- Why are multi-asset allocation funds in vogue now?
- How can you make sure you gold gives you double digit returns?
Tamanna Inamdar speaks to Sundaram Mutual Fund's management on ' The Portfolio Manager'. #NDTVProfitLive
- How can you make sure you gold gives you double digit returns?
Tamanna Inamdar speaks to Sundaram Mutual Fund's management on ' The Portfolio Manager'. #NDTVProfitLive
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TVTranscript
00:00:00 What makes this one different or what is the purpose or focus of this one?
00:00:04 To speak more on it I'm joined now by Mr. Sunil Subramaniam. He is Managing Director of Sundaram
00:00:10 Mutual. That's the AMC of course that is launching the fund. Mr. Subramaniam,
00:00:15 thank you so much for joining us and welcome to NDTV Prophet. Great to have you here.
00:00:19 Hi, great to be here back on NDTV Prophet.
00:00:25 All right, let's begin and get straight to it. Let's start by talking about this particular
00:00:30 multi-asset allocation fund. Why a multi-asset allocation fund and why at this point when
00:00:37 equities have performed phenomenally well, do you think they will continue to do so or is this you
00:00:44 looking at sort of risks increasing in the year to come?
00:00:52 So I think first of all this is an all-weather fund. So it's not that the timing at this
00:00:57 particular time makes a difference and I'll explain that in the next few minutes. So it's
00:01:00 an all-weather fund. Why this launch at this time and you've seen many other AMCs launch is because
00:01:07 in the finance bill last year the taxation for commodity, ETS and debts was indexation benefit
00:01:13 was effectively removed. So any investor looking to hedge his equity risk with either debt or
00:01:20 commodities could not do that in a tax efficient way. So multi-asset allocation funds which can
00:01:26 give you either debt-based taxation or equity-based taxation depending on the structure
00:01:30 started getting popular with investors and with distributors. So what Sundaram is planning to do
00:01:36 is to launch an equity-oriented fund which means that even within the multi-asset fund we would
00:01:40 have 65% in equities at all times. So thereby we impart the benefit of equity taxation. The second
00:01:46 is that though the name is multi-asset allocation we propose to make it as a fixed asset allocation
00:01:51 wherein we will keep the fixed income piece at 10% at all times. The reason for that is there
00:01:55 are enough options available through aggressive hybrids, balanced advantage funds where debt as
00:02:01 a component to hedge the risk are available. But what our fund seeks to do is within the
00:02:07 commodity space to maximize it and within commodities we have chosen to specifically
00:02:12 use only gold. At no time in this fund we will have any other commodity other than gold.
00:02:17 Now that's a very clear cut demarcation from all other multi-asset allocation funds because they
00:02:22 tend to look at it saying we will choose the commodity based on our view including overseas
00:02:27 securities. We are not saying anything like that. We are saying our focus is clearly on gold. Now
00:02:32 what is the logic of this gold and we will keep gold at the maximum permitted 25% at all times.
00:02:37 So these two significant decisions make our fund very different and the logic comes from a very,
00:02:42 very simple fact that gold is the long-term shock absorber for portfolios because not only does it
00:02:50 perform well when equity doesn't, it tends to actually deliver very good returns when equity
00:02:55 is having negative returns. Now debt generally varies between 6 to 8. So if you have shocks in
00:03:00 the market equity gives you negative, debt at least gives you 6 to 8. But with gold it very
00:03:05 often gives you double digit returns when equity is correcting. That's one aspect. The second aspect
00:03:10 being an Indian investing in gold you get the benefit of currency depreciation because over a
00:03:15 long time 3 to 4% is the average currency depreciation and gold inherently carries that.
00:03:20 So if you look at the rolling returns of gold as a standalone asset class through the MCX Gold
00:03:24 Price Index over the last 18 years gold has delivered an average of somewhere between 11% to
00:03:29 12% annualized as a return to the investor. So clearly compared to debt and arbitrage if you
00:03:35 hold for the long term there is an additional value of returns that gold in the past has delivered.
00:03:40 We know that past performance cannot be predictive of the future but since we use the rolling
00:03:44 returns mythology to arrive at this we feel that it's fairly consistent in terms of its approach.
00:03:50 So I think that's what differentiates this fund and it's not that it's being launched because we
00:03:54 feel equities are overvalued. We believe given the inherent nature of gold to do well when equity
00:03:59 doesn't, every equity investor in India should have gold in his portfolio. And with the two that
00:04:04 was possible through gold ETFs directly by investors but with the indexation benefit going
00:04:09 away multi-assets with gold is the best way for an equity investor to participate in the market at
00:04:16 all times regardless whether equity is doing well or not. Sure. Just and I know you can't give any
00:04:22 predictive absolute return figures or estimates that is not permitted but if you can give us a
00:04:29 ballpark sense of how you expect this fund to perform that's part one and second part is fixed
00:04:35 income at 10 percent. Is that a good idea in a year where you're going to definitely see interest
00:04:41 rates coming down? The only question is when? Okay. So let me answer the first one. So in terms
00:04:51 of you know we all do back testing we launch new fund offers. So our benchmark index right is 65
00:04:58 nifty 500 index, 25 percent the MCX gold price or the gold ETFs and 10 percent is the nifty short
00:05:05 duration bond index. If you take the performance of this index as a back testing over the last
00:05:10 dozen or so years I think the fund has delivered roughly about anywhere between 8, 9, 10 percent
00:05:18 on a post tax basis you will make that as at least better than fixed deposit because you get 10
00:05:24 percent equity taxation right but there are times when the fund outperforms there are times when
00:05:30 equity doesn't do well gold does well and there are times when equity and gold both do well. So
00:05:35 in that sense you know it's a good asset class to mix and if you see point to point returns over the
00:05:40 last one year it's been 17 percent. I know again that past performance should not be predicted but
00:05:45 last year has been a good year both for gold and for equity. So such events also do happen in the
00:05:50 journey and remember that an economy goes through business cycles and when there is recovery and
00:05:55 expansion equities does well when there's contraction debt does well but when there is a
00:05:59 slowdown it's gold that does the best. And to answer your second question on in a year is this
00:06:04 a good time to keep debt only at 10 like I said for investors if they feel that is a good asset
00:06:09 class there are enough products available in the market through which they can pay. There are
00:06:12 aggressive hybrids which are 70 percent equity 30 percent debt there are equity savings which have
00:06:16 a little more than 30 for 35 percent in near debt but that being said I'd like to speak about this
00:06:23 expected interest rate reduction. So I have a slightly contrarian view on this. I think during
00:06:28 the current year I do not expect a significant rate cut from the Reserve Bank in domestic terms.
00:06:33 It is the Fed which is going through a massive rate cut drive but remember when the Fed hike
00:06:38 rates by 550 basis points RBI raised it only by 250 basis points. So until Fed cuts it down by
00:06:44 300 basis points there is no pressure on RBI and look at the domestic scenario growth is not
00:06:48 suffering so you don't need rate cuts to support growth. Inflation is unlikely to drop below four
00:06:53 given how you know prices are there of food and oil. So as long as it remains above 4 RBI really
00:06:59 can't cut rates. So I don't see a scenario during the current year of a big rate cut in the domestic
00:07:05 scenario. So from my point of view for a domestic investor right I'm not sure that this is a good
00:07:10 year for debt unless you are looking only at an accrual kind of return. I think equities is poised
00:07:15 to do well and gold also I believe given the international slowdown, the expectation of a
00:07:20 rate cut by the Fed and the fact that countries like Russia, Saudi Arabia, China in addition to
00:07:25 India are shifting their exposure away from the dollar and gold is a natural safe haven for them
00:07:30 to park their monies. So I do think it's a sweet spot for both equities and gold in the coming year
00:07:35 and not necessarily that for debt. Okay now let me just come to the equity part because it's 65%
00:07:41 of your portfolio up to 65% of your portfolio is going to be in equities and as I understand it
00:07:48 the focus is going to be more on large caps. Now I know that's the theme that large caps are the
00:07:54 ones that are going to fire this year but having said that the phenomenal increase in mid caps and
00:07:59 small caps don't seem to have ended yet. Can you explain the rationale behind that?
00:08:03 Yeah, absolutely. So what's happening is that the last six months or so you had periods in
00:08:12 September, October when FIIs pulled out money from India and then from November onwards they
00:08:17 slowly came in and December they came in a big bang way. So because FII participation has not
00:08:22 been generally great except for the month of December, domestic flows have tended to be
00:08:26 diversified and there has been a buying by domestic fund managers has dominated the equity markets
00:08:31 thanks to the strong growing SIP book and domestic flows and hence allocation by domestic fund
00:08:37 managers has been focused on domestic oriented stocks and sectors and hence you've seen small
00:08:42 and mid caps rally tremendously. From December onwards with the clarity from the December 3rd
00:08:47 state election results that the likelihood of the NDA government coming back to power
00:08:51 offering a policy continuity for five plus years for a foreign investor there's a significant
00:08:57 change in outlook and approach towards India. This is strengthened by the fact that oil,
00:09:01 thanks to the US lifting sanctions on Venezuela and Iran pumping more oil to finance the war with
00:09:07 Israel through Hamas, you are seeing oil in flooded supply so oil is also expected to be
00:09:12 stable. One of the biggest factors for FIIs to invest in India is a stable or a declining oil
00:09:17 regime. With those these factors positive I do expect strong increase in FII flows at least till
00:09:23 the election. So given that I expect large caps to actually outperform mid and small caps. Now
00:09:28 that being said doesn't mean that I mean small and mid caps are going through correction because
00:09:32 as much as 30 percent of your 17,000 crore SIP book is in small cap and mid cap funds another
00:09:37 30 percent is a multi-cap so roughly half of the SIP book is actually coming and helping domestic
00:09:42 fund managers buy small caps and mid caps. So while large caps might be rallying because of the FIIs
00:09:47 domestic fund managers have enough fuel and ammunition through SIP book to support the
00:09:51 mid and small caps. So I believe that the tilt is that large caps will do better it doesn't mean
00:09:57 small and mid caps are going to cover so I think a multi-cap portfolio tilted towards large cap
00:10:01 is the best allocation option and incidentally our fund is also proposing to be sanctified to
00:10:06 80 percent in large caps within equities and it will use 20 to 25 percent of mid caps tactically
00:10:12 and strategically to allocate to enhance returns to the investor. So I think this is a good long
00:10:16 term strategy to adopt given that multi-asset allocation funds are a part of the hybrid category
00:10:22 targeting moderate investors who want long-term inflation beating and fixed income beating returns
00:10:28 with low risk and I think that's the key part that we've got to bear in mind I can't afford to load
00:10:33 mid and small caps in this fund which is in the hybrid category right I've got to bear in mind
00:10:37 what the kind of customer who's going to invest in this fund and I think playing the middle ground
00:10:42 is the best for this fund. Okay so it's a lower it's for those with a low risk appetite just a
00:10:46 quick point of clarification so no exposure here to REITs, INVITs or overseas equities?
00:10:53 You're right absolutely zero exposure to either of those all of those asset classes. Okay just
00:11:02 one point of view of the plethora of funds of this nature available in the market and you
00:11:09 addressed it briefly saying that this is what stands out but it is a bit of more of the same
00:11:14 isn't it why should an investor choose your fund over many that are available? Yeah
00:11:22 so I think that see the general multi-asset allocation funds tend to tell the investor
00:11:30 trust me I know when to put in equity when to put in fixed income when to put in gold
00:11:37 when to put in silver when to put in other commodities and leave that to me to balance
00:11:42 it to manage it best for you we are at the opposite of the spectrum we are saying we are
00:11:46 putting it only in gold you know that there's going to be 25 percent gold so you take the call
00:11:51 as an investor as a distributor you take the call how much gold do I want in my portfolio right and
00:11:57 I've already clearly laid out why we believe gold is the best commodity because it's inflation
00:12:01 protected it's recession proof it's a currency depreciation positive so and hence and it's a low
00:12:08 negative correlation with equities so we are saying we are giving you this product it's a
00:12:13 very vis-a-vis product what you see is what you get there's no confusion so if you feel gold is
00:12:18 going to rise allocate more to my fund if you feel gold is going to fall you can take out money from
00:12:23 your fund so to that extent we have actually said that up to 30 percent of the corpus investors can
00:12:28 withdraw without exit load so we are making it very clear and free that from our side we are a
00:12:33 manufacturer who is going to allocate a fixed asset allocation you take the call but it's going to be
00:12:39 moderate risk because gold is negatively correlated with equity and hence it dampens down the
00:12:44 fluctuations of equity but still gives you a healthy tax efficient return to the moderate
00:12:51 investor all right so the USP is gold all right thank you so much Mr Subramanian for speaking
00:12:56 with us and joining us on the mutual fund show and that was Sunil Subramanian explaining the
00:13:03 rationale of this new fund we're going to take a very short break but on the other side we will
00:13:07 get in an analyst to understand whether this fund and others in the category are the best choice for
00:13:14 you stay tuned
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00:19:51 I think that would be a right choice for many many traditional investors.
00:19:56 Okay so just a couple of follow-ups there, Amol. First on the Sundaram Fund because we featured the Sundaram's you know the new offering, which is why I think we should have an analysis on that specific one.
00:20:09 What differentiates it from others in that same space because there were I think some 15 launches in this category last year itself?
00:20:18 Sure. What differentiates is its bet on gold and it has a relatively higher allocation for gold.
00:20:26 Are you comfortable with that? Do you think that's a good idea considering where the cycle is?
00:20:31 And secondly, you're speaking about a conservative investor here at a time when investors have displayed their willingness to increase their risks and their appetite for higher returns.
00:20:45 That's true. Both of those are valid points. So first things first, I would say if you truly ask us how we build portfolio at PlanRupi Investment Services,
00:20:54 typically we are comfortable with 10% to 15% asset allocation within the overall basket.
00:21:00 Now Sundaram has taken this call based on their internal research, maybe some back testing of going a whole hog close to 25% gold.
00:21:09 If you ask me that it's slightly over and above what we will be comfortable with. So that's my quick comment on the gold component.
00:21:17 Coming to the second point, you are again absolutely right. Mutual fund SIPs, you make a point that investors have displayed their risk appetite or appetite to allocate additional assets toward risk.
00:21:28 But you have to look at it from overall perspective as a total wallet share of the investor.
00:21:34 The point that I made earlier, fixed deposit size itself is 200 lakh crore. Out of 50 lakh crore mutual fund industry also, you have about 12 lakh crore in pure debt instruments.
00:21:45 And another portion, about 20% is in hybrid funds. Within hybrid funds also you have debt component going in.
00:21:51 So investors are very, very, you know, investors make their choice very, very clearly.
00:21:56 Sunil previously also mentioned a point that out of the SIP folios, SIP inflows, about 30-35% of inflows are going into high risk.
00:22:05 Wherever investor wants to take that higher risk, investor typically chooses mid cap, small cap or multi cap funds.
00:22:11 But there is another class of investor or within the same investor, there is a certain percentage of wallet share where investor wants safe, slightly higher than FD returns with a tax efficient nature.
00:22:23 And that's where multi asset funds scores very well.
00:22:26 So for investors looking to rebalance their portfolios for this year, and I just want to put that in the context of SIP figures and overall mutual fund figures,
00:22:38 allocation figures which came in for the month of December, new highs there, new records broken.
00:22:44 Even your SIP figures were at all time highs, over 17,000 crores once again, second time in a row.
00:22:50 Do you think this is a category they should be looking at when you're reviewing your portfolio for 2024?
00:22:59 And if yes, how much of your entire investment should be in multi asset funds?
00:23:06 Right, I would have been very happy if I had a fixed answer to say that you should have 25 or 40% of your portfolio in multi asset funds.
00:23:15 But certainly that's not how we look at things.
00:23:18 What we typically do is we start, we take very by the book kind of an approach.
00:23:23 Once you arrive at your own risk appetite, then you gel it with the kind of investment horizon that you have,
00:23:29 whether you're accumulating money for next five years, 10 years or something like retirement, that is 20 years down the line.
00:23:34 And once you make a portfolio, you actually choose the schemes and stay with them for one full market cycle.
00:23:41 It could be three years, it could be five years.
00:23:43 Now, if you take example of last three years, equity, large cap index, Nifty, Nifty Next 50, SIPs, as well as point to point returns are in excess of 16 to 17%.
00:23:52 Now, that would certainly skew your asset allocation.
00:23:55 Now, let's forget gold for a moment because you are looking at investors portfolio and not a scheme.
00:24:01 Let's say you started with a 60/40 kind of an asset allocation.
00:24:04 Now, within last three years, you also had debt funds delivering slightly suboptimal returns simply because the duration,
00:24:12 the duration funds typically because interest rates were going up.
00:24:14 In that case, your asset allocation instead of 60/40 would probably now look like more like 80 or 20 because your equity component has gone up.
00:24:23 What we suggest investors, which is tax efficient also, you need not tinker with your asset allocation every week, every month, every quarter.
00:24:31 Look at it once in a year.
00:24:33 And if your asset allocation has really gone out of sync, then you rebalance the out of sync portfolio.
00:24:39 So going by this hypothetical example that I gave you just now, probably 20% of equity allocation needs to be cut down.
00:24:45 Now, when you cut down that equity allocation, you have choice of going to hybrid or asset allocation funds,
00:24:51 multi-asset being one part of hybrid funds, or you have to go to pure debt.
00:24:55 Now, if you are also bullish on India story, also bullish on equity market, continuing their momentum,
00:25:02 then I would say you have a choice of making probably 5 to 10% into pure debt and another 10 to 15% going into hybrid funds.
00:25:10 If somebody were to put a gun to my head, I would say about 30% of your portfolio can be, your total portfolio can be in multi-asset funds.
00:25:18 All right. So multi-asset funds definitely should be in your portfolio.
00:25:22 No gun to your head, but 30% is a fair figure.
00:25:26 Obviously, you have to tailor this individually to your needs.
00:25:29 Thank you so much, Amul, for joining us on the show.
00:25:32 And thank you to all of our viewers who've come in today and tuned in to the Mutual Fund Show.
00:25:37 We'll take a very short break, but stay tuned. A lot more coming up on the other side on NDTV Profit.
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