A look at matchups between positional groups and analysis of key statistics in the Week 18 game between the Bears and Packers at Green Bay.
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00:00 The end of a long and roller coaster season is at hand for the Bears and the future looks
00:13 to be even wilder considering no one knows the fate of Justin Fields, also they own the
00:18 first pick of the draft.
00:21 First things first though and they finish the 2023 season against their arch rivals,
00:27 the team that they started this season with, the Green Bay Packers.
00:31 But in this one they can prevent the Packers from making the playoffs, a little bit of
00:35 payback for 9 straight losses to Green Bay.
00:38 The Bears and Packers Sunday at Lambeau Field at 325pm, here's who wins and why.
00:44 The Bears should have an advantage running the ball against the Packers defense, however
00:48 that's deceiving.
00:49 First watch that injury report, if Justin Herbert's back injury keeps him out or bothers
00:55 him, you wonder if Dante Foreman can help after 3 weeks away inactive or hurt.
01:01 Either way Justin Fields would be asked to run it more than they probably want against
01:06 the league's 28th ranked defense.
01:08 But let's not get carried away with that ranking, the Packers have held their last 3 opponents
01:12 below 100 rushing yards.
01:15 I also have to give the Bears a slight edge in special teams.
01:18 Sure the Packers have kick returner Keshon Nixon but Bayless Jones Jr. actually averages
01:24 more than him this year on kick returns, Trent Taylor averages more than the Packer punt
01:28 returners and Kyro Santos' 91.4% field goals are 8% better than Andres Carlson.
01:39 There's no edge when the Packers try to run against the Bears front.
01:42 Sure they've got Aaron Jones and he's healthy now, he's had 2 straight 100 yard games, but
01:47 he's running against the top run defense in the league.
01:51 It's not coming as easy for teams against the Bears in the running game and it won't
01:54 for the Packers.
01:55 They also don't have AJ Dillon in this one, so their 1-2 punch that they threw at the
02:00 Bears in the past is not there.
02:03 Also there's no edge for coaching.
02:05 Matt Iberflues has proven himself over the course of this season and sure Matt LaFleur
02:09 is extremely effective in December and January based on his history, but I can remember one
02:15 game he didn't win this late in the year and he really needed to.
02:19 This is a similar circumstance.
02:22 Or can I give an edge to Jordan Love in his passing game?
02:25 It's just a wash.
02:27 You can look at the Bears overall numbers and say this is wrong, but since week 5 the
02:31 Bears are 3rd in passing rating against and the Montez Sweat Effect has upped their pressures
02:36 by 25% since his arrival.
02:39 They lead the NFL in interceptions, so it's not the same pass defense Jordan Love faced
02:45 in week 1.
02:46 I can give the Packers an edge when their pass defense faces Justin Fields, their 11th
02:50 against the pass.
02:51 Again, like with the Bears running game, there are injury concerns here for the Packers and
02:56 also more importantly, they haven't been playing good lately.
03:00 They gave up 381 yards to Baker Mayfield through the air, 312 to Bryce Young.
03:06 So it's a shaky Green Bay advantage there.
03:09 They do get the home field advantage more for intangibles.
03:12 They have more to play for than the Bears.
03:16 But that can work two different ways.
03:18 Who takes it as it looks fairly even?
03:20 Well, I'm sorry, but while the Bears have advanced greatly, especially on defense, the
03:25 one decisive factor that no one talks about is their red zone defense.
03:30 They're last in the league.
03:32 They're allowing touchdowns at a rate of 70.7%.
03:37 This is awful.
03:38 The Packers aren't the greatest in the red zone, but they're not anywhere near that bad.
03:42 It's situational football where this one gets decided.
03:45 Call it Packers 19, Bears 17.
03:48 [MUSIC]