Alex Bristow, from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, explains the impact of Nauru's split with Taiwan on the Indo-Pacific region.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00 Nauru is severing ties with Taiwan, switching diplomatic allegiance to China.
00:05 What are the strategic implications for the Indo-Pacific?
00:08 I think the first strategic implications are for Taiwan itself.
00:13 It's obviously going to be further isolated from the international community with a diminishing
00:18 number of countries that continue to recognise it.
00:21 Now countries like Australia, which recognise Beijing, they will say that they will do what
00:26 they can to allow Taiwan to participate in international affairs.
00:29 But it is still important, I think, that at least some countries recognise Taipei and
00:34 that's an increasingly smaller number.
00:36 There are also implications for the character of the Pacific.
00:40 There is now one fewer country in the Pacific Island Forum that recognises Taiwan.
00:46 That's been a number that's been going down over the last few years.
00:49 So there's now only three countries left, Tuvalu and Marshall Islands and Palau.
00:54 Both of those last two have very close relations with the US that continue to recognise Taiwan.
01:00 Australia and Nauru have a close relationship.
01:03 How is Australia expected to respond?
01:06 So they've already responded.
01:08 The Minister for the Pacific, Pat Conroy, has been talking to the media and has said
01:12 that it wasn't a surprise that this happened.
01:15 He indicated that Australia had some prior knowledge that this would happen.
01:19 But fundamentally, Pat Conroy has said that the Australian government respects the sovereign
01:22 decision of Nauru to conduct its diplomatic relations as it chooses.
01:28 Australia itself has, of course, recognised Beijing since 1972, so it can't really dictate
01:32 to others not to do so.
01:34 Fundamentally, Australia will say that they'll continue their partnership with all the countries
01:38 of the Pacific on the basis of respecting their sovereignty and making an offer that
01:44 is in those countries' interests, which includes being the preferred security partner for the region.
01:51 Moving forward from here, do you see China gaining more allies or influence in the Indo-Pacific region?
01:56 I think they will try, definitely.
01:59 I think there'll be sustained pressure on the few remaining countries in the region
02:04 that recognise Taiwan.
02:05 If I were to put my finger in the air, I would say that Palau is perhaps the one where China
02:09 has the most hooks at the moment, where it could potentially increase pressure to try
02:13 to get them to flip.
02:15 So it's one of many forms of pressure that Beijing could apply to Taiwan.
02:19 We saw many of the other forms of pressure around Nancy Pelosi's visit, including in
02:23 the economic sphere, military exercise, all sorts of forms of grey zone activities.
02:27 I think it's important that Australia and other countries that respect rules and respect
02:32 the stability of the Taiwan Strait to say that those sorts of behaviours aren't appropriate
02:37 or acceptable from Beijing, and to do what can be done to support Taiwan in maintaining
02:43 its resilience without necessarily, obviously, taking any formal position about the future
02:49 status of Taiwan.
02:50 [BLANK_AUDIO]