prices,
14:17 but how can this decrease the purchasing power of the community?
14:21 If we look at the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East,
14:32 I think if we look at the trend,
14:36 based on the conditions last year,
14:39 it was around 85 to 87.
14:44 Or maybe it's close to 90.
14:47 For the moment, the highest increase is usually at the end of the hot season,
14:55 for example, from July to September.
14:59 We can see here that the number is very high,
15:03 and I think the probability of it reaching,
15:06 if left as it is, the condition or business as usual,
15:10 the oil price will continue to rise, maybe approaching around 100 dollars,
15:16 in the range of around 95 or 96,
15:19 until the period of July and August.
15:22 If we compare it to the conditions in Indonesia,
15:27 this is based on the OPEC price,
15:30 although the correlation between the brand price and the OPEC price is so high,
15:39 but if we look here, the OPEC price is usually lower than the brand or WTI price.
15:46 For Indonesia, we have lifting migas,
15:53 which we say we have better oil quality, the price can promise.
16:00 But the windfall profit received by Pertamina is usually to be kept as a cyclical counter
16:08 so that the price, especially the BBM, which is said to be for the middle income,
16:16 like Pertamak, is more stable.
16:19 If for the upper income group,
16:22 for example, Pertamina DEX, or Pertamak above 92 octane,
16:32 it will definitely be handed over to the market price,
16:36 because if it is done in a counter-cyclical policy,
16:42 I think it's not that good.
16:46 So, as we saw earlier, that the subsidy spike reached 15%,
16:53 I think the government has maintained that the counter-cyclical probability of the price to rise
16:59 is around 5-10%, as I explained earlier.
17:04 The remaining 5% is made possible, for example, because of the exchange rate change.
17:10 Where we see the exchange rate change at the moment,
17:13 if I look at the Indonesian Bank, it's already a bit of a mess.
17:18 We're at 15,000, 16,000, down,
17:21 it's a bit difficult to lower our exchange rate to be below 15,000.
17:27 So, the burden, especially the energy consumption of our APBN,
17:34 is heavy at the moment.
17:36 And if our APBN energy consumption is getting heavier,
17:40 it means that the possibility of government spending
17:43 can be difficult to, say, develop infrastructure,
17:52 or social needs, and so on.
17:55 Okay, as for the budget, as you said earlier,
17:57 the energy subsidy spending increased by 15%,
18:00 compared to last year.
18:02 What do you think?
18:04 Will this also reduce the direct impact on the community?
18:09 Or is it because the increase is already quite high,
18:11 the price of crude oil, so it won't have much impact?
18:17 If, for example, the recovery of the economy is good,
18:23 if the external factors or international trade is stable,
18:29 like in 2023,
18:32 but because of the tensions in Palestine and the Red Sea,
18:38 which is a lot of tax evasion, and so on,
18:43 and other things,
18:45 I think it won't make it worse,
18:48 especially international trade activities.
18:53 Because the increase is in transport costs.
18:56 If we look at the transport costs,
18:59 when it's expensive,
19:01 it means that our global supply chain is disturbed
19:05 and the escalation can increase so much.
19:08 If, for example, like before,
19:11 there is a disruption, especially for commodities based on exports,
19:20 so why is our growth, especially our exports,
19:25 through a decline and then an impact on the domestic industry.
19:29 So this is what causes imbalances between internal performance,
19:36 let's say domestic economic performance,
19:39 with external or international trade performance.
19:44 In the pandemic, we saw that the external performance was good,
19:50 while now the external pressure is higher than the pressure in the domestic.
19:57 So, the development of the domestic economy,
20:00 and the price of stabilization, especially in the domestic industry,
20:05 is a priority.
20:07 Because to hope that we will get a win-fail profit,
20:12 if it's in the US, it's different, I think.
20:14 We still have a relatively big advantage,
20:20 but we see that the advantage is only in the US,
20:24 not enjoyed by the industry that does export orientation.
20:30 So there will be a decline in export taxes,
20:35 and the possibility of the industry's income will also decrease.
20:39 Yes, Mr. Ian, what about the Pertamina step,
20:42 which in February decided to stop the increase in the price of Pertamax,
20:47 and friends, as you can see, non-subsidized BBMs,
20:50 while some other operators increased it
20:53 when sharing with the increase in the price of oil in the world.
20:56 Do you think it's part of the government's effort to maintain
21:00 the stability of consumer levels in the community?
21:04 Yes, I think if we talk about Pertamina,
21:10 it's the only company here that is given a mandate by the government
21:17 to implement basic laws,
21:21 namely regarding public goods, especially for the energy sector,
21:24 it has to be like that.
21:26 So it maintains the BUMN energy,
21:30 and then also from the results of the improvement of the BUMN energy,
21:36 we see that in the past few years,
21:38 Pertamina has experienced a increase in the price of oil,
21:41 and the oil is used for counter-cyclical,
21:44 for example, by holding the price, especially in Pertamax.
21:49 I think it's good to maintain price stabilization,
21:52 because if the BUMN gives an impact that is a multi-round effect,
21:58 so the multi-round effect is not only intersectoral,
22:01 but also affects the inter-cyclical dynamically.
22:06 For example, in the next month or two,
22:09 there will be some price-to-price commodity that will be affected
22:15 if there is no policy for the counter-cyclical
22:18 so that the price, especially energy, is stable.
22:23 Okay, so how do you see this year 2024
22:26 related to the development of the BUMN price, especially the non-subsidy?
22:30 Is the potential to rise again also open wide?
22:33 Remember, the rise in the price of crude oil in the world
22:35 is also still pushed by the escalation that is quite warm
22:40 in the Middle East, which was last reported
22:43 as the news has spread to a number of countries.
22:47 If we look at the seasonal effect in 2023,
22:53 then we look at the geopolitical risk that we have at the moment,
22:58 the probability of the price will be higher.
23:00 For example, in the months of April, it is already in the range of around 87,
23:06 the probability that we will be higher than that,
23:09 maybe in the range of around 90.
23:11 Why? Because the special forces, especially MIGAS,
23:16 then the transportation costs are getting more expensive,
23:18 it will disrupt the global supply chain, especially MIGAS,
23:23 and later it will be invested in others.
23:25 If the price of energy rises, then the price of other goods
23:29 or the global supply chain, for example,
23:31 the FOB will increase or the CFR will increase,
23:35 which will have an impact not only on the single economy,
23:41 but also the multilateral economy and the impact on the regional economy.
23:47 That's it, related to the latest update from the global energy sector
23:52 and also Indonesia, where the government has said
23:54 to give a signal to increase the non-subsidized BBM price.
23:58 As I have mentioned, and the potential, as you said,
24:01 there is still a wide open, often with geopolitical conditions or escalation in the world.
24:08 Mr. Yayan, thank you very much for the time you have delivered
24:12 and also the information you have given to the audience of IDX channel.
24:16 Congratulations on continuing your activities again.
24:18 Good health, Mr. Yayan, thank you.
24:20 Good health.
24:21 All right, audience, I have accompanied you for an hour in the market review.
24:26 I am Prasetyowi Bowo, with the work department of the UNUDIRI.
24:30 Thank you and see you soon.
24:32 Thank you.
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