• 11 months ago
- Global news flow & cues
- Stocks to watch, trade setup
- F&O strategies


Samina Nalwala, Niraj Shah and Tamanna Inamdar bring you all this and more as we head towards the 'India Market Open'. #NDTVProfitLive

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Transcript
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00:02:08 Hello, and welcome to India Market Open.
00:02:11 We are a full house this morning.
00:02:13 Neeraj is back from Switzerland.
00:02:14 Tamana is back to work as well, after working on a Monday
00:02:17 when the whole country was on holiday.
00:02:19 But good morning, guys.
00:02:20 It's a short week.
00:02:21 Markets are looking a little excited this morning.
00:02:23 Global Qs are looking good.
00:02:25 A bunch of earnings that have come through
00:02:26 aren't too bad either.
00:02:27 So there's a little bit of excitement in the air,
00:02:29 especially after a disappointing last week, which you missed.
00:02:32 Yeah, I know.
00:02:32 I know the banks took the markets lower.
00:02:35 But I must say--
00:02:36 I mean, HDFC bank.
00:02:37 HDFC bank.
00:02:38 Single-handedly.
00:02:39 Single-handedly.
00:02:39 Hopefully that gets corrected, and we'll talk about it.
00:02:42 But I must say, just before we get to the day's drill,
00:02:45 it's exciting to be out for seven days
00:02:48 when you don't feel you are out, simply because everybody
00:02:52 who is anybody in the world is talking about India.
00:02:55 And was in Davos, I believe.
00:02:59 So it felt like a mini Mumbai or Delhi.
00:03:02 In some sense.
00:03:02 So maybe the posters were a lot more the last time.
00:03:06 But I must say, the excitement around India--
00:03:08 more palpable, more real, more global than last time as well.
00:03:13 Last time was big.
00:03:14 This time, in some sense, understated, but bigger.
00:03:16 And of course, we'll talk about all of that for the day's
00:03:19 trade as well.
00:03:19 But just suffice to say, I didn't
00:03:21 feel that I was away from India.
00:03:22 I don't know whether that's a good thing or a bad thing.
00:03:25 Welcome back to not sub-zero degrees.
00:03:28 Great to have you back.
00:03:29 All right, what's been happening globally?
00:03:31 The cues are good, suffice to say.
00:03:34 You have very positive global cues overnight.
00:03:37 Wall Street is officially in a bull run.
00:03:41 There is no doubt about that.
00:03:42 The little hiccup that we saw in the beginning of Jan,
00:03:45 a sort of profit booking in Apple and other stocks
00:03:47 seems to have reversed.
00:03:49 You've had a superb close on Friday, another very good close
00:03:52 on Monday night as well.
00:03:55 The Dow and the S&P at new highs.
00:03:58 The Dow is close above 38,000 for the first time.
00:04:02 It's not as of all the uncertainty over rate cuts,
00:04:05 when, how, if, how much is over.
00:04:08 It's still very much there.
00:04:09 And you could really see that in the US 10-year, which
00:04:13 is firmly not just above the 4% mark, but has inched firmly up.
00:04:18 So there are two data sets that will be watched out for.
00:04:21 Q4 GDP will be out this Thursday in the US,
00:04:25 so it tells us how the economy is growing,
00:04:27 whether we're in that Goldilocks mode.
00:04:29 And you will have personal consumption expenditure data,
00:04:33 which is a key factor that the Fed looks at as well.
00:04:38 That's the story as far as US is concerned.
00:04:40 Europe was good as well.
00:04:42 Just a quick mention of what's happening with crude.
00:04:44 And it's getting jittery there.
00:04:46 If the whole Red Sea issue was not bad enough,
00:04:50 there has been a drone attack by Ukraine on a huge facility,
00:04:54 a huge Russian facility, which has a significant crude output.
00:04:58 So you have now two sort of fires flaring,
00:05:01 which can impact crude prices on the upside.
00:05:04 But on the downside, your supplies
00:05:06 have been so huge that you've seen just maybe about 2%
00:05:10 kind of increase overnight, which has tempered now
00:05:13 on the NYMEX, but Brent was up 2% overnight.
00:05:16 I'll just wrap up with Asia also looking very good.
00:05:20 And a BOJ outcome is expected today.
00:05:23 Bank of Japan is expected to give an outcome on interest rates,
00:05:27 is expected that they will remain in negative territory.
00:05:30 So you see the Nikkei also doing very well after a decent run.
00:05:34 So the stage is set for global markets looking positive.
00:05:39 Neeraj, is there a bit of uncertainty still here?
00:05:42 You could argue, because if you look at last week's skittish moves
00:05:45 across sectors, but for PSUs.
00:05:47 I mean, there was one basket which stood out,
00:05:49 and we'll talk about it a bit later on, on a later start as well maybe.
00:05:52 PSUs rallied in a very weak market
00:05:55 wherein all sectors were skittish.
00:05:57 Now, does ICICI Bank, Kotak Bank,
00:06:01 maybe some of the others like IDFC first,
00:06:03 bring a little bit of stability after the pain
00:06:06 of HDFC Bank last week? I think that's the key thing.
00:06:09 But what also happened last week by virtue of HDFC Bank
00:06:12 pulling the markets lower is that there was a bit of a long liquidation.
00:06:15 If you just look at the FII positioning on the Jans series
00:06:19 at the start of the series versus what is now evident,
00:06:23 it just makes the market a bit safer.
00:06:25 It's highly leveraged, it's highly high,
00:06:27 then it's a problem.
00:06:28 If there is a bit of a long liquidation that happens,
00:06:30 it just takes the bit of a froth out of the system.
00:06:33 Remember, the question around the froth was at the higher end
00:06:36 of the large caps per se because of the FII positioning
00:06:39 and not necessarily just the mid caps and the small caps
00:06:42 as was evident in November and December.
00:06:44 So therefore, this long liquidation at the larger end of the spectrum,
00:06:48 more so from the global end, just makes the market
00:06:50 a tad bit safer to my mind.
00:06:52 The only thing is it's a short trading week.
00:06:55 I really doubt it. There'll be too much of a positional trade set up
00:07:01 that will be taken by traders.
00:07:03 We had a holiday yesterday, the markets were open.
00:07:05 We'll have a holiday on 26th, the global markets will be open.
00:07:08 So therefore, at two ends, we've had a short week
00:07:11 but the global markets are on.
00:07:12 So very doubtful that there'll be too many definitive trends
00:07:15 that come into play.
00:07:17 And the other pieces, railways, we're talking about PSUs,
00:07:21 just the mammoth move that is happening in that bucket
00:07:25 for a Titagarh to get in money from capital at 400,
00:07:28 then get money from capital at 900 and then rally another 6%
00:07:32 to be nearly 30% higher from those levels.
00:07:35 Or rides, IRCON, IFRC, you name it, that stock is doing well,
00:07:40 just seems a bit expensive really to be honest,
00:07:43 no matter how strong the promising growth story is.
00:07:46 And I just take it back, it's been a wrong example maybe.
00:07:49 There's so much of hype around this Ayodhya, Lakshadweep stocks.
00:07:53 We saw what happened to one name, Pravek for example,
00:07:55 went up all the way 20%, 20% three days.
00:07:58 1250 people who got in there are now reeling at about 1050.
00:08:01 So from a trading position, people maybe need to be a bit careful in railways.
00:08:05 It just seems at the margin a bit frothy.
00:08:08 I know the Railway Minister was very--
00:08:09 No, no, I'm not talking about the Railway Minister.
00:08:11 I just wanted to comment on Ayodhya.
00:08:13 And as part of that coverage yesterday, we at NDTV Profit
00:08:16 covered it also very clearly from the business perspective.
00:08:20 And some of those numbers are astonishing.
00:08:23 So you might see some buildup there in the hospitality, tourism space.
00:08:28 The scale of what's coming is unbelievable.
00:08:30 Unbelievable, yeah.
00:08:31 Just the last point that in any investment,
00:08:34 the starting point is so important, right?
00:08:37 I mean, the story may be great, but if you get in it 90, 100 times,
00:08:41 and that's what's happening in railways currently, if you will--
00:08:43 I mean, IRFCs are 400% in six months.
00:08:46 But put this in perspective, Neeraj.
00:08:48 If you came into the market--
00:08:49 And this is what Ajay Srivastava made a point, right?
00:08:51 He said if you come into the market today
00:08:53 without knowledge of what happened yesterday or knowing anything,
00:08:56 you would still play these sectors.
00:08:57 And the fact that you would, you would go in with the same story
00:09:01 because the outlook looks good.
00:09:02 And talking about Ayodhya and those numbers,
00:09:04 anything that's slightly government-focused,
00:09:06 it's all about outlook, it's all about order wins.
00:09:08 It's not about execution or actual activity on the ground just yet, right?
00:09:12 Yeah, I hope people bake in the execution risk.
00:09:14 That's the only point.
00:09:15 I mean, with 80, 90, 100 times, whatever the number is,
00:09:18 you are saying that these guys will execute to the T.
00:09:21 It never happens.
00:09:22 But I agree with you on railway because the run-up is assuming
00:09:26 that there's going to be a 25% increase in the rail budget
00:09:30 announced in Bhotan account.
00:09:31 That's unlikely. That's unrealistic.
00:09:34 So what happens when that doesn't come through?
00:09:36 Just a quick mention, Gif-Nifty.
00:09:39 Let's take a check of how that's looking this morning.
00:09:41 We've talked about how we are expecting a positive start,
00:09:44 a really good start this morning, 165 points higher,
00:09:47 21,784 is what we should be expected to take off trade on.
00:09:52 A quick word on China, those markets for a change are up 3.5% this morning.
00:09:57 So there is a big bailout coming there.
00:09:59 Looking really good for China and Hong Kong.
00:10:01 Those are the outliers across Asia.
00:10:03 They work for metals, Samina?
00:10:05 And they work for metals and on the flip, gold is trading weak.
00:10:08 So there is some sort of risk on trade that's back in the market this morning.
00:10:12 I'm going to quickly go back to Bank Nifty
00:10:14 and then take a check of all the other stocks.
00:10:16 Neeraj, you talked about Bank Nifty and you talked about
00:10:19 how we will have some sort of a leg up after the big carnage we saw from HDFC Bank.
00:10:24 While ICAC Bank, ADR was up sharply in trade, up 2.5% on New York Stock Exchange.
00:10:30 That of course will be a trigger for IBank this morning.
00:10:33 Along with that, we will also have Kotak reacting.
00:10:36 So your FIs and institutional participation on Saturday was very, very low.
00:10:40 So there may be a little bit of a catch-up rally that could play out,
00:10:43 not just on ICAC Bank but on Kotak as well.
00:10:46 Good set of numbers there.
00:10:48 So Kotak, ICAC Bank from the large cap space will see FIs and institutions
00:10:52 coming in and participating.
00:10:54 That reaction, despite our markets being open on Saturday,
00:10:57 didn't have anything from those quarters.
00:10:59 Karur Vaisya Bank and J&K, again strong earnings.
00:11:02 So moving on to the large cap space, the broader market mid-cap banking names
00:11:07 will also see some sort of buying.
00:11:09 A good chance that we will attempt a 6-700 point up move on Bank Nifty today.
00:11:14 That is what you want to keep in mind.
00:11:16 Fin Nifty expiry today, so that's the other trigger that Bank Nifty will be watching out for.
00:11:21 Neeraj, I don't know if you tracked this clue.
00:11:23 And of course, Axis Bank earnings.
00:11:25 So you've got three banks, three banks in large cap space that will be supporting Bank Nifty.
00:11:29 You've got Karur and J&K in the broader markets.
00:11:32 Talking about the fall, so last Monday is when we had Bank Nifty at 48,071.
00:11:38 We've pretty much fallen one way down to levels of 45,000 odd,
00:11:42 which is 46,000 is where we closed yesterday.
00:11:44 Unlikely that it would go all the way back to 48,000 over the next day or two.
00:11:48 Even on Saturday, while there was a recovery on Bank Nifty, it was actually very weak.
00:11:52 So while there was a move of 350 points, it didn't come in with a lot of weightage
00:11:57 and that's one thing you want to be a little mindful of.
00:11:59 So there will be a rally, there will be a lot of participation,
00:12:02 but who's to tell how far this takes us.
00:12:05 Well, that's of course on Bank Nifty and the big bank earnings.
00:12:08 I've already mentioned to you why ICICI Bank remains an important stock in today's day of trade.
00:12:13 Largely speaking, the industry after disappointment from HDFC Bank
00:12:17 seems very impressed by what ICICI Bank has pulled together.
00:12:20 Strong earnings, margins haven't declined too much.
00:12:23 They are down about 10 basis points, especially in a quarter
00:12:26 and margins generally for the industry aren't looking very strong.
00:12:29 Gross NPS have declined to 2.3%.
00:12:32 Provisioning remains low and this is despite already having a very low sort of base of provisioning.
00:12:38 They provided for about 1100 odd crores, out of which for the AIF the provision is 650 crores.
00:12:45 Remember HDFC Bank provided 1200 crores for AIF write-offs.
00:12:50 ICICI Bank on the other hand has provided 650 crores.
00:12:53 So there's only 450 crores that it's actually providing for on a fairly large asset base.
00:12:58 So those are a few takeaways.
00:13:00 Their asset base stands at 1100 crores.
00:13:02 1100 crores is the provisioning and 650 of that is AIF.
00:13:05 So really solid numbers.
00:13:07 Markets will give this a thumbs up.
00:13:09 The stock will be seeing a positive gap up this morning.
00:13:12 A weak set of numbers with persistent – actually it's a mixed bag.
00:13:16 It's not really weak.
00:13:17 It's a decent set of numbers but brokerages, let me put it that way,
00:13:20 haven't been too aggressive with their upgrades coming in on the counter.
00:13:24 A couple of key takeaways, most of you have seen those numbers.
00:13:26 Headcounts were up 3.3% with utilization at 81.5%.
00:13:31 Again, sector leaders actually showing a downgrade in headcount.
00:13:35 ACV growth came in at 15% versus 12.6% quarter on quarter.
00:13:43 Management has indicated seeing green shorts.
00:13:46 Large deals continue for persistent.
00:13:48 They've had two large deals over $50 million
00:13:51 and that is a little bit of a positive for persistent.
00:13:53 Growth is led by healthcare and not BFSI.
00:13:56 Margins in healthcare, remember, remain low.
00:13:58 So you want to keep that in mind before you go out and, of course, acquire persistent.
00:14:01 But the big story this morning will remain Z.
00:14:04 Sony has called off the $10 billion deal with Z after two long years.
00:14:10 Z has spent about 360 crores already on compliance until September 2023 for this failed merger.
00:14:17 The key contention has been Puneet Goenka would lead the combined entity.
00:14:21 Sony Group, remember, has now will initiate legal battle claiming $90 million from Z.
00:14:27 Of course, the next step is arbitration post that they will go off to the courts and fight this out.
00:14:32 But for now, it seems like there's a long legal battle ahead.
00:14:35 The only good thing is Z Entertainment is in an F&O ban.
00:14:38 So the trashing this morning may be coming in with a little bit of a gap, I'm hoping.
00:14:42 And massive downgrades in the likes of CLSA to Newama don't seem very happy.
00:14:47 No, I think no brainer there that this is the end of the road.
00:14:52 But we've covered the story extensively and there's a lot more coming on Z.
00:14:57 Sony, so watch this space.
00:14:59 Some inside details of what actually happened.
00:15:01 But just peace and I don't know if you want to talk about it extensively in Editor's Cut.
00:15:07 The only question that remains, that it's a slam dunk is a given.
00:15:10 The only question that remains, what further damage can happen to Z?
00:15:14 And while it's a prolonged legal battle, social media is rife and actually market groups are rife
00:15:21 with questions around what happens, could there be other things that could come into play?
00:15:27 So I think it's a long, prolonged road ahead to perdition, if I can use that term.
00:15:32 The inside story about what actually happened in the end is very exciting.
00:15:37 You will be hearing it sooner or later.
00:15:39 So Z. Sony coming up, just a couple of more numbers that I want to talk about to add to Samina's list.
00:15:45 IDFC, First Bank, so their numbers were out as well.
00:15:49 On the face of it, earnings have missed estimates.
00:15:52 Profits were up 18% year on year but down 4.7% quarter on quarter.
00:15:58 The NII figures are 30% up year on year at 4 to 8 crores.
00:16:06 NIM figures are positive as well, up 28 bps year on year and about 10 bps up quarter on quarter
00:16:14 and other income is up.
00:16:15 But IDFC First is one to watch out for because of leadership.
00:16:19 Right now when you're talking about the whole banking pack, leadership is coming into question
00:16:25 and a consistent improvement in quality of assets is something which IDFC First you should look out for.
00:16:32 Spandana Spurty was another one I wanted to talk about.
00:16:35 It's a microfinance company based out of Kolkata, has been doing fairly well in the markets as well.
00:16:41 See, up about 45% on the stock in the last three months.
00:16:45 But look at the numbers.
00:16:47 Revenues up 73%, 74% standalone year on year.
00:16:52 Profits up 70%. But the AUM growth number is the one which is impressive,
00:16:57 up about 60% to Rs. 8,848 crores and their AUM outlook is very robust.
00:17:04 Their GNPA ratios have also fallen.
00:17:08 So when you're looking for quality financial assets, this is going to be one on the radar.
00:17:12 I must talk about CoForge because in the whole ups and downs and swings on the IT pack,
00:17:18 CoForge has consistently performed relatively well over the last three months,
00:17:23 stock up about 30%.
00:17:25 So the key things to look at apart from the numbers which are apparent is that
00:17:31 the management has maintained their guidance outlook which is about 13% to 16% on revenue and margins.
00:17:39 So they've maintained their top line guidance. That's a positive.
00:17:42 They do say of course demand environment will continue to be a challenge in FY25.
00:17:48 But they've had 300 million plus deal wins for the last eight quarters.
00:17:54 So just to quickly tell you what Citi is saying on CoForge,
00:17:57 they've maintained a sell with an unchanged target price of Rs. 4,910.
00:18:03 These are some, but there are so many stocks to watch today.
00:18:06 That list is massive, Neeraj.
00:18:08 It's very long.
00:18:09 So one, taking off from PM Modi's tweet,
00:18:12 so I think the renewable and the solar companies would be in focus.
00:18:15 So he put out a tweet yesterday that the first decision that I've taken after coming back from Ayodhya,
00:18:20 maybe we can pull up that tweet as well for you,
00:18:22 but the first is he says that the first decision that I've taken after coming back from Ayodhya
00:18:26 is to take a policy decision under a yojana so that one crore households will have rooftop solar.
00:18:34 Execution is a big thing away, but we know what happened to PSU names after PM Modi said in the parliament
00:18:41 that PSUs are the way to go.
00:18:42 So watch out for the solar companies, Tata Power, Vari Renewables, Adani Greens,
00:18:47 Sterling Wilson Solar, Borosil Renewables.
00:18:49 It's a set of stocks that could actually have a good move in the session today.
00:18:54 You can half anticipate that the market will be very, very excited about these names.
00:18:59 So the rooftop solar, the solar-related companies, all of them will be in focus.
00:19:03 I've mentioned five. There could be more. So watch out for those.
00:19:07 I say it's a bank. Samina has spoken about it.
00:19:11 I won't go there, but that brings the bank nifty into focus for sure.
00:19:14 Cipla is a big one. The numbers, and I know they mentioned that they are going to release the numbers
00:19:20 slightly ahead of what was earlier anticipated, but the numbers look solid.
00:19:24 13 percent uptick in revenue, margins at 26 percent versus 24 percent up to 23 basis points,
00:19:31 and the PAT up 32 percent YOY at 1,068 versus 807 crores.
00:19:37 So Cipla gave out with a very good set of numbers.
00:19:40 The point is for them, the U.S. markets showed that 12 percent growth.
00:19:44 Saga actually showed the majority of growth. Europe was a bit lower.
00:19:49 But be that as it may, the numbers per se look solid.
00:19:53 So that is the other one to watch out for.
00:19:55 And the third stock on my list before I hand it back, and we'll talk about some other stocks as well,
00:20:00 is Colgate. Now I know the valuations are expensive, but there's very little anticipated from FMCG names
00:20:07 per se this quarter, and in light of such a quarter, Colgate has come out and delivered an 8 percent revenue growth,
00:20:15 a near 550 basis points margin expansion, and a PAT number which is up 35 percent.
00:20:23 You know, yes, people will talk about valuations. There are notes which have come in and said
00:20:27 that we maintain a sell. I do believe, I may be wrong, but I do believe Colgate has a fighting chance
00:20:33 of showing a very strong move in the session today. So watch out for Cipla, watch out for Colgate,
00:20:39 and watch out for those renewable companies that could be in focus.
00:20:43 And Samina, I think you were talking about, because I mentioned Adani Green,
00:20:47 some of the Adani Green Group stocks also will be in focus today.
00:20:50 Indeed, in fact, after the investigations, remember, concluded a few weeks ago,
00:20:54 the Adani Group was found with no wrongdoings, as the court had indicated.
00:20:58 The S&P has taken a big cue from that and upgraded its outlook on Adani ports and Adani electricity
00:21:06 to stable from negative. They've said that the stable outlook reflects strong business fundamentals,
00:21:12 robust cash flows for both entities over the next 12 to 24 months.
00:21:16 They also expect the rated entities to not undertake any significant related party transactions
00:21:22 outside the normal course of business, and this is what the S&P Global release has said.
00:21:26 So another leg up, I think, for these counters. If any have been on a tear, they will continue to do well,
00:21:32 and this is great news coming in. From negative to stable is actually a pretty good up move in that sense.
00:21:37 Another count I want to quickly mention, which I don't think we've highlighted,
00:21:42 is Bharti may be in focus this morning, and the reason being that the board of Bharti Airtel
00:21:47 has approved the IPO of its subsidiary Bharti Hexacom, and this was filed in the regulatory filing on the 20th of Jan.
00:21:56 They own 70% in Bharti Hexacom, and 30% is owned by the government of India.
00:22:01 So there could be some activity. We will try and cover more of that as we go along.
00:22:05 But like we've been saying, there are lots of stocks, there are lots of brokerages,
00:22:08 and I think the list of earnings, Zenzar is the other one where earnings have come in, Persistent, Koforge, IT.
00:22:14 You've got a listing as well that we're watching.
00:22:17 So just a quick word on the listing before we get to the editors.
00:22:21 CutMedi, Assist Healthcare Services, is listing today.
00:22:24 It's a TPA, a third-party company for health insurance. Again, another very hot space,
00:22:31 and the issue price is of 418 per share. That IPO was subscribed 16.25 times,
00:22:37 and the buzz is that you might see a decent-ish premium there.
00:22:41 They were supposed to list yesterday, but of course, got pushed forward
00:22:44 because it was a markets holiday yesterday. So that's one I would watch out for.
00:22:48 Just two stocks before we toss to editors.
00:22:52 Cut, Gensol, very strong set of numbers, even if margins came off.
00:22:56 Revenues at 220 versus 50 crores and PAT of 12.3 versus a loss of 1.9.
00:23:01 Expect a reaction in Gensol Engineering.
00:23:04 And look at Lloyds Metal, which will do well. Very good sales and margin performance,
00:23:09 91% uptick in metals. And guys, before we toss to the editors,
00:23:13 Cut, VST Industries would be in focus. The stock saw a bit of a move
00:23:17 when Radhakrishnan Dhawani's name came into being, but look at the numbers.
00:23:21 Revenues up just about 6%, margins howler down 740 basis points,
00:23:25 net profit down 32%. The stock may well see a bit of a downtick here.
00:23:30 But we are about time on Trade Setup. A lot more, and it's time for editors.
00:23:35 And Alex could be an interesting one because the stock or the story firmly in focus today is Z.
00:23:42 No doubt. In fact, that has to be the big focus, of course, from the corporate side.
00:23:47 Culturally, religious significance, of course, the other big headline,
00:23:52 we've all spoken about it over the course of Monday and heading into today as well.
00:23:56 But incidentally, the man of the moment, if you can call him that,
00:24:00 was at the inauguration of the Ram Mandir as well.
00:24:04 Let's talk about Z Entertainment because really, I think you were talking about this on the Trade Setup
00:24:10 and you said it's a slam dunk. But there are a few more questions that I think remain unanswered.
00:24:15 And I think Sajith is going to lay out those questions for us.
00:24:18 The reason being that this entire deal, the people that are the institutions that were more focused on its fructification
00:24:26 were the institutions that were holding stake. And it's a considerable amount of Z Entertainment
00:24:31 that is held by institutions. So, what is the context?
00:24:34 What was the big problem that led to the deal supposedly being scuppered?
00:24:39 So, put the context in place. Two years ago, when the merger was announced,
00:24:45 Z was facing the biggest governance issue with respect to the group, SL group defaulting on some of the loans.
00:24:52 Many of the mutual funds had to take a hit because of that.
00:24:56 And this deal with Sony came as a savior for the institutions because they then thought that the merged entity
00:25:04 with Sony being the majority owner would be a game changer, not only for the entertainment industry
00:25:11 but also from their holding point of view. The stock is now pre-merger price.
00:25:17 And it's going to slip further because the industry dynamics have changed in the last two years
00:25:22 to set a context that you have a competitive industry, ad revenues are not growing,
00:25:27 profitability and EBITDA margins for Z has been falling in the last two years.
00:25:31 All this is putting in a lot of stress for Z and Z's financials.
00:25:36 In this context, the institutions play a bigger role now because 71% is held by them.
00:25:43 71%?
00:25:44 71% is held by them. So, to break it up, 32% is held by mutual funds.
00:25:48 And they've been backers of Pudin-Gaonkar through the times when the SL group was facing an issue
00:25:53 with respect to debt and other restructuring which was happening.
00:25:56 They had to sell off many of their assets to pay off the mutual funds.
00:25:59 Then you have insurance companies which are having 10%.
00:26:02 And then you have foreign financial institutions or foreign portfolio institutions which hold nearly 27%.
00:26:11 So, 71% odd is held by institutions and they have a big say in how this is going to do.
00:26:17 We've seen in the past that institutions can be active.
00:26:21 And this time, we're fearing the murmurs that there will be institutional activism that will come in asking for an EGM.
00:26:30 So, I don't know when it will come in, but there are murmurs.
00:26:33 The law requires them to have at least minimum 10% of the equity pooling so that they can ask for an EGM.
00:26:41 But that is going to be a big challenge for Z.
00:26:44 Z is also facing a big challenge with respect to Sony seeking $90 million in break-away fees.
00:26:50 So, that is exactly what we need to get to because that is the legal aspect.
00:26:53 Of course, there is going to be a challenge.
00:26:55 They've stated it clearly, Tamanna.
00:26:57 But that amount that is being claimed by Sony is going to be a big problem that Z will have to face now.
00:27:05 So, the sense I'm getting, of course, Z has very clearly said that they're going to go the legal route.
00:27:11 There's no mystery there.
00:27:14 It's in their press release that they will go the legal route.
00:27:17 Look at Puneet Goenka's tweet from Ayodhya where he says that this is a blessing from Lord Ram.
00:27:23 So, this story is going to evolve in very interesting ways.
00:27:27 The first logical step is that they go to an arbitration tribunal because now the fight will be about who pulled the plug.
00:27:35 Sony did pull the plug.
00:27:36 There's no confusion about that.
00:27:39 Why did they and were they justified in doing that?
00:27:42 So, Z will not only challenge in all likelihood the $90 million.
00:27:47 Don't be surprised if they have a counterclaim.
00:27:50 And that's what we're learning.
00:27:52 It's very likely that they will have a strong counterclaim coming in because they will say that we shut our international verticals to adhere to this deal.
00:28:01 We took on expenses to adhere to this deal and what about that because you were the one who pulled the plug.
00:28:07 The sense I'm getting is that the core legal argument from Z is going to be that the CPs, that's the conditions precedent that you need to fulfill a deal, that we did our part.
00:28:19 Some of those had to be operationalized once the merger date was finalized.
00:28:23 That never happened.
00:28:24 Some of them were joint conditions we had to fulfill which we could never do.
00:28:28 So, it's not on us.
00:28:30 It's on you.
00:28:31 This is going to be a long protracted fight.
00:28:34 We haven't seen the end of it yet.
00:28:36 Puneet Goenka, just before I come to you, Neeraj on the brokerages and what is likely to happen on the stock price.
00:28:41 But Puneet Goenka's role, even though a lot of people have spoken about it, that was in the original deal, right?
00:28:48 It is part of the original deal because he has built a business in Z Entertainment and that's the reason why when the promoters went through the worst in terms of SL loans and defaults, the mutual funds were backing Puneet Goenka in Z.
00:29:04 And that's the only reason why many of the mutual funds stood their ground and they stayed invested in Z Entertainment because there was Puneet Goenka there.
00:29:14 Now, things have taken a turn with respect to governance.
00:29:19 In the last two, two and a half years, there are a lot of related party issues which have come out.
00:29:25 There have been some provisioning which has been done, cleaning up the balance sheet which is done and still it's open there.
00:29:32 We don't know what is the extent.
00:29:34 Now, if you look at, I was just looking at the…
00:29:36 The investigation you mean?
00:29:37 Investigation is still on and SEBI has to come out with a final report.
00:29:41 But if you look at from a financial point of view, Z at the end of September had some 260 odd crores in cash.
00:29:46 Their trade receivables have gone up to 2100 crores from nearly 1500 odd crores at the end of March.
00:29:53 So, there is an issue with respect to cash coming back and we don't know how much of that is coming from related parties or distribution companies which are related to the group.
00:30:01 So, it is going to be a mess for Z in the short term.
00:30:07 There has to be some cleaning up which has to be done.
00:30:10 Conditions precedent is just a legal thing.
00:30:15 But if you are dealing with a US and a Japanese company, they will go to the dots, they will sign off only when the dots and the Ts are slashed.
00:30:26 Yeah, but you know Sajid, the question is that all of this is in the public domain.
00:30:31 Sony did an extensive due diligence.
00:30:34 The big mystery of the coming off of this deal is that there was nothing that was unknown.
00:30:40 If you and I and everyone knows that you know there were concerns in the books or quote unquote skeletons in the closet.
00:30:46 It was not a secret from Sony.
00:30:48 True, but…
00:30:49 So, the question at today is that what was going on for so long and what actually led them to pull the plug eventually.
00:30:55 So, true, you know the governance issue is not an old one.
00:30:58 Exactly.
00:30:59 It is not a new one, it is an old one which is there.
00:31:02 But there has been promises made saying that books will be cleaned up, subsidies will be shut which are non-compliant with US norms
00:31:09 or investments made in certain companies will be hived off which will not be part of the merger.
00:31:15 None of those has happened in the last two years.
00:31:17 Nor we have heard about it from the Z management in the last two years when they have spoken with the analysts.
00:31:22 Got it. I want to talk about the brokerages because a lot of them have come out Neeraj and put out a sell recommendation.
00:31:30 Chances are with the kind of sellers that will come into the play, into the fray today and there are unlikely to be buyers at this price at 230 rupees per share.
00:31:40 The stock price is going to go down through the floor.
00:31:42 Yeah, so I will just take 60 seconds because we are almost at the end also.
00:31:45 But suffice to say you do not need brokerages to tell you that the stock will go down.
00:31:48 Sure.
00:31:49 So it will go down, it will probably stay down. Very unlikely that there will be buying positions.
00:31:53 More importantly what happens next aside of the fact that there is a protracted legal battle.
00:31:57 Is it a cheap media asset? Yes.
00:32:02 But is there intensifying competition? Most certainly.
00:32:06 Sajid would be best placed to talk about this. We do not have time I know.
00:32:09 Maybe a bit later on in the show.
00:32:11 But remember that there is a potential mega deal in the competition ranks as well.
00:32:19 And does that bring to risk as per a city note the sub licensing of cricketing rights that Zee and Disney have as well.
00:32:27 Because supposedly in one of the notices Zee had missed one payment as well.
00:32:32 So are there issues out there too.
00:32:34 So while it is a cheap media asset it is one laden with problems.
00:32:39 Would people want to look at others which are a bit more stable.
00:32:41 I think I rest my case there. There will not be buyers.
00:32:44 But even if it is cheap maybe people want to look at stability as opposed to just something which there is a protracted legal battle.
00:32:51 I have a bigger fear here. You do not have time but yeah.
00:32:54 I have a bigger fear here. The problem is that there is very little of coverage to the media and entertainment space by institutions.
00:33:00 And Zee is the only one which is covered by many institutions.
00:33:04 If the governance issues and these are not sorted in a near term we will not have any coverage.
00:33:09 Okay. So it is incumbent on you Sajith and us to bring some coverage and some analysis.
00:33:14 Exactly.
00:33:15 So we will try and get you that.
00:33:16 And that brings us to the end of this particular edition of the Editor's Cut.
00:33:20 Maybe we do not have all of the answers but some of the answers hopefully you have gotten this morning.
00:33:24 We have got an exclusive lined up for you.
00:33:27 It will come to you after a very short break. So do stay tuned.
00:33:30 Thank you.
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00:36:29 Welcome back. You are watching India Market Open.
00:36:31 It is expected to be a solid start for D Street this morning.
00:36:34 But let us quickly dig a check of the top headlines as we gear up for trade.
00:36:38 It is the advent of a new era.
00:36:40 Ram Mandir will bring prosperity and developments as Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
00:36:44 And bulls are back across global equity markets.
00:36:47 Bank of Japan meeting I. China is up 3%. Asia trades firm.
00:36:52 Sony walks out of the Z merger deal, collapses brokerages, downgrades stock, likely to see a gap down open.
00:37:00 And ICICI Bank reports earnings better than street expectation.
00:37:04 Profits cross 10,000 crores for the very first time.
00:37:07 ADR trades the gain traded with a gain of 2.5%.
00:37:11 And the trade stock expected to rally up in trade this morning.
00:37:14 And S&P upgrades outlook for Dhani Electricity and Adani Ports to stable from negative on strong cash flows and competitive position.
00:37:24 Well, those are the top headlines that we are tracking this morning.
00:37:27 But we are gearing up for trade.
00:37:28 And Agam is always a standing by with more on that.
00:37:31 Agam, Saturday was a working day.
00:37:35 But participation was limited.
00:37:37 Bank Nifty saw quite a sharp rally, but it was a weak bounce if I'd like to believe.
00:37:42 But this morning, you've got access ahead of earnings.
00:37:45 You've got a reaction of Kotak and ICICI Bank, Karur and JNK.
00:37:48 So it's going to be a busy, busy day and fin expiry for Bank Nifty.
00:37:52 So I think that's going to be the star once again.
00:37:54 Yes, a lot of these factors are going to play out, Samina, today.
00:37:57 Well, let's start off with Saturday.
00:37:59 And while the volumes were low, it's not like FBIs and DIs weren't participating.
00:38:05 The participation was substantially low, which means that should we see a shot covering today,
00:38:11 you never know when, where and where to where you could in fact see the Bank Nifty
00:38:16 along with the Fin Nifty land up.
00:38:18 But let's start off with the basics.
00:38:19 As far as the Nifty goes, a quarter percent cut on Saturday.
00:38:24 And even as we see about a 2 percent increase in open interest,
00:38:27 need not necessarily be towards longs or shorts for that matter.
00:38:32 We're going to have to wait and watch for as to where this positioning building has come through
00:38:36 because of a significant lack of participation from your institutions.
00:38:41 As far as the Bank Nifty goes, again, an up move of a little less than 0.8 percent.
00:38:46 It's not a small up move, but again, this was also on relatively lower volumes.
00:38:51 And it could perhaps be a little bit of a prominence if we in fact do start seeing
00:38:57 a lot of volumes building up while the index also advances higher.
00:39:01 And that is a high chance because we did see the banking indices,
00:39:04 specifically from the private sector space, well, perk up.
00:39:08 And today, of course, we will have ICICI Bank also react,
00:39:11 which is why we could see the Bank Nifty move higher.
00:39:15 We did see a lot of unwinding as far as open interest is concerned.
00:39:18 Let's move on and talk about the options market.
00:39:20 And as far as the Nifty goes, on expected lines, since the index came off
00:39:25 by around a quarter percent, we saw a little more writing around the call side,
00:39:29 21.700, 21.800. And in terms of your open interest distribution overall,
00:39:35 for the moment we're seeing maximum OI in the 21.500 put,
00:39:40 which would give you a lower bound roughly.
00:39:43 And on the higher end, we have max OI around the 22,000 call.
00:39:47 In terms of the Finn Nifty too, well, we have seen a little more activity
00:39:52 around the call side as against the put side for now.
00:39:55 A lot more calls already written around the 20,700 mark.
00:40:00 Should we see some strength earlier on in the session?
00:40:03 It's quite likely that we will see a lot of unwinding in these specific calls.
00:40:07 So keep an eye on that one as well.
00:40:09 Finally, coming down to stocks, well, we did see Balkrishna Industries
00:40:12 look at longs, but shots building up for GNFCJ and JK Cement,
00:40:15 Gujarat Gas and Sun TV. And in terms of stocks, we saw unwinding.
00:40:19 We saw longs unwinding in Oracle Financial Services and BHEL.
00:40:22 Both these counters have been extremely strong off late.
00:40:25 And RBL Bank, Emphasis and L&T Tech looking at about a shot covering.
00:40:29 That's as far as the markets go. And the question really is,
00:40:33 what do we do with all this data? So let's bring in an expert here.
00:40:37 We have Ajit Rambia of Ajira Ventures who's joining us this morning.
00:40:41 Ajit, good morning and thanks for joining in.
00:40:43 Well, how are you looking at things shaping up?
00:40:46 Let's start with your view on the benchmarks, the Nifty and the Bank Nifty.
00:40:50 Yeah, good morning, Arvind. Thanks for having me on the show.
00:40:54 Looking at Nifty and Bank Nifty levels, it feels like the indices are poised
00:40:58 for a fresh up move, like creating a foundation of what could be an exciting future.
00:41:04 It's like the markets are up and about to launch after this recent expected correction.
00:41:09 We were talking about this correction since a long time and we have had a pretty good correction now.
00:41:14 During this period, we can accumulate quality stocks in sectors like railways and defense,
00:41:18 which are the flavor of the season right now. So as far as Nifty is concerned,
00:41:23 we can see a strong support at around 21,400 levels.
00:41:27 And resistance is placed at the recent all-time highs of 20,100 levels.
00:41:34 So and when it comes to Bank Nifty, we can place our support at around 45,500 levels
00:41:39 and resistance can be around 46,500 levels.
00:41:42 Okay. Ajit, let's talk about trading ideas and I believe the first one is on Bajaj Auto.
00:41:48 Yeah, last time we talked about the special situation in Bajaj Auto.
00:41:53 So we are bullish on this Bajaj Auto stock. The buyback price is of around 10,000 per share,
00:41:58 which will be favorable to the stock price to advance in the short term.
00:42:02 Here we suggested long bull spread, where we buy one call of 70,100 at Rs.89.
00:42:09 This is a Jan call and we sell one call of 7350 at Rs.22.55.
00:42:15 So our maximum gain could be Rs.184 for an investment of near Rs.66.
00:42:21 All right. So Ajit is playing a bull call spread on Bajaj Auto and at the moment,
00:42:26 what he is doing is that he is buying an at-the-money call and against that,
00:42:30 he is also selling an out-of-the-money call. And this, to a certain extent, can behave like a futures,
00:42:38 but only that your upside and your downside is limited.
00:42:42 And well, of course, you're taking advantage of an up move as far as Bajaj Auto is concerned.
00:42:48 It is one of the stocks he had suggested the last time we spoke about,
00:42:51 but this time around he has come in and actually given us a proper full-fledged strategy around Bajaj Auto.
00:42:57 Ajit, the other stock which is on your radar is Kotag Mandar Bank, if I'm not mistaken.
00:43:01 Can you take us through that one as well?
00:43:04 Right. So we have a bullish view for this counter. It has bounced from its support.
00:43:09 So we can initiate a protective put strategy whereby we buy a Jan futures of Kotag Bank for Rs.1810
00:43:17 and protect it with a long put of Rs.1790 at Rs.10.
00:43:22 So buying this, we protect our downside and take maximum advantage of the upside.
00:43:27 Our target price for this Jan expiry is Rs.1900.
00:43:31 Okay. Playing for a 100-point up move as far as Kotag Mandar Bank is concerned.
00:43:35 And at this point, well, Ajit, while he is going long on futures,
00:43:40 he's also going ahead and buying a put so that your downside can be capped to a certain extent.
00:43:45 And this, of course, will be for the Jan 25th expiry.
00:43:49 Ajit, thank you so much for joining us and taking us through your views on the markets
00:43:53 as well as giving us a handful of ideas. With that, it's over to you, Samina.
00:43:57 Thank you, Agam. It's going to be a busy morning.
00:43:59 Lots of action expected. All names will be back on track and Agam will have a busy morning.
00:44:03 But a quick check of news of your tracking in the global marketplace.
00:44:07 Bank of Japan, we've heard from them. In fact, they've of course made their announcement.
00:44:12 Bank of Japan has maintained its 10-year JGP yield target at 0%.
00:44:17 It maintains policy rate unchanged at minus 0.1 and extends its lending program by a year.
00:44:23 So no change there. I'm not even surprised, right?
00:44:26 Bank of Japan is not the kind of central bank that does moves unexpectedly.
00:44:30 Yeah, and the expectation widely was that they'll do it in the April meeting.
00:44:34 So I think we wait for that. So no changes out there. No bad news, no good news, but that's okay.
00:44:40 And I think the biggest story this morning will be China.
00:44:42 But you know, my only thing is, while Neeraj, we might see a little bit of a reaction to that expectation,
00:44:48 that big rescue package, this has been in the works for the last six months now.
00:44:53 Every time Asian markets go up or China rallies up, I think news finds its way that there is a package expected from China.
00:45:01 Yeah, and one never knows. But I think there is some move that's happened as you highlighted.
00:45:06 And maybe just for the day also, you never know. There could be an interesting move.
00:45:10 Some action.
00:45:11 Yeah, not so much in infra, but in metals for sure, simply because those markets just drive what's happening in China.
00:45:17 So that could be interesting. But Samina, beyond that, a clutch of things to watch out for this morning.
00:45:22 You highlighted on trade setup, but a lot more as well.
00:45:25 Yeah, yeah, yeah. So lots of stocks. Earnings, remember, we are in the thick of the earnings season.
00:45:29 So there will be, apart from the big ones that we've highlighted, reactions that we've expected.
00:45:33 Varsha is also joining us. She's been tracking numbers that have come in through the weekend.
00:45:38 Varsha, what do you have this morning? It's been busy all weekend.
00:45:41 Good morning, Samina. So a couple of earnings that have come over the weekend.
00:45:46 So starting with Oberoi Realty, where its third quarter profit fell by almost 50 percent.
00:45:52 It missed analyst estimates. Now, this is on the back of decline in its revenue.
00:45:56 If you see the revenue fell by almost 35 percent and the realty firm's expenses also saw a decline of almost 17 percent year on year.
00:46:05 Now, the key highlights for this company is it achieves gross bookings of almost 882 crores during the launch of its new tower at Oberoi Garden City in Mumbai.
00:46:13 And company also declared its second interim dividend of rupees 2 per equity share.
00:46:17 Then we have Cippla, where the numbers were in line with estimates.
00:46:22 A third quarter profit increase almost 32 percent year on year.
00:46:25 Their One India business grew at a healthy rate of almost 12 percent year on year,
00:46:29 backed by strong performance across branded prescriptions, trade generics and consumer health.
00:46:35 The U.S. business grew 18 percent in absolute terms to 1,916 crores.
00:46:40 And also if you see on the actor pharma acquisition, CCI approval has been received with integration expected to be completed in Q4 FY24.
00:46:49 Then we have Coforge, where revenue was up 2 percent. EBITDA was up 19 percent.
00:46:53 Margins were 13 percent versus 11 percent. They have signed three deals during the quarter.
00:46:59 Also, order intake was almost $354 million.
00:47:02 And total order book executable over the next 12 months stands at $974 million.
00:47:07 Then we have VST Industries, where revenue was up 6 percent.
00:47:11 But if you see EBITDA was down almost 23 percent and margins were 19 percent versus 27 percent last year.
00:47:18 And net profit was down over 32 percent.
00:47:20 Lastly, we have Gensol Engineering, the trigger for this company is that they are entering into EV business.
00:47:26 But if you see the numbers, revenue was up 4x followed by EBITDA and margins were down.
00:47:33 Margins were 28 percent versus 30 percent last year.
00:47:35 And if you see, our company has net profit almost 12 crore versus net loss of 1 crore last year.
00:47:42 Yeah, I think this is going by what the management has told us already about the kind of numbers that could come in,
00:47:50 the fundraising that they want to do. Watch out, Gensol could be an interesting one to monitor in the session today.
00:47:56 Varsha, thanks for bringing us a list of some of the stocks which might have a positive reaction.
00:48:03 Maybe Colgate could be added to that list as well.
00:48:06 But beyond earnings, there are some other stocks to watch in trade today.
00:48:10 Anushi has a list of those. Anushi, good morning.
00:48:14 Good morning, Neeraj. So first off, I'll start off with JSW Group,
00:48:17 which would be in focus after the government of Odisha has provided an incentive to set up an EV manufacturing unit over there.
00:48:24 So with this, the new project cost total investment is about 40,000 crore
00:48:29 and is expected to create employment opportunities for more than 11,000 people.
00:48:34 Next on the list is Keystone Realtors.
00:48:36 This is after the company has announced to redevelopment to redevelop two projects in the Mumbai region,
00:48:42 which spans at around 1,200 crore of gross development value.
00:48:48 The redevelopment sale potential is for 3.42 million square feet.
00:48:53 And with this, now the company has added about eight new projects so far in the fiscal,
00:48:59 which culminates to about total GDP of about 7,000 crore.
00:49:03 Next on the list is Adani Boats and Adani Electricity, wherein credit agency S&P has affirmed its rating for both of the companies.
00:49:12 Do note that Adani Electricity is the subsidiary of Adani Energy Solutions Limited.
00:49:17 So now the agency has revised its outlook to stay well from negative it had cited,
00:49:24 citing limited downside risk after the regulatory investigations took place for the Adani group.
00:49:31 For Adani Electricity, it added that it sees the ratio of its operating cash flow to debt to improve by over 10% in the next two years.
00:49:40 And as for Adani Boats, it cited that it now expects a ratio adjusted net debt to EBITDA of about three to four times over the next two years.
00:49:48 And lastly, a whole clutch of renewable stocks would be in focus post government's rooftop solar push,
00:49:55 wherein which includes stocks like Tata Power, Worry Renewable, Adani Green, SW Solar, just other some of the handful names.
00:50:03 This is after the government has launched the Pradhan Mantri Surya Yojana with a target of installing about rooftop solar in one crore houses.
00:50:12 This is in the aim to reduce the electricity bill for the poor and middle class people.
00:50:17 So these are the stocks that should be in focus today.
00:50:20 Okay, we'll watch out for these.
00:50:23 Most certainly PM Modi's tweet will set these stocks up on a tear this morning.
00:50:30 Let's see. Some of them have rallied already, but there could be more in store.
00:50:33 Tata Power, Worry Renewable, Adani Green, Sterling Whitsun Solar, Porto Cell Renewables, and maybe a lot more.
00:50:39 But there's an exclusive that we have with us.
00:50:42 Tamanna has some inside details on what went behind or what was the reason for the collapse of the Zee Sony merger.
00:50:51 That's the biggest story of the morning.
00:50:53 Tamanna, what are you learning?
00:50:54 So, you know, the question really begins, Neeraj, from after two years of conversations, one extension,
00:51:03 what eventually happened in the end to ensure that the deal fell through?
00:51:09 Look at it this way. It was a rejection of two proposals at the end of it and a complete standoff.
00:51:16 So sources close to the deal have described it at the end of the day as a battle for egos.
00:51:22 At the end hour, an extension was sought by Zee.
00:51:26 That's around the 20th of January to talk more.
00:51:30 They didn't give a timeline, but they wanted to talk more.
00:51:32 This was rejected, as were two proposals by Zee.
00:51:36 So what were those two proposals?
00:51:38 Proposal number one was let the merger go through as has been OKed by the shareholders.
00:51:44 That version of the merger would mean that Puneet Goenka remains at the helm, but for a short period of time.
00:51:51 The proposal was that within a definitive timeline, we'll sit across the table
00:51:56 and then hunt for a neutral CEO acceptable to both sides, Zee and Sony.
00:52:01 That proposal was rejected.
00:52:03 Proposal number two then was that Puneet Goenka will step down.
00:52:07 And this is something that we learned in the press release yesterday as well.
00:52:10 The first time it was clear that he was willing to step down.
00:52:14 All that was demanded then was that at least one board seat should be retained
00:52:21 either for the promoter family or their nominee, because they still have just 4% stake,
00:52:28 but of course a huge legacy of running this company and starting this company.
00:52:33 That proposal too was rejected flat out.
00:52:36 The counter or what Sony was OK with was two things.
00:52:40 Puneet Goenka goes, he steps down and no board seat for him or his nominee.
00:52:47 N.P. Singh, who was their first choice, should be the CEO.
00:52:51 This is what they were adamant on at the end of it.
00:52:55 So what scuttled the deal at the nth hour?
00:53:00 For one, that Sony had the upper hand, Sony calls the shots and they finally did end up pulling the plug.
00:53:08 What next for Zee? What comes next is of course the big question.
00:53:12 They will go legal, there is no question about that.
00:53:15 They are looking at a strong legal challenge.
00:53:17 For one, they have to hit back against the claim of $90 million.
00:53:22 But they are also likely, don't be surprised if they make a counter claim for losses.
00:53:27 So now what sources close to the deal are telling me is that most of the CPs,
00:53:31 the conditions that were set for the deal were met from Zee's side of it.
00:53:36 Those that weren't met included some which had to be operationalised after the deal went through
00:53:41 and some were joint conditions that had to be met by Sony and Zee in tandem.
00:53:47 On the other hand, they have also picked up a lot of expenses for the merged entity,
00:53:51 including the cricket rights which they now have to pay up.
00:53:54 They have shut verticals in certain markets which were competitive to Sony
00:53:58 and all of those costs now overhang.
00:54:01 So we are going to see a very bitter battle going ahead, guys.
00:54:06 Well, no surprise and that should keep the stock subdued.
00:54:11 And the long legal battle, I think that's the key takeaway, battle of egos leading to this.
00:54:16 Well, suffice to say Zee will start off lower.
00:54:19 Shrikant Chauhan, Executive VP and Head of Equity Research at Cortex Securities joins us.
00:54:23 Shrikant, thanks for joining me. Before we get to the markets at large,
00:54:26 since we are on the topic of Zee and Sony, would love to understand how you think about this.
00:54:30 Now that we know that the stock will start off lower, so assume a large gap down open,
00:54:37 is there a trade in Zee post such an opening?
00:54:43 Yeah, good morning, Neeraj.
00:54:45 See, I think if we see the market, I mean to say the Zee is opening down after the specific announcement,
00:54:52 which is more likely, then the next level to watch out for would be close to 190 and 170
00:54:59 because there the stock has spent a lot of time.
00:55:01 And when there was specific news on the deal, the stock was close to 170, 160 levels.
00:55:07 So from there, all the way it moved to the levels of 290 or 300, where it has spent a lot of time.
00:55:12 So the broader range is between 170 and 290.
00:55:15 And in case if we see the stock is dropping to 180, 170 levels,
00:55:19 I think there we should look for adding the position because I'm not expecting stock to break down the levels of 170 so easily.
00:55:27 At the same time, this 230 is going to act as major resistance, which was earlier support for the stock.
00:55:33 So in case if there is any rebound, then again, the chances of hitting 230, 235 will turn bright.
00:55:38 So ideal strategy should be to buy if the stock falls to 170, 180 levels.
00:55:43 But at these levels, it is better to stay away.
00:55:46 Shrikant, that of course is the trade on Zee, avoid it at these levels.
00:55:50 If you see a fall to 170, it becomes a buy call, at least on the charts.
00:55:54 Shrikant, what's the call on the Nifty?
00:55:57 Saturday was okay in terms of trading, but this morning we're expecting an opening around levels of 21,700, 21,750.
00:56:04 If we get a start at those levels, what would you do on the Nifty this morning?
00:56:08 Would you trade it?
00:56:10 See, close to these levels, I mean to say 21,720, 21,750, the market has spent a lot of time in the month of December.
00:56:22 It was like consolidating around this level, 750, 760, and eventually it has broken that level and we saw the levels of 22,000.
00:56:30 So close to again 21,750, 725, I'm expecting the market to come under some profit-taking pressure.
00:56:37 But in case if we see the market is sustaining well above the 7, then the chances of hitting 21,850 or maybe 950 would turn bright, where the market has left a bearish gap.
00:56:49 So yes, there are fair chances because now the global macros are turning positive.
00:56:55 World equity indices are doing better than the expectations.
00:56:59 So in case if we see extension of the pullback, then the chances of hitting 21,850 would turn bright.
00:57:06 But broadly, my strategy is that the markets are going to remain in a range.
00:57:10 And if we see the market is close to 21,850, take some profit on long positions.
00:57:15 And with a very short-term view, one should look for adding positions above 21,725.
00:57:21 But the final stop loss for any long position should be at 21,500 because below that we can expect weakness up to maybe 21,000 or 21,250.
00:57:32 So 21,500 and 21,850 is the broader range that we are expecting in the near term.
00:57:38 And for the Bank Nifty, 46,900 is the resistance level.
00:57:42 But yes, here we can expect some short covering above 46,300 levels.
00:57:47 Indeed it is. I think Bank Nifty will be the star of today's trade.
00:57:50 We'll take a quick break. GIFT Nifty is indicating an opening closer to 21,750.
00:57:54 We'll come back, continue our conversations with Shrikant and Pankaj also joins us on the other side.
00:57:59 So stay tuned.
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01:00:36 Welcome back. You're watching the India Market Open.
01:00:41 Just about 15 odd minutes to go before we open.
01:00:44 A quick check on the implied open this morning and the GIFT Nifty and see where we're headed.
01:00:48 Are we going to have another rocky volatile day?
01:00:51 Doesn't seem like it. Seems like very positive cues on open.
01:00:55 Pankaj Pandey, Head Research at ICSA Direct now with us.
01:00:58 We're also of course continuing to speak with Shrikant Chauhan.
01:01:02 Let me begin with your take on banks today.
01:01:06 Are we going to see a reversal in mood led by private banks?
01:01:10 ICSA bank results seem to have enthused the market.
01:01:13 You have Axis coming up next.
01:01:15 Already a positive reaction on Kotak Mahindra Bank.
01:01:18 What is your take here and is there anything that you would now pick up?
01:01:24 So hi, good morning. Thanks for having me.
01:01:27 So I think on ICSA bank, overall numbers were subdued and the expectation of 5 to 7 bips of name improvement did not happen,
01:01:37 which is why we had to cut our target price to 1800 from 2015.
01:01:42 Now, the rest of the banking number, I can't talk about ICSA bank being part of the same group,
01:01:47 but the rest of the banking numbers have been quite okay.
01:01:50 So I think our sense is that banking or bank nifty, which was witnessing a significant decline,
01:01:58 largely driven by or incurred by ICSA bank, I think should get arrested.
01:02:05 And overall our sense is that if Axis bank numbers today come out and meet expectations,
01:02:13 then I think our sense is that probably you will have legards like JFC Bank, which may not do much of a price performance.
01:02:21 But rest of the private sector banks will continue to sort of keep doing well.
01:02:25 I think Kotak or even IGFC First Bank, numbers were quite okay and even the guidance looked quite okay.
01:02:31 So from that perspective, I think there is some respite expected on the bank nifty.
01:02:37 All right. Stay with us, Pankaj and Srikant.
01:02:40 We are joined now by Karan Torani, Senior Vice President at Ellara Capital to talk about all things media, entertainment and of course, Zee.
01:02:47 Karan, a very good morning.
01:02:48 A whole host of news and insights and information since we last spoke nearly a little over 24 hours ago.
01:02:57 What is clear is that the deal is dead in the water and there is a huge legal battle going ahead.
01:03:02 What is the kind of cut you expect to the stock today?
01:03:07 So I think in terms of a potential downside, we have a target price of 170, which is about 25, 26 percent lower as compared to the current price.
01:03:17 I think that the bigger delta here is the cut on the evaluation multiple.
01:03:23 Sony as a company was supposed to also get cash infusion, the most company.
01:03:28 Secondly, there was a very big respite to the valuation multiple because both the companies could have worked for multiple synergies.
01:03:36 Both companies could have worked for gaining potential market share in the ecosystem, which is already heavily consolidated.
01:03:44 So this is that, you know, we are building a very good scenario for Sony Zee Merge Co.
01:03:49 But because of the deal not going through, I think Zee on a standalone basis will struggle in the M&E market.
01:03:55 And so it was Sony as well. Right. I mean, both companies are going to see negative impact of this merger.
01:04:00 And why Zee more is because, frankly, you know, they've also kind of entered into the sports contract with Disney for TV rights.
01:04:08 Now, it depends in terms of whether they own it or not. That's still not known.
01:04:12 But if at all, they honor that, it could be even tougher for Zee because, you know, even that segment could see hefty losses because of, you know, sports being available free on OTT, if at all, going ahead as well.
01:04:24 And also there are multiple legal proceedings, the legal proceedings with Sony, which could happen, legal proceedings with the current creditors, you know, right from Axis Finance to IDBI from the from the asset side.
01:04:36 So I think it's going to be it's going to be tough for Zee. And I think valuation multiples for the core broadcasting will never will not be able to move beyond 10 times.
01:04:45 You might find, you know, some kind of a strategic partner, if at all, that is someone which could lead to some kind of a spike for valuation multiples.
01:04:53 But multiples will never go to the band of 18, 20 times forward, what we had assumed, you know, in the case of Zee Sony merger, because a lot more was being bought into the company.
01:05:03 Apart from, you know, just a part of it was a lot of synergies, a lot of technological expertise and the MNC backing.
01:05:09 And I don't think there are too many options right now in the MNC industry, right? I mean, Disney already is in talks with RIL.
01:05:15 So I think apart from Sony, they do not have any last company to, you know, try to get talks with. So I think it's going to be a tough time, you know, for Zee in the middle of all these things.
01:05:24 In fact, the stock already nearly 10 percent down in a pre-open and we're likely to see up to a 25 percent cut as per Karan Torani of Ilara.
01:05:35 Karan, the fact is that this company still has about a 16 percent market share and like you're saying that they are going to fight back with a strong legal battle.
01:05:47 Do you see any kind of a bottom for this company or is it something that you would write off any kind of investment list completely?
01:05:56 I think yes. So tactically, if you look at the bottom, if they do not honor the Disney contract, the bottom could be around 170.
01:06:06 But if at all they go ahead and honor the Disney contract, the losses because of sports will increase and that will impose more pressure on profitability.
01:06:14 And in that case, the bottom could even be 130. Now, the only point is that what are the triggers for the stock?
01:06:21 What will lead to the surprise in terms of earnings or potential market share? Obviously, the business performance.
01:06:29 But the business performance has been quite volatile and it's not about blaming Zeeware.
01:06:35 Business performance is also a matter of the market. So market dynamics are not being favorable.
01:06:39 Linear TV is not growing. Digital is growing, but there's a struggle for profitability.
01:06:45 Zeefire, the OTT platform is also making hefty losses. So not much of triggers here to play even at that bottom of 130, 160 or 170,
01:06:54 which is there for the stock to move to 250 unless there is some sort of a strategic partner who comes in and there is a minor risk
01:07:02 to valuation multiples basis. So if there is some strategic partner, yes, potentially the stock can move again back to a 250.
01:07:09 But going back to 350, 400 is highly unlikely, as I told you, because what Sony was getting on the table,
01:07:15 no other strategic partner will be able to get that kind of thing.
01:07:19 Okay. Karan, appreciate that clarity. Thanks so much for taking the time out and being with us today and giving us those thoughts.
01:07:25 So Zee, Slam Dunk and Karan Torani believes a long, long time away from any kind of a pullback.
01:07:31 But I want to mark some other names and just see what they're doing in the pre-open session.
01:07:35 Is CIPLA, is ICICI Bank showing that spark on open? Is Colgate doing that?
01:07:41 CIPLA is up 6% in pre-open, ICICI Bank 5.5% and Colgate is the other one that I want to mark, flat as flat can be.
01:07:48 But CIPLA, clearly the star of the day. Now, we haven't taken stock ideas from Srikant, but I want to discuss CIPLA first.
01:07:54 Pankaj, to you first, then Srikant to you on CIPLA. Pankaj, these results, a 6% reaction probable.
01:08:02 What does one do now? What did you make of the results?
01:08:06 So, Dheeraj, for CIPLA, I think the overall US revenue trajectory was pretty much in line with the expectation of $220-$230 million.
01:08:17 A good part also is that the evidence-based guidance is also good at 23.4%.
01:08:23 So, CIPLA, good set of numbers and our sense is that numbers overall have been beat on most of the parameters.
01:08:31 And this is happening despite the fact that there are still some pending USFDA resolutions.
01:08:36 So, despite all that, the company has come out with a good set of numbers. I'm not surprised with the reaction.
01:08:42 And I think pharma has gone through a switch, which has been sort of going well.
01:08:46 So, CIPLA, I think, should keep going well. We'll sort of come back with the numbers in terms of what kind of target price we put.
01:08:55 Srikant, a 6% pop-up near 1400 now. Pankaj is constructive on the numbers. It looked that way too.
01:09:03 Can you do a trade on it post such a large gap-up?
01:09:07 Srikant, you're on mute. Sorry, you'll have to unmute yourself.
01:09:15 Yeah, Dheeraj. So, whenever we saw gap-up opening for CIPLA, we saw some profit-taking.
01:09:22 And later on, we see some consolidation and eventually the stock moves to the, or it follows to the specific positive or negative news flow.
01:09:32 So, this time also, after opening close to 1385 or maybe some 1400 levels, we are expecting stock to find some profit-taking pressure at higher levels.
01:09:43 1450, 1475 is the next leg of resistance where the CIPLA can stop.
01:09:51 But in case if there is any correction during the day after opening at 1385 or 1400, then close to 1350, again, we should look for adding positions.
01:09:59 We are expecting stock eventually to move towards 1700 or 1800 based on technicals.
01:10:05 But in the near term, 1450, 1475 is the next leg of resistance. And on dips, the strategy should be to buy.
01:10:12 ICICI Bank, what is the expectation there? If we can just pull that up in pre-open and see what it's getting up to.
01:10:19 It was a strong move on overnight trade, 5% on ICICI Bank. So, solid in terms of pre-open.
01:10:27 How do you play this one if you get a start at 1060?
01:10:30 Yeah, I think ICICI Bank is relatively much, much better than any other stock right now in terms of correlation and…
01:10:39 Mohit Pankaj, please continue with your answer. You said it was better than the other banking names and we lost you at that point.
01:10:50 Yeah. So, it is better than the other bank stocks and it is relatively doing much better than a few private banks like IndusInd Bank or HDFC Bank.
01:11:03 So, while looking at its technical pattern, the next level to watch out for would be 1060 where it is opening.
01:11:09 But in the best case scenario, the stock may even go up to 1220, 1230 where it has next leg of resistance.
01:11:16 And even if we go through with a few fundamental or broking firms, then the fundamental target is close to 1220, 1230.
01:11:24 So, we are of the view that it is certainly going to do well. But the strategy should be to buy on dips instead of chasing at higher levels.
01:11:31 1020 is now going to act as major support for me.
01:11:35 Beyond IBank, any other top trades? What are your top calls this morning?
01:11:40 Yeah, I think the way ICICI Bank has reported its number now, we need to keep a close watch on State Bank of India because here also we are expecting stock to do well.
01:11:51 Also, if we go through with its upside target based on fundamentals, based on technicals, then it is close to 700, 720 plus.
01:11:59 So, there is clear cut upside and 615 acted as major support since last almost a month.
01:12:06 So, 615 should be the final stop loss for creating any long positions on State Bank of India.
01:12:11 We are expecting minimum 650, maximum could be 700 in next maybe few weeks of time.
01:12:17 And also we like Adani Ports which is around 1198 or maybe 1190.
01:12:25 So, it is a buy at current levels because it is a reversal pattern on daily basis.
01:12:30 We can keep stock loss at 1160 for creating positions on Adani Ports.
01:12:34 We can expect 1250, 1260 on the higher side.
01:12:37 All right. Another pre-open pop that we are seeing is on the energy side and renewable energy side is something that Neeraj mentioned earlier as well.
01:12:48 The whole index is up. But look at Tata Power up about 6%.
01:12:52 Adani Green doing well. Areda also looking good.
01:12:57 But Areda also has the results push coming in.
01:13:01 Pankaj, any views on some of these names?
01:13:05 So, these companies we do not track most of these companies. So, I will not be able to comment.
01:13:12 But Tamela, just a simple point, right. Look at Vari, look at Tata Power, look at Adani Power.
01:13:17 There is no question of execution but one crore rooftops, solar rooftops is an indication of just the start that the policy that the government wants to come in.
01:13:30 And therefore, just that policy push, we saw what happened to railways because of policy push.
01:13:34 We have seen what happens to PSUs because of policy push.
01:13:36 Solar has been on for a while.
01:13:38 Yeah, but this is now a definitive move ahead that while the companies are setting up the plants, we are talking of one crore rooftops.
01:13:45 And rooftop solar we know from Elon Musk's experience is not a cheap thing to do.
01:13:50 And therefore, there is a clear runway for growth and which is why I think the Adani Power, Varis and the Tata Powers are showing what they are showing this morning.
01:13:57 I would also look very carefully if there is any allocation at all in the vote on account coming up or any clear policy direction.
01:14:05 Just very quickly before we go into open, Shrikant, I am not sure if you track any of those energy names and I also wanted to know your view on CoForge.
01:14:14 Yeah, sure. I think Tata Power is doing really well.
01:14:19 It is forming higher top, higher bottom on almost all the time frames.
01:14:23 Also, it is into long term breakout.
01:14:26 So the next level to watch out for would be 370, 375 and in the best case scenario, 400.
01:14:31 We are specifically bullish on Tata Power based on its technical pattern.
01:14:36 Otherwise, fundamentally, the stock is overvalued.
01:14:38 It is trading above its all valuation parameters.
01:14:41 But technically, it is showing that it is forming upside sort of formation.
01:14:46 We also like Adani Power and there also we are expecting stock to move towards the next level, next levels of 650 or 660.
01:14:54 Here also it is consolidating and we also like REC where there is specific news flow.
01:14:58 So REC is also a stock to watch out for because the stock is moving towards the levels of 500 plus.
01:15:04 So these are the stock on which we are keeping a close watch.
01:15:07 We have got another three minutes to go as we are gearing up for trade.
01:15:12 We have seen a whole host of earnings on the weekend.
01:15:14 Is there anything that stood out for you that you would look and buy in today's day of trade?
01:15:18 Yeah, we also like NHPC, which is around some 82, 83 levels based on its pre-opening prices.
01:15:30 But the way there is a run up in the stock in the last three days along with rise in volumes and the way there was a response for OFS,
01:15:39 I think the stock is heading for at least 95, 96 in the next maybe few weeks.
01:15:44 So it is a positional trade to buy with a target of 95 to 100 with a stop loss at 75 on the downside.
01:15:51 We wanted to know your last minute calls if you can hear us.
01:15:54 Yeah, I think…
01:16:00 Pankaj, I don't know if Pankaj can hear us.
01:16:02 No, I can hear you.
01:16:04 Yes, so please go ahead, Pankaj.
01:16:06 So I think within the results, we like both the names, both Kofor and Persistent.
01:16:12 I think Kofor is 1.4% kind of growth.
01:16:15 Because this is the only company which is sort of guided for some 13 to 16% kind of growth in 2024.
01:16:22 And our sense is that they will be able to meet the lower end of the guidance of say 30% not.
01:16:28 So this company look good.
01:16:30 Persistent numbers look quite good with 3% kind of growth.
01:16:34 So I think here two names within the IT pack are relatively doing a lot more better and that is the space what we would sort of like.
01:16:42 Okay, Pankaj, stay on.
01:16:45 We've spoken about results.
01:16:47 Maybe we'll talk about some other stocks as well.
01:16:49 But clearly Persistent Systems showing why it has persistently moved up.
01:16:54 I mean, aside of the technical piece of the stock split, just the fact that quarter after quarter, Sandeep Kalra and team are able to deliver the kind of numbers that they are is quite stunning.
01:17:05 And it will stay up as one of the top names this morning.
01:17:08 But of course, the biggest name today will be ICICI Bank.
01:17:12 Here are the first rates this Tuesday morning.
01:17:15 We starting off well about 21711 courtesy ICICI Bank.
01:17:21 We get the contribution points contribution as well today just to show what's driving and they'll come in a moment.
01:17:27 But first, mark the headliners.
01:17:29 The Bank Nifty should come up after having a terrible last week courtesy HDFC Bank is a bit of a respite here.
01:17:35 Maybe some of the others are participating and we'll get to that as well.
01:17:38 The broader end of the spectrum, mid cap and small cap indices.
01:17:41 Mid caps 0.7 percent, small caps not doing well and a peppering of mid cap IT as well as renewable names would be right up there.
01:17:50 Let's get the heat map up on the screen and ICICI Bank right here at the top end.
01:17:55 Actually, CIPLA more than that, five and a half percent.
01:17:58 ICICI Bank, not that five percent that we saw on open, but still about three and a half percent.
01:18:03 Not bad. Apollo Hospitals has a move.
01:18:05 I wonder if I'm missing something.
01:18:07 Can't really think at the back of my head why this could be happening.
01:18:10 NTPC, I'm not surprised. Everything related to power would be doing well.
01:18:13 Samina highlighted Bharti with the subsidiaries, gameplay out there and about a couple of percentage points for that one.
01:18:21 TCS and HCL Tech.
01:18:23 So IT is coming to the fore. Reliance is up about a percent as well.
01:18:28 But the stock of the morning has to be CIPLA.
01:18:31 The six percent up move. We are for a change, not seeing any kind of pressure on open on CIPLA.
01:18:38 Despite this very strong six percent up move.
01:18:40 Let's see what happens. Remember, across line items, across geographies, CIPLA's performance, except for Europe,
01:18:47 seemed to be very, very strong. Interesting to see if it really says higher.
01:18:51 Asian paints as a bit of a corrective move. HDFC Bank continues from where it left off last week.
01:18:57 So another point seven, seven percent. Guys, this is very interesting as to what's happening in banking.
01:19:02 HDFC Bank at one end versus maybe some of the others.
01:19:05 I don't see Kotak at the top end of the list, but that could be interesting.
01:19:08 So from the large caps, the highlight Tamanna, CIPLA clearly standing out.
01:19:14 CIPLA on the back of numbers. So very solid reasons there coming in for that CIPLA kind of boom.
01:19:20 But let's take a look at some of the other stocks that are on our list.
01:19:24 And can we really not talk about Z or avoid talking about Z when we start looking at what's happening in the broader markets?
01:19:32 No, we can't. Absolutely. That stock very steady at a 10 percent lower level right now.
01:19:39 And the expectations are that the target price could go down as much as 170 or 180.
01:19:45 Dish, if we can pull up, is feeling that pain as well. Everything in that group.
01:19:50 In fact, M&E, media and entertainment as a space is down today.
01:19:54 So we'll take a look at that in a bit. Suntech Reality is the other one on my radar.
01:19:59 Suntech and Oberoi actually, because look at what's been happening in the reality space.
01:20:04 Huge amounts of excitement here. And that's continuing with Suntech.
01:20:09 Jeffries has maintained a buy rating. They have a target price of 563.
01:20:13 Really, even though the nine month pre-sales have lagged guidance,
01:20:17 but they're optimistic on management doubling its pipeline under execution to 60,000 crores in three years.
01:20:24 Oberoi Reality is the other one. Numbers weren't great. Numbers weren't great for the quarter.
01:20:30 And that's really showing very clearly in the stock price today. Revenues down 35 percent.
01:20:35 EBITDA down 45, 46 percent. Margins down 936 bps.
01:20:42 So a bit of a cut over there that you're seeing. Even net profit was down quite a bit.
01:20:48 So you're seeing numbers, in fact, they're staying with numbers because corporate results is one of the big drivers in the market right now.
01:20:53 I want to talk about Lloyds Metal. The numbers looked quite robust and the stock up about three and a half percent.
01:21:01 Just look at this. Ninety one percent up on revenues. EBITDA up 97 percent. Margins up 72 bps.
01:21:09 So strong numbers there. Svandana Spurthy also in that category of stocks, which had pretty good numbers,
01:21:16 but the stock down about one percent today. So maybe more to that story that we could see panning out.
01:21:23 So some of these stocks are on my list. But of course, a lot of action in the markets today.
01:21:28 He guesses the top gain in the broader markets is IRFC once again.
01:21:32 There is no stopping this guy. 400 percent in six months. 95 percent in the last 10, 12 days.
01:21:39 Another 8 percent being added. This is, I think, the story that we cannot get our eyes off.
01:21:44 There really is no stopping in IRFC and Rail Vekas. Both those stocks have been your big, big performers in trade.
01:21:51 Renewable Energy, we've talked about the Prime Minister's tweet and that means stocks across that space are doing really well.
01:21:58 Borosil Renewable, if you can pull that one up, good volumes. Adani Green, of course, is up about 1.6 percent.
01:22:04 Borosil Renewable is up 15 percent. Now, that's a massive gain coming in. Volumes as well are looking very, very healthy.
01:22:11 SJVN, if you can pull that one up, gaining on back of exactly the same reason.
01:22:16 Renewable Energy, that's a big push, 2.5 percent move there. Vari, if I can pull that one, it was indicating to a gap up in pre-open trade.
01:22:23 We should be seeing some more buying emerging on that stock as well. Persistent numbers were, if I can pull up also,
01:22:33 okay, that's persistent for you. Numbers seem to be largely in line. Takeaways were, headcount was looking good.
01:22:40 A couple of big deals were flowing in. All that is contributing well. The stock is up nearly 4 percent.
01:22:45 Karur VSI Bank, again, numbers were ahead of what the street was expecting, on back of which the stock trades the gain of nearly 5 percent.
01:22:53 Steel or other metal counters also in focus this morning on anticipation of bailout package with the Chinese government.
01:23:00 Stocks like NMDC are trading quite firm. IDFC, it's seen its biggest fall in over seven months.
01:23:07 Persistent numbers are weak. The stock is down 4 odd percent when I last checked.
01:23:11 So, interesting, the morning again belongs to railway stocks. But beyond that, you've got smaller pockets that we are seeing.
01:23:17 Stocks like in the renewable space, for example, earnings reaction is also what you have.
01:23:22 Anything else that I can pick up on, Sipla, like Neeraj indicated, is still looking really good.
01:23:27 IRFC, Sterling Wilson, Max Healthcare, Aegis Logistics is the other big gainer.
01:23:33 Petronet, Tata Power are some of the other big names.
01:23:37 But Borosil, Neeraj sir, from the broader market is up 15 percent. All it took was one tweet.
01:23:43 Yeah, all it took was one tweet.
01:23:44 And going back to IRFC and railway, because this is now beginning to make me question the sanity in this.
01:23:50 90 percent in seven days, seven trading days, 400 percent in six months.
01:23:55 And they still come back with a, okay, it's easing off now.
01:23:57 This is the very first time I've seen this in the last 12 days where after a gap up, we've seen some profit taking.
01:24:02 But finally, sanity is prevailing. I think those counters still in a very sweet spot.
01:24:07 But the gains continue to roll in. But I think the start of today is Sipla and this renewable energy.
01:24:13 Those guys are doing quite well.
01:24:14 Yeah, and just the point that we are not by any chance saying that these companies do not have massive potential ahead of them.
01:24:21 Just the quantum of rally that has happened for the railway stocks in the last few days is just that question.
01:24:27 Now, before we let you go, Pankaj Pandey, can you come in on this?
01:24:32 I mean, are you guys buyers or telling your clients to buy into any of the railway stocks,
01:24:38 be it the Tata Techs, Macco, Jupiter Wagons or IRFC, Rites, what have you, that whole bucket of 10 stocks?
01:24:46 Are you guys buyers there?
01:24:48 So, Neeraj, slightly worried on some of the counters like IRFC, because last I checked,
01:24:54 it was trading closer to four time book with that kind of ROA.
01:24:59 Did not really look that the linkage between what fundamental the company is carrying.
01:25:04 So I think there are some pockets which have done well, be it real estate or be it railway stock.
01:25:09 We would not really sort of service to keep chasing the momentum in some of these things.
01:25:16 All right. All right. Pankaj, thanks so much for joining us today.
01:25:21 We'll let you go. But, Shrikant, just your take on what's happening in the health care pack.
01:25:26 And let's talk about Cipla on a tear today.
01:25:30 What do you think about it on the levels? Max Health also doing very, very well today.
01:25:35 In fact, that entire space, you know, completely in the pink of health or the green of health as the case might be.
01:25:42 Your thoughts there, Shrikant?
01:25:45 Yeah, I think, see, the broader pattern for Cipla is very strong.
01:25:49 And based on its long term charts, I think it is heading for seventeen hundred to eighteen hundred.
01:25:55 But if we see the overall beta of this company, then it is like very slow and it is moving parallel to the broader trend of the market.
01:26:04 So, yes, gradually we are seeing upward activity.
01:26:07 But at current levels, after opening such a higher by five, six percent as compared to its previous lows,
01:26:12 I think the buying is advisable if there is any correction during the week, close to 1350 or maybe 1320 sort of levels instead of chasing at higher levels.
01:26:24 There are like a number of other stocks like Sun Pharma, which is doing well.
01:26:27 It is about its important level of 1330. So there we are expecting now 1400 or 1450 sort of levels.
01:26:35 We also like Sun Pharma Advanced Research, which is close to what I can say it is around 383, 384.
01:26:43 But the way the stock has shown spectacular rally in the previous month, I think it is heading for the levels of 450 or 470.
01:26:51 So there also we can make some returns on our investment if we buy at current levels, because now the stock has corrected from the highs of 425.
01:26:59 So Spark looks good, Sun Pharma looks good, Lupin is doing well.
01:27:03 So maybe Pharma stocks, they are going to do well in next maybe 10-12 days of time after the result of CIPLA.
01:27:10 And Lupin is also quoting about the important level of 1430.
01:27:15 So there also we are seeing gradual upward activity towards 1700.
01:27:18 So broadly, I think PharmaPAC is going to do well. That's the one.
01:27:22 You know, Shrikant, in terms of spotting trades and trends, I think the Prime Minister with the tweet has made the renewable energy space very excited this morning.
01:27:31 While railways might have potentially run ahead of themselves, that's a debate we can have.
01:27:37 What are you making of some of these renewable names?
01:27:39 I know Neeraj chatted with you about a few, but I want to pick up on SJVN and Borosil Renewable.
01:27:44 Borosil in the last six months has been a gross underperformer.
01:27:47 When I say underperform, it's not done as well as some of its other broader market names.
01:27:51 15% in the last six months of that 13% gains this morning.
01:27:55 On the charts, Borosil Renewable and SJVN, if you can comment on that one too.
01:28:01 I think, like most of the time while trading in the market, what we use is buy on rumours, sell on news.
01:28:09 So after the specific news, we may see some profit taking because now there is like a gap of opening and most of the stocks are very close to the resistance level.
01:28:17 So with a very short term view, one should be very careful because now the news is out and stocks are coming down after hitting their resistance level.
01:28:26 Like Borosil New touched the high of 600 now it is at 570, 565 and for SJVN also.
01:28:33 So there like we need to be careful because now the news is out.
01:28:36 But yes, if there is a medium to long term view, then certainly we should focus on stocks like Borosil New because the stock is still consolidating
01:28:44 and having potential of at least 20-25% return in next maybe few months of time.
01:28:50 SJVN is also forming higher top, higher bottom sort of formation.
01:28:54 We also like SW Solar, which is into upper circuit.
01:28:58 But if there is any correction, then I think we should look for adding this stock to our positional portfolios.
01:29:04 Right. Some of the big losers at this time, Chennai Petro, MRPL, Oberoi Reality on the back of numbers.
01:29:11 IDFC first again on the back of numbers. VST as well down this morning.
01:29:17 Shikant, I just want a quick word from you on Persistent and Coforge.
01:29:21 Both numbers have come in over the weekend.
01:29:25 How would you look at them? Persistent doing pretty, pretty well on the back of numbers and Coforge now in the positive.
01:29:32 Yeah, for Persistent also based on technicals, it is forming every time reversal formation after hitting the important supports.
01:29:41 Most of the time, stock comes under some profit taking pressure, but after consolidating, it is going up.
01:29:46 And now after this specific news flow on the split side as well as the numbers, which are like better than the expectation,
01:29:53 I think now the strategy should be to buy if there is any correction and the support levels exist at 7800-7700 levels.
01:30:01 So if we see any correction in the next few days of time, certainly we should be aware.
01:30:05 But at current levels, it is better to avoid because the stock is completely overbought.
01:30:10 It is better to buy if there is any correction. For Coforge, there also we feel that the broader formation is good.
01:30:17 But at the same time, it is very close to its long term resistance levels of 6600.
01:30:23 So close to maybe 6000 levels. We should look for adding positions.
01:30:27 But at this level, it is better to stay. Right. Thank you, Shrikant. Great having you this morning.
01:30:32 I just want to quickly mention a whole bunch of other stocks beyond ICICI Bank, Coforge, Persistent that are in focus this morning.
01:30:39 J&K Bank is up 8% on strong earnings. Karur Vaishya Bank is up 6% again on solid numbers.
01:30:46 Jensol is up 5%. Cipla is up 6%. IFL Securities is up 2.5%. Lloyds is up a percent and a half.
01:30:55 Chennai Petro is seeing a huge cut at 10% downtake on earnings. MRPL is down 7%. IDFC is down 3% and VST is down 2%.
01:31:05 So, all these stocks that I have highlighted for you are simply a result reaction to earnings that were released over the weekend.
01:31:12 We will take a break. We will put the focus on Zenzire. Manish Shatt, MD&C of Zenzire Technology joins in to talk to us about how the quarter was.
01:31:19 Thank you.

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