Kabi-kabilang isyu at problema ang hinarap ng ating bansa noong nakaraang taon. Pero kasabay ng mga hamong ito, ang iba’t ibang reporma, programa at mga batas na inilunsad ng ating gobyerno.
Ngayong bagong taon, ang mga programang dapat tutukan ng kasalukuyang administrasyon, hihimayin ng Political Analyst na si Prof. Julio Teehankee sa #TheMangahasInterviews.
Ngayong bagong taon, ang mga programang dapat tutukan ng kasalukuyang administrasyon, hihimayin ng Political Analyst na si Prof. Julio Teehankee sa #TheMangahasInterviews.
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NewsTranscript
00:00:00 [Music]
00:00:05 Good day to all of you and happy new year for the Philippines.
00:00:13 I hope we will have better days ahead.
00:00:16 In the past year, many reforms and programs were launched.
00:00:21 Now in 2024, what issues should be addressed by President Bombo Marcos,
00:00:26 Vice President Sara Duterte, and other leaders in politics?
00:00:31 We will discuss this with Professor July T. Hanke of De La Salle University.
00:00:36 Here in Damangahas Interviews, Professor July is a full professor
00:00:42 and Research Fellow of Political Science and International Studies
00:00:46 of De La Salle University, Manila.
00:00:50 Champion in UAAP, but Professor July is also a champion
00:00:53 in discussing various issues.
00:00:56 He has a lot of research on elections, political plans,
00:01:02 comparative politics of other countries, Philippines, and Southeast Asia.
00:01:07 Good day, Professor July!
00:01:09 Good day, Malu. Happy New Year.
00:01:13 Thank you for inviting me again to your amazing show.
00:01:19 Thank you very much, Professor July.
00:01:21 Let's sum up. What are the good, better, best things that happened in 2023?
00:01:27 What do you think are the top line issues?
00:01:30 Very good. What are the other needs improvement?
00:01:33 Yes. Before we talk about the new year of 2024,
00:01:37 let's go back to the end of 2023.
00:01:40 The year 2023 is what we call the year of breakups.
00:01:46 In the last month of 2023, we witnessed the separation of celebrities
00:01:53 who were chosen by the people for decades, even years.
00:01:57 But in the field of politics, it seems that the strong alliance of UNITIN ended early.
00:02:05 Most people thought that the strong victory of the Tambalang Bongbong Marcos
00:02:11 and Sara Duterte was the end of the so-called EDSA regime or Rehiming EDSA in 1986.
00:02:20 And the rise of unity towards a new Philippines continued.
00:02:27 But it seems that there are internal or external forces,
00:02:31 personal and political interests that pushed for the strong alliance of UNITIN.
00:02:39 So this is one of the bad things that happened in the past.
00:02:46 Bad for the field of politics.
00:02:49 But this also shows the bad in the system of our politics.
00:02:55 This is the weakness of our politics and state.
00:03:00 Because we know that our politics is based on personality, money, and family.
00:03:07 So even if the Tambalang Marcos and Duterte is very strong,
00:03:11 the narrative of this unity is only the unity of personalities and political dynasties.
00:03:20 Because the government has no platform to face the public.
00:03:25 And the two candidates are not actively involved in debates.
00:03:31 So the alliance is fragile.
00:03:34 There are promises that were given but were not fulfilled.
00:03:39 They fought and were defeated.
00:03:42 And now this alliance is not lasting.
00:03:46 Alright. Is this separation too early?
00:03:50 And what do you think are the issues?
00:03:53 In the election, they agreed to win.
00:03:56 In the poderna, the relations were divided because of what issues?
00:04:01 If we look at the course of our politics after 1986,
00:04:07 because of our multi-party system, coalition politics became popular.
00:04:17 So since 1992, in our country, this was formed through coalition.
00:04:28 Because this was replaced by our two-party system.
00:04:32 Most of the time, politicians jump to the party of the president.
00:04:36 And the party of the president is forming an alliance or coalition with other parties to control the Congress.
00:04:46 Now what happened is that it's really fragile.
00:04:50 In the midterms, it becomes stronger and everyone jumps to the party of the president or forms an alliance.
00:04:58 But then it becomes fragile when it comes to preparing for the next presidential election.
00:05:04 So what we can notice in our politics now is that it seems too early.
00:05:11 Because now, the unity is still in the consolidation stage.
00:05:17 And it seems that their words are too early.
00:05:21 Maybe because of the promises that were given but were not fulfilled,
00:05:26 the expected rewards because it's a replacement of helping in winning our president.
00:05:34 And this alliance started from the early morning when there will be a new movement to make Ken,
00:05:47 the speaker who was elected by the president, to Speaker Martin Romualdez,
00:05:52 who was invited to the alliance of the former president of the GMA and Vice President Sara.
00:06:01 So this alliance grew until it was joined by the DDS team and the DBM team, especially in social media.
00:06:12 And this is due to the controversial issue of the Confidential Intelligence Fund that became Achilles' heel of Vice President Sara.
00:06:26 We know all of this that happened but what the Macedonians did not expect in our politics
00:06:37 is that there are slowly becoming policy differences in these two fields.
00:06:44 And this is where we should focus.
00:06:47 From the questioning of the Confidential Intelligence Fund by the Duterte, not only by VP Sara,
00:06:57 but also the Duterte during their time in Davao City, until the release of former Senator Laila de Lima,
00:07:07 we know that the former president fought with her, the possibility of the investigation of the ICC and the resume,
00:07:16 this is not what was expected, the peace talks.
00:07:19 So the political fight started as a political personal fight,
00:07:25 and it became fundamental policy differences between the Marcos and Duterte camps.
00:07:31 There is also a geopolitical dimension because the former president Duterte is of course close to China
00:07:43 and the former president BBM is slowly returning and strengthening our alliance with the United States and other allies.
00:07:56 Professor Julay, are these their public statements, press releases?
00:08:03 There are no fights, these are just intrigues.
00:08:06 In truth, it seems like there are really issues that are not in agreement, policy issues that are not in agreement.
00:08:13 But is there still hope for reconciliation?
00:08:17 What do you think?
00:08:18 Because when the 2025 elections come, of course, many may win,
00:08:23 but the government, mayors and congressmen, are these considered allies and will there be reconciliation?
00:08:30 Okay. You know in politics, this is like poker.
00:08:38 There are political bluffs that are being played and they are looking at how the other party will react.
00:08:48 Others say that politics is like chess, strategic. But for me, politics in the Philippines is like poker.
00:08:56 It's a game of surprise. Sometimes you have a card, you hide it,
00:09:01 your card is weak but you seem to be strong.
00:09:04 So what's happening here is that all the allies are now on the side of the Marcos,
00:09:13 especially in the camp of BBM because he is the incumbent.
00:09:17 He has an incumbency advantage.
00:09:21 But in the Philippines, politics is the art of the possible.
00:09:27 So what we don't expect, the last three presidential election cycles,
00:09:36 these are what we call black swan events.
00:09:39 No one expected Pinoy to win in 2010, no one expected Digong to win in 2016.
00:09:48 Who would have thought that the Marcos would come back in 2022.
00:09:52 So anything is possible in our politics.
00:09:57 One of the things that is floating around now, that politicians are preparing for the 2025 midterm elections,
00:10:06 is that there might be a new unity formed.
00:10:10 In the end, the Duterte will be outside the kulampu.
00:10:16 The former allies of the Marcos, even some of the personalities identified with the Yellows and the Pinks,
00:10:25 might even build a coalition or form a coalition with the President's party.
00:10:33 Okay. It's like some people's observation that the new allies or networks are counting on President BBM.
00:10:41 But this one, it seems like he's facing Speaker Martin Romualdez.
00:10:46 Tell us, what is the relationship of Speaker Martin?
00:10:50 Is he the one who dreams of becoming Prime Minister because the House also has the Chacha Initiative?
00:10:57 How does it all play? Is he the frontliner?
00:11:00 Of course, all administrations are in charge of those kinds of operations.
00:11:12 So there are political operators, major lieutenants of the President when it comes to collecting political favors.
00:11:29 And dispensing political favors to the lawmakers and local politicians.
00:11:36 And Speaker Martin Romualdez is trusted by the President because he's his cousin.
00:11:45 So we cannot say that Speaker Romualdez's move was not informed by the President.
00:11:56 By the fact that they are cousins, that's a big thing.
00:12:05 And he's one of the President's trusted lieutenants.
00:12:09 Although, Senator Aimee is a cousin of the President, she's a ally of the Duterte.
00:12:18 And she said that her loyalty, while she's a cousin of the President, she's also looking after her debt to the Duterte.
00:12:27 And she's one of the key players in the victory of the Duterte in 2016.
00:12:32 It seems like the people here are confused. They are fighting, there are policy differences.
00:12:39 But honestly, what will be the result of this if ever, because for the people, there are issues that are not solved.
00:12:48 Those are the issues that will not be solved by the so-called charter change or charter initiative of the House.
00:12:54 That for now, it seems like it will be a mess, but the Senate doesn't want it.
00:12:58 What is the reason behind that? Is this charter change challenge true?
00:13:02 Well, regarding the charter change, this is being pushed and moved to change the legal system.
00:13:13 This is just a repetition.
00:13:15 This is after President BBM said that there are more important issues that the government should face.
00:13:26 That's why in the beginning, you remember, the first thing that was pushed to the lower courts was the revival of the charter change, the CHACHA.
00:13:35 President BBM said that there are more problems and we should not waste our time on that.
00:13:42 It's surprising because like me, I thought, imagine that Mark was defending the Aquino Constitution.
00:13:52 Although of course, other people we are with are saying that it's not the Aquino Constitution, but the 1987 Constitution.
00:13:59 But that's how it is. He's defending the same infrastructure, political architecture that Aquino built through the 1987 Constitution.
00:14:12 It seems like the issue is over until it's being pushed again.
00:14:20 In my opinion, the interest of the Speaker and indirectly of our President is to remove the restrictive economic provisions of the Constitution.
00:14:33 The bias of Speaker Romualdez and the President is the economy.
00:14:38 They want to strengthen it. In their opinion, that's one of the reasons, of course, it's a forgotten debate, the nationalist provision and protection.
00:14:51 But in my opinion, that's the objective.
00:14:54 On the other hand, there are also those who support political and electoral reforms, like my former colleagues in the Consultative Commission led by President Guterres.
00:15:09 There are also those who want to remove the progressive provisions of the Constitution, like the term limit and the anti-political dynasty provision.
00:15:24 There are those who want to support because of their own political interests.
00:15:31 But the Charter Change has not been successful for a while since the time of FDR, GMA and Duterte.
00:15:41 This is because of the so-called constitutional trauma.
00:15:45 We are in trauma because when President Ferdinand Marcos Sr. changed the 1935 Constitution, it was due to the extension of his power and position.
00:16:00 This is what is called in Latin America, this is also happening, the Constitution is being changed to extend the term of the President.
00:16:10 This is called continuism. Since then, this is like a suspect project when Chacha is talking about it.
00:16:20 If we look at all the SWS and False Asia surveys, there is a question about the process and trust of those who are supporting the change.
00:16:35 Because the support to Chacha is top-down, like the realities of constitutional making.
00:16:44 What is needed here is deliberative from the bottom up, to start from the grassroots.
00:16:50 The movement, because there are many things that should be changed in our Constitution.
00:16:57 For example, I want to regulate the political dynasty before we go to federalism.
00:17:03 I want to strengthen the political parties and our bureaucracy before we go to parliamentarism.
00:17:10 I believe that the parliament and federal system are good.
00:17:14 So if we look at the other election that will happen next year, the BARMM election, this is the experiment.
00:17:22 Correct.
00:17:23 How and what will be the fate of the Philippines if we will imitate the experiments in BARMM.
00:17:33 In BARMM, what they introduced in the new Bansamoro Tonus Region of Muslim Mindanao is asymmetric.
00:17:42 Quasi-federal, the head of the region is first regional.
00:17:49 Our first regional government and there are only two regional governments that are included in our Constitution, Bansamoro and Cordillera.
00:18:00 They are still being done now. But here in Bansamoro, we can see that he is a chief minister, like a prime minister.
00:18:07 The system of their government is parliament, not presidential.
00:18:15 So national, unitary, we are presidential. But in BARMM, quasi-federal and parliament.
00:18:23 So it's really an experiment in democracy. If this will succeed, it is going to be a proof of concept that we can change.
00:18:33 Because if you can change that and run it well in BARMM of all places, we can imitate it in the whole country.
00:18:42 But until then, until then, let's not. We need to be careful in advancing the charter change.
00:18:51 So you will look at the study from the BARMM experiment?
00:18:55 Yes.
00:18:56 But the advocates of the charter change in the Congress said that it's just economic provisions, but it's like a constituent assembly,
00:19:06 like a people's initiative, what they want.
00:19:09 It means that from the people, we will count the number of people who should vote for it.
00:19:16 But the Senate doesn't want to. Is this their concern?
00:19:21 They will start when you open the door to the so-called economic provisions, but all of that is political, government tenure, etc.
00:19:31 Do you think there is a hidden plan or just economic provisions?
00:19:38 It's hard to say, but we know that once you open it, all bets are off.
00:19:45 Everything can be moved once you open it. You cannot say that this is the only thing that will move, it's just surgical.
00:19:52 But if the process of changing the Constitution is unconstitutional, who will make the decision? The Supreme Court will make the decision.
00:20:08 Because there are editorial mistakes when the 1987 Constitution was being discussed.
00:20:16 First, it was unicameral, then bicameral, and it was forgotten to include that both houses voting separately.
00:20:25 Now, it's thought that only one house, the bigger house, can already amend or even revise the Constitution.
00:20:36 So it's a big legal and constitutional question.
00:20:40 We don't have a Constitutional Court, we only have a Supreme Court. So it's really a big question.
00:20:46 We don't know. The BBM administration has made many decisions that are surprising and positive.
00:20:57 Like the forced correction on the issue of West Philippine Sea and its connection to China, the release of Senator De Lima, the exploration of peace talks with the NPA.
00:21:11 But this decision to reopen the Chacha seems to need a lot of thinking and consideration from all parties.
00:21:21 Professor Julay, one thing people are looking at in the 2025 elections is if the Senate will change its composition.
00:21:30 It's largely now, right now, the ones who will be removed are largely Duterte allies.
00:21:36 Because of what happened recently, what do you think will be the Senate's composition in the 2025 elections?
00:21:44 There are 12 to be removed but it seems that the returnees will be the ones to be ranked, the people who will be out. What are your views?
00:21:56 As the ratings are going, it's going to be more of the same.
00:21:59 First of all, from the perspective of political parties, it seems that there will be realignment of forces.
00:22:10 Of course, in midterms, the incumbent administration is always in a hurry.
00:22:15 That's why we expect that the politicians will join the administration coalition that is now anchored in the CMD of Speaker Martin and the Partido Federal ng Pilipinas,
00:22:30 where the son of BPM, Congressman Sandro Marcos, has joined.
00:22:36 Then other major parties, the Nationalista Party of the Villars, the National Unity Party and the Nationalist People's Coalition.
00:22:46 The former PDP-Laban is like the other presidential parties, it was wiped out and was divided into three factions.
00:22:55 The PDP has three factions.
00:22:57 If they are that big, before there were only three, the original led by Joco Pimentel, the Pusy Wing and former President Duterte, and the political parties that have lost to the CMD.
00:23:17 So the former President Duterte is running ahead and the new opposition is leading.
00:23:23 So you can imagine, the politics in the Philippines is really surprising.
00:23:27 Suddenly, President Duterte is now the champion of human rights, freedom of speech and democracy.
00:23:35 But it seems that he will face his fate in Davao City.
00:23:42 That's why they need to think about it because their baluarte might disappear.
00:23:47 There are many re-electionists. The surveys are coming out. Senator Aimee, although it was reported that she has an interest in running for local in Manila.
00:23:58 Of course, Tia Cayetano, Sila Pongot, Bato.
00:24:02 Because of the incumbency advantage, out of sight, out of mind, if you are not on the radar of the public, you will forget.
00:24:13 These are the incumbent senators that they remember. That's why they are still included in the survey.
00:24:21 Then the other senators are the institutions that are popular, Tito Soto, Tito Sen, Manny Pacquiao.
00:24:28 Then the ones that are still in the spotlight of the survey is Erwin Tulfo, the brother of Senator Rocky Tulfo and Isko Moreno.
00:24:39 After so many tries for the national, he tried to run for senator in 2016, he tried to be president in 2020.
00:24:49 It seems that he will be a senator if he runs.
00:24:53 So they had to, again, the traditional or mainstream opposition coalition like the Ocho Derecho in 2013 and Tropang Robredo Pangilinan in 2020.
00:25:08 So they need to build a so-called Big Ten coalition, not just the usual suspects, yellow and pink.
00:25:17 So they have to expand their alliances to even those who they were not really in good political or comfortable with, whoever that may be.
00:25:30 So they need to be smarter, more tactical, more pragmatic in their politics and they need a new narrative.
00:25:38 In the end, it's all about the narrative. So they need to also attract the sectors, especially the youth, who support VP Leni's candidature in 2022.
00:25:52 It suddenly disappeared because VP Leni decided that instead of forming a political movement or political party, he should return to the development NGO.
00:26:02 So a lot of it is wasted.
00:26:05 Professor July, what do you think about our political parties, like flags of convenience,
00:26:11 where there is money and influence, that's where the candidates will go.
00:26:18 But you have a lot of studies on political clans or angkans.
00:26:23 It seems that in the course of the elections in the Philippines, their attachment to power is getting tighter.
00:26:30 What is the outlook in the Congress and Senate? It seems that most of them are from the angkans.
00:26:37 Yeah, so that's the irony. The Philippines takes pride in being the oldest democracy in Asia.
00:26:45 We have the longest experience in political party politics.
00:26:48 In 1900, the first political party, ironically, was a federalist party.
00:26:55 So in 1900, the first party was established during the American era.
00:27:00 In post-war, our two-party system is stable. In fact, it's a copy of the, except for the federal aspect, we are a carbon copy of the American model.
00:27:14 The authoritarian regime was broken and we had a multi-party democracy.
00:27:24 Now the problem is that political clans and dynasties are getting stronger.
00:27:30 According to our studies in the School of Government, in three or five years' time,
00:27:36 practically 85% of all elected officials, both national and local, would come from political dynasties.
00:27:45 Because there are non-dynasties and political dynasties.
00:27:49 If a non-dynasty wins, they will build their own dynasty.
00:27:55 So we really need to go back to our constitutional provision on regulating.
00:28:01 Maybe regulating because at this point, they can't be banned because they are practically running the entire country.
00:28:09 And one way to do that really, aside from regulating, is to ban the running of other clans.
00:28:18 Because there is a so-called fat and thin dynasty.
00:28:21 The thin dynasty is just one person.
00:28:24 One at a time.
00:28:25 But the fat dynasty, which is one at a time, almost all of the members are in politics,
00:28:32 is not good because it is a political monopoly.
00:28:37 It's a monopoly, not a democracy.
00:28:40 Even if you say you are halal, you have what is called an incumbency advantage.
00:28:45 If you are incumbent, you have resources, you are the one who earns, you are the one who is famous.
00:28:51 So we need to strengthen the political party and all the support to strengthen our political parties.
00:29:00 Because political parties are the bearers of democracy.
00:29:03 If there is a dynasty, they should enter the party and compete with the non-dynasty members of the party.
00:29:13 And the party will decide whether, like other countries, in India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, there are dynasties as well.
00:29:24 But they enter the strong party and the party decides whether they will run or not.
00:29:32 It's not the family, the owner of the party, who decides whether they will run or not.
00:29:37 But Professor July, they say there are also strong dynasties.
00:29:42 That's the argument that if there is a clear, complete and strong service, there will be no problem with the dynasties.
00:29:51 On the other hand, you are saying equity of the incumbent,
00:29:56 if they are in power and will run again, the abuse of state resources is possible and likely to happen.
00:30:03 That means they can use almost everything, money, personnel, vehicles, equipment of the government for their re-election.
00:30:16 What do you think? In sum, because it's becoming generational, like the power is being inherited.
00:30:24 There are the children, grandchildren, nieces and nephews who have the opportunity to run.
00:30:30 So what are the overall good and bad points about dynasties? Why should people be concerned about it?
00:30:36 First of all, public office is a public trust. It should not be treated as a political heirloom.
00:30:42 It's not the ownership of one, two or more families.
00:30:46 And then the essence of democracy is really giving chance to others.
00:30:50 It's about competition. It's about leveling the playing field so that even those coming from the non-dynastic,
00:30:57 non-political families or non-political clans can have an equal chance of being elected.
00:31:02 Because it's not just the members of the political clans who will be good.
00:31:06 There are many good fellow countrymen who are excelling in their fields, not just here in the Philippines but also in other countries.
00:31:14 Why don't they give?
00:31:17 But they say one problem is the voters. It's not that they are being blamed because they are entitled to help.
00:31:27 They say that the voters and the politicians should have a taste for it because they are all equal to you.
00:31:35 What can you say about that? Is it part of our political culture that is really dependent on the politicians?
00:31:43 That's why the people are still voting.
00:31:46 I'm sorry, I don't believe that. It's like blaming the victims.
00:31:52 They are the victims, they are the ones who are being deprived, they are the ones who are being robbed.
00:31:57 They are the ones at fault. The reason why they are voting like that is because of the supply side.
00:32:03 The supply is limited, the monopoly of the voters.
00:32:07 If you increase the supply and make your politics the demand side, the people will listen to you and not just the interests of the families,
00:32:19 the voters will vote more properly.
00:32:27 So if you say you are a member of the dynasty, this is a democracy, you are being robbed.
00:32:36 But if you are being robbed by the dynasties, who will be the next one to be robbed?
00:32:40 The interests of the people or the interests of the dynasty?
00:32:43 Their project is that after the election, everyone will be in love with the poor, everyone will be angry with corruption, but in the end, it will be repeated.
00:32:53 Let's go back to the 2024 prospects. The issues are the same.
00:32:59 The price of inflation is too high, the lack of jobs, the lack of salary, and of course, the issues of health, education, and housing.
00:33:17 What do you think, in 2024, with the policies you're seeing being enacted, there are a lot of pokey points that they claim,
00:33:25 "ayuda here and there, no one will be hungry, etc."
00:33:29 What do you think is the real need for reform if we're talking about the well-being of the people?
00:33:37 The problem is since 1992, every new administration, the first one they discuss is the economy, which is important.
00:33:49 But because of the focus on the economy, the socio-economic reforms were not implemented.
00:33:58 The last major attempt to push a social reform agenda was FDR.
00:34:05 There were many other things done under the other administration, the conditional cash transfer of the CMA and Pinoy,
00:34:16 and the other social policies that were pushed by President Duterte.
00:34:23 But the challenge here for BBM is to push a comprehensive social reform agenda.
00:34:33 And he said his administration will build better, will build more better.
00:34:42 This build more better must be anchored in the social reform agenda, not just a temporary help,
00:34:54 but something that will be institutionalized and will really lift the marginalized and the poor to the level of at least lower middle class.
00:35:08 That's important because even the Philippines, despite the negative economic projections, we are slowly recovering.
00:35:18 We are nearing as scheduled the projections of the economists that we will be a middle-income country.
00:35:27 And the geopolitical analysts are saying that we will be a middle power in the future given what's happening around us.
00:35:37 So this is really positive.
00:35:40 And it's in the hands of the incumbent president, Bongbong Marcos, he has all the political capital.
00:35:49 He was the first majority president under the post-Marcos period, Marcos.
00:35:59 So he has the political capital but he should not expend it on things like charter change.
00:36:07 He said it's right, he still has a lot to achieve. So he needs to think about it.
00:36:14 Many are hearing about such plans and in truth, it's like money is coming out for the people in terms of various aid programs.
00:36:26 But the downside is that the concerns of the people are still there.
00:36:32 They are saying that the president is traveling a lot and he will spend a lot of money.
00:36:37 In the budget that was approved and signed, there are added unprogrammed funds, not in the original request.
00:36:45 So it seems like it will help the poor but there is a loss or a decrease in the spending of the wealthy in the other country.
00:36:56 What do you think? How do they balance out these issues?
00:36:59 He should really come out with a no-nonsense campaign, anti-corruption campaign.
00:37:07 Again, this is one of the important issues that he brought to his family.
00:37:13 It would be again the height of historical irony if he is one of the presidents who can address the problem of corruption.
00:37:23 When he sat down, he said he will give a chance because if he succeeds, the Philippines will succeed.
00:37:33 He gave it and people gave it to him. But he should do it. In the economy, he was late in addressing the problem of agriculture.
00:37:44 In corruption, we haven't felt a real honest to goodness campaign against corruption that is growing after the last administration.
00:37:55 There are many things that he should address. But let's look at the politics of President Bongbong Marcos, politics of redemption.
00:38:08 He really wants to restore the trust of the people in the brand of Matos. He wants to re-establish the name of his father.
00:38:23 But if for example, he can do something about our economy, he can address the issue of war on drugs, accountability with regards to war on drugs.
00:38:37 If he can finish the peace talks with the NDF, it seems he can redeem his name.
00:38:48 But until then, we need to strive and fight.
00:38:54 In your studies and observations, we have several presidents, this is the seventh after Edsa.
00:39:01 What is the most sensitive issue that could cause the rise and fall of presidents?
00:39:07 Is it the socioeconomic issues, the economic hardship of the people or corruption?
00:39:13 Like in the last decades, corruption is the issue that is a trigger of the lack of trust of the people.
00:39:22 Corruption is attached to the personal family or extravagance when in office.
00:39:28 What is your view? How would it figure in the case of the BBM admin?
00:39:34 Corruption has been with us ever since. Not only in Marcos post-Edsa but even post-war, even pre-war, even during the commonwealth era, corruption is high.
00:39:47 Our problem with corruption is really high from the start.
00:39:55 So it's a challenge to the incumbent president to address this issue of corruption.
00:40:02 We remember that corruption issues are high in the 10 years of the leadership of President GMA.
00:40:10 The people's response was that they saw in Noy Noy Aquino as a clean politician who can face corruption.
00:40:21 Somehow, there was an honest to goodness anti-corruption campaign by the former President Noy Noy Aquino.
00:40:30 But it seems that the previous administration lost it.
00:40:34 The anti-corruption right should be returned by President BBM.
00:40:43 One solution here is to really introduce or institutionalize a very strong independent anti-corruption agency like what is in Singapore and Hong Kong.
00:40:56 There are many solutions that have been said by academics and legislators for a long time.
00:41:03 Another solution is to increase the salaries of civil servants so that they won't have a temptation to corruption.
00:41:13 So there are many things.
00:41:16 Now what will make an incumbent president stronger?
00:41:22 First, your narrative should be consistent.
00:41:27 What you promised to the people, what story you will tell as a president, you will fulfill.
00:41:33 Because if you are distracted by the story of being a president, you will have a narrative trap.
00:41:41 It will be dangerous to the public.
00:41:46 There are strategic interest groups whose support will make or break a presidency,
00:41:53 like what we saw during the time of Ferdinand Marcos Sr. and Joseph Estrada.
00:42:01 These are the strategic groups.
00:42:03 What are these strategic groups?
00:42:05 The business sector. If there is trust in the business, okay.
00:42:09 Check. Military. Oh there's a lot of destabilization.
00:42:14 The Catholic Church, although not that strong, but it seems that the Catholic Church is having a revival influence.
00:42:23 We saw this in the release of the movie "Bubusa".
00:42:27 Then the civil society that also got weaker in the previous administration but is slowly getting stronger.
00:42:34 And the most important strategic interest group is the return of the US.
00:42:40 After China pushed them out of the previous administration.
00:42:45 So the support of these groups will more or less make or break an incumbent presidency.
00:42:52 But in the end, it's still the majority of the public.
00:42:55 For as long as you maintain a stable to high approval rating, you're still okay.
00:43:01 Okay. Quick question.
00:43:03 In the narrative of President BBM, the 20 pesos per kilo of rice, it seems like people are still waiting.
00:43:11 Is that possible? Will it be fulfilled or is it a bit of a discouraging promise?
00:43:16 Okay. BBM's campaign is based on nostalgia.
00:43:23 Nostalgia for the past.
00:43:27 Because of the current situation, especially the life of his father,
00:43:35 he told that during his father's time, he was like this, 20 pesos per kilo of rice.
00:43:40 Many people believed him because of social media.
00:43:44 Because of the power of social media now.
00:43:47 But it cannot be reversed in that time.
00:43:55 That's why he needs to change that story.
00:43:57 So the narrative of nostalgia, he needs to change it to the future.
00:44:04 Instead of looking at the past, let's move forward and look at the future.
00:44:09 And it seems that by looking at the future, we shall address all of these issues.
00:44:14 And these issues might even be the same issues that were advocated by his family's enemies.
00:44:23 So his family's enemies seem to be in agreement with the issues of strengthening the economy,
00:44:34 answering the questions raised by the institution and human rights of the country,
00:44:42 and the pushback to the occupation of China.
00:44:47 You mentioned earlier the destabilization, there are rumors, it's confirmed.
00:44:53 Should people and the armed forces of the Philippines be afraid of such activities that they said are no longer happening?
00:45:03 Yes, there are rumors of destabilization.
00:45:06 It's like a throwback to the first Marcos administration.
00:45:11 We are not like Thailand, where the coup d'etat is still not successful.
00:45:24 What succeeded in the Philippines is what is called military-backed people power insurrection.
00:45:30 Because the people are coming out with the military.
00:45:35 There is no such thing in Thailand.
00:45:37 In Thailand, the tanks are the ones who come out.
00:45:40 In the Philippines, it's the people.
00:45:42 Now, it only happened twice, EDSA 1 and EDSA 2.
00:45:45 In EDSA 1, the military came out and the people came in.
00:45:50 In EDSA 2, the people came out and the military came in.
00:45:53 So if the people don't support, they won't be able to fight, like in EDSA 3, Oakwood, Manila Pen.
00:46:01 So we should watch out for the issue of the favors that President Duterte gave that are heavy on our economy.
00:46:15 President BDM should rationalize that it is being used to provoke the military.
00:46:24 But usually, the ones leading it are the retired generals and officers who were favored by President Duterte.
00:46:33 So what should be watched out for and those who are observing the military know,
00:46:39 and BDM's camp knows, are the retired generals and officers and the PMA batches.
00:46:47 They have their own chickens.
00:46:49 It's a very different issue. They said that the pension fund of military and other uniformed personnel should have been paid.
00:46:59 The Department of Finance should have arranged it, but Defense Secretary Gilbert Chodoro and the PNP spokesperson talked about it.
00:47:10 They said that they are okay because it is prorated and across a certain period of time.
00:47:16 Suddenly, it's not in the news.
00:47:19 The recent statement of Secretary Gilbert is not in favor of peace talks with the NDFP.
00:47:25 The Armed Forces of the Philippines should be strengthened.
00:47:29 Vice President Sara's position is also the same.
00:47:32 Is this a lethal fight here and there or just a lethal policy difference?
00:47:39 That's the tone of Defense Secretary Gilbert.
00:47:42 Defense Secretary Gilbert is one of the vocalists from the very beginning that no peace talks are possible.
00:47:49 But it seems that there are other former generals in the Cabinet who were opened to peace talks.
00:47:58 The peace talks, you mentioned the peace talks, is also one of the surprising developments under the BDM administration.
00:48:08 We know the Duterte, they opened a resumption of talks.
00:48:15 I'm also a negotiator who is with Europe and negotiated peace talks.
00:48:20 This was also excluded from the first statement that his government is closed, especially Defense Secretary Gilbert.
00:48:28 But this new position of the administration, we can see that his special assistant, Anton Lagdameo, is leading.
00:48:42 So it means that this is true because he is one of the closest lieutenants of the BDM.
00:48:53 Since he is leading, it means that this is the official policy position of the President.
00:49:00 We can see that this was repeated in Oslo because this is a continuation of the third-party facilitation of Norway.
00:49:08 This was excluded from the policy of the Duterte administration of red-tagging and killing the left.
00:49:21 It's a shame because in the beginning, it was already fine.
00:49:23 We thought that we would be able to end this peace agreement.
00:49:29 But it didn't continue because this negotiation is more complicated compared to the MNLF and MILF.
00:49:40 First, the rebellion of the NDF is wider than the MNLF and MILF.
00:49:45 Second, the process of entering the government into the 1995 Brussels agreement is longer.
00:49:52 Four agreements need to be negotiated before it's done.
00:49:56 It's only two.
00:49:58 The two would be included but the peace talks didn't continue.
00:50:03 Now, it looks like they will reboot, start from scratch and they will fast-track because of the spoilers.
00:50:12 There are spoilers in the peace talks, the contra.
00:50:15 They are negotiating but it's not serious, both on the government and NDF side.
00:50:20 On the side of the NDF, the founder of Joma Siso died.
00:50:24 He really wanted the peace talks to end.
00:50:27 But the hardliners were already killed so it's not a problem.
00:50:33 So they will reboot the peace talks and hopefully, this is an irony also.
00:50:39 If the end of the rebellion of the NDF, the longest Maoist insurgency in the world, is fulfilled,
00:50:47 it's again a historical irony that BBM will end the rebellion that started under his father.
00:50:55 But there are concerns.
00:50:58 We interviewed Ms. Julie Belima.
00:51:02 She said that the terrorist tag that was given by Duterte admin was dropped.
00:51:09 It was released as all political prisoners.
00:51:12 There were 400 who passed it.
00:51:15 They said that their consultants who are now in jail and with Tay-bin passed the free pass.
00:51:21 But what is your estimate of the prospect of the terrorist tag?
00:51:24 Will it be blamed on the Anti-Terrorism Council?
00:51:28 Because it seems that it was put there during President Duterte's time and anti-terrorism law was passed.
00:51:33 That's all.
00:51:34 The release of all political prisoners, will the military not be blamed?
00:51:39 Well, that's one of the deal-breakers in the past negotiations.
00:51:44 First of all, the ceasefire.
00:51:47 For a long time or short term.
00:51:50 Or the NDF wants a fight and talk.
00:51:54 We're just shooting but we're negotiating.
00:51:56 Then the address of socio-economic problems first, then talk, then ceasefire.
00:52:04 The NDF said, let's talk and we'll fix the socio-economic problems.
00:52:09 So there are many of those.
00:52:11 Then give amnesty to everyone.
00:52:14 No, the military said, the government said, no, let's finish the peace talks first before you give amnesty.
00:52:22 So the revolutionary taxes were stopped.
00:52:26 The NDF doesn't want that.
00:52:28 They both said that they're just using the peace talks for their strategic or tactical interests.
00:52:36 Now, both sides.
00:52:39 All of that can be fixed if you have a negotiation, either formal or backdoor.
00:52:44 In the past, there was a very efficient and effective backdoor negotiation.
00:52:48 There were stalemates in the formal negotiation that were discussed outside the formal negotiation.
00:52:54 All of that can be done.
00:52:56 What's important is the commitment on both sides to see it through.
00:53:01 And after all this time, I think even the NDF and the left forces are convinced that perhaps it's time for them to convert themselves into a real political party.
00:53:13 Just like what the MILF and the MNLF are doing in part.
00:53:17 What will happen to the NTF-LCAP where Vice President Sara is leading the National Task Force to End Local Communists and Insurgency?
00:53:27 The fund is huge and it seems like they're still trying to get the supposedly red tag or the left and communists.
00:53:37 So that will be one of the three major policy differences that will contribute to a potential break between the Marcos and the Duterte forces.
00:53:49 First is China, second is the ICC, and third is the peace talks.
00:53:56 Senator Delima's case is already over.
00:54:01 So looking forward, these three issues, how to deal with China and the West Philippine Sea, the entry of the ICC and the continuation of the peace talks with the NTF are the breaking point in unity.
00:54:20 All right. Let's go to your view in 2024.
00:54:24 What are the best things that you anticipate could happen or should happen in the Philippines?
00:54:29 We are still, well, we thought the pandemic is over but COVID is still spreading.
00:54:40 There are new strains so we still need to be careful and we need to take care of our health.
00:54:48 Let's not forget the lessons we learned during the pandemic, especially the care of others.
00:54:58 We still need to practice the safety protocols.
00:55:01 In terms of the economy, the world is facing a tough time because there's a war in Ukraine and Israel and there are natural disasters.
00:55:13 But the economists said that our economy will run well and because our economic fundamentals are very strong and because of the continuous entry of money from the BPO and OFW, our economy will run well.
00:55:31 However, with the entry of AI, we need to make a transition because BPO and OFW seem to be in the near future.
00:55:42 So we should be cautious.
00:55:45 All right. What are the things you are worried about that could happen that you didn't expect?
00:55:52 Well of course the threat of destabilization against the government.
00:55:58 Whether you voted for BBM or not, he is our president.
00:56:02 And of course what we've learned from EDSA-DOS is sometimes our proposed cure is worse than the disease.
00:56:11 When we asked ERAP-Estrada, the crisis of legitimation in our country stopped.
00:56:19 It stretched all the way to GMA and Hello Garci and all the attempted coups and mutinies.
00:56:27 So let's just trust the process and let's strengthen our institutions rather than go outside the institutions.
00:56:35 So that's what I'm worried about. How far will the two camps of BDS and BBM go?
00:56:43 Will this help the Philippines or will it make us more dangerous?
00:56:47 How far will the government bring this fight?
00:56:52 What do you think is the good, better, best that President BBM can do?
00:56:58 Good, better, best.
00:57:15 What I would put is he maintains his current policies that will strengthen our economy and will revive our democratic institutions.
00:57:37 I'm not sure if he will commit to more social and political reforms without necessarily going through a cha-cha.
00:57:47 And the best is just be true to his promise of being a good president so that we will have a better country.
00:57:57 I just want to clarify that I'm a political scientist and not a mongologist.
00:58:02 But Karl Marx said, "Men and women make history but not always according to their choosing."
00:58:09 So in the end, we as citizens should make the decision where our country should go.
00:58:19 Let's not rely too much on politicians.
00:58:22 So the best is to stop or reduce travel?
00:58:27 I hope so. Because if he says we need to save, we need to save.
00:58:34 So if he is too much to President Duterte, President Duterte will be poor to travel.
00:58:40 And we know that President Duterte only travels once to a country.
00:58:45 But this, almost everything.
00:58:48 That has always been the case.
00:58:50 A 4 trillion pesos investment pledges.
00:58:55 Now in the presence of Vice President Sara and her father, former President Duterte,
00:59:01 what do you think is the good, better, best that they should do this year, 2025?
00:59:08 It would be good if they lessen the Duterte style of politics.
00:59:16 Combative, brave, too much, because people's mood is different now.
00:59:20 His populist politics of anger was also affected because people are angry with the lack of administration of the Philippines.
00:59:28 But that's over. You can't go back to that because you can't fight the yellows or pinks because they don't have power.
00:59:36 Maybe because they don't have power anymore.
00:59:39 Because the populists are the "us against them".
00:59:43 Now they don't have anything to teach.
00:59:46 Before, drug addicts, then yellows, then pinks, those are their opponents.
00:59:51 Now they don't have those anymore. Their opponent is DBM.
00:59:56 But that won't be good for the country.
00:59:59 It won't be good for VP Sara's political fortunes.
01:00:02 VP Sara should also go on a forced correction and change her branding and positioning vis-a-vis the administration.
01:00:14 It's hard to be an opposition in a midterm election even if you are the Vice President.
01:00:23 So when Judge Omar Binay was in office, she was the de facto opposition in the Liberal Party but she didn't support Hinoy.
01:00:33 But now VP is questioning the policy of the President, especially in the Pistok.
01:00:42 So that's a big no-no in terms of protocol and in terms of real politics.
01:00:48 So it would be best for them to reinvent their style of politics rather than the usual old Mandigong populist playbook.
01:01:00 People are so active on social media.
01:01:04 There was a time when the debate and discourse were toxic.
01:01:08 But now there are different paths.
01:01:12 What do you call this? Multiverse of madness?
01:01:17 Are you still that mad or should we return to some sense of sanity as citizens?
01:01:24 First, fighting within the unity is a big thing because even their trolls and social media influencers are fighting.
01:01:34 They are now throwing stones.
01:01:38 Second, it seems that more people understand how it works.
01:01:44 And it seems that the position now is pushback.
01:01:49 In every lie that is being spread, you face it.
01:01:54 You answer it right away.
01:01:56 It seems that everyone is doing the same thing.
01:01:59 So the old tactics of the past six years that are bullying online trolls are not resonating anymore.
01:02:09 And it seems that the telcos and social media companies are also having internal clean-up of their accounts.
01:02:22 So it seems that this is being addressed gradually but not yet because we know that we are the troll farm capital of the world,
01:02:31 together with Russia and China.
01:02:35 So we still have a lot to fix but we are gradually understanding how to address this problem.
01:02:43 Okay. And lastly, they say that not all of them are trolls but possibly Filipinos want to express their opinion.
01:02:53 At the same time, of course, our difficulty is that AI will be included in the 2025 elections.
01:03:02 How do you see this affecting the conduct, the discourse, and the engagement of voters and candidates in 2025?
01:03:11 It is more frightening because of AI and the spread of what is called "fake news".
01:03:17 But what I see there is that when fake news became popular, everyone will say it's fake news.
01:03:25 Trump called his criticisms fake news. Duterte is like that.
01:03:32 So now what will happen is everyone will say it's fake news. It's AI, not me.
01:03:38 So there might be possible exposés or real evidence of fake news.
01:03:46 The defense of those who are being bashed or caught is that it's AI, not me.
01:03:52 So those are the possible. But it seems easier.
01:03:56 The system of campaigning will be different, especially online with the use of artificial intelligence.
01:04:05 Okay. Thank you very much Professor July Pantino.
01:04:09 I hope that in the next few months, there will be better days and we will be able to fix the broken relationships for the people.
01:04:18 Good day Professor July T. Hanke.
01:04:22 Thank you Madhu.
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