A look at the positional group matchups and key statistics in the Week 17 game between the Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons with a prediction on the winner.
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00:12 The Bears and the Atlanta Falcons are hanging around in the playoff picture without much hope.
00:18 In the Bears' case, they'll probably be eliminated by Sunday, even if they win.
00:22 So for them, it's probably a case of looking strong to finish the season with an eye on next year
00:28 and making all the decisions that are upcoming pretty obvious.
00:31 It's the Bears against the Falcons at Soldier Field at noon on Sunday.
00:35 Here's who wins and why.
00:37 Here are the advantages the Bears own.
00:40 One is running the ball against Atlanta's 15th-ranked run defense.
00:44 The Bears rediscovering FedEx Ground Player of the Week Khalil Herbert in the running attack last week
00:49 with 112 yards rushing bodes well for this one.
00:53 Atlanta's run defense hasn't been the same since losing defensive tackle Grady Jarrett to start a game at the end of October.
01:00 They've allowed 124 yards a game on the ground since then, just 95 before that.
01:06 Give the Bears an advantage when the Falcons are trying to pass on them.
01:10 Sure, Atlanta has Kyle Pitts and Drake London, but they benched quarterback Desmond Ritter for poor play
01:15 and Taylor Heineke had lost three straight starts before last week's shocking win over Indianapolis at home.
01:23 Since Week 11, the Bears' defense is tied for the NFL lead in takeaways with 14.
01:29 The best shot for Atlanta here is throwing under the zone and to their backs, but how long can they be that patient?
01:36 Another Bears advantage is with intangibles.
01:38 Never mind the Falcons are a warm weather and indoor team coming to Chicago in the cold.
01:43 They only averaged 13.6 points a game on the road this year,
01:47 and the Bears in their last five home games are giving up 14.6 points.
01:52 You want one more edge for the Bears? Coaching.
01:55 The Falcons have 10 starters graded in the top 20% at their position in Pro Football Focus's grades,
02:02 yet they have only seven wins. Someone's not getting the job done.
02:11 Here's where there's a push. The Falcons really run the ball well in their wide zone scheme,
02:16 and they should with Ta'Jion Robinson running and Chris Lindstrom and Caleb McGarry and Jake Matthews blocking.
02:22 They're eighth in rushing, but they're going against the number one run defense in the NFL,
02:27 and only the Lions have cracked 100 yards rushing against the Bears since Week 3.
02:32 Another area for a push is special teams.
02:35 Cordero Patterson burned his old team, the Bears, last year with a TD return,
02:40 but he's averaging only 21.3 yards on seven kick returns in this season.
02:45 Bears return man Trent Taylor has the better average of the punt returners,
02:49 while the Bears are still last in covering punts.
02:52 Youngho Ku and Cairo Santos have almost identical kicking percentages,
02:56 but Santos is used to kicking in the Chicago cold.
03:00 Atlanta gets the advantage when the Bears are passing against their secondary.
03:05 The Falcons are ranked eighth in pass coverage.
03:08 Safety Jesse Bates, the third, isn't letting anything get passed,
03:11 and he leads the NFL in interceptions for safeties with six.
03:15 The Bears are without Darnell Mooney, while Cole Komet and DJ Moore will be playing Hurt.
03:20 Also, the Bears trying to pass is the only area where you can give Atlanta an advantage,
03:25 and as a result, the Bears rate a 20-14 winner in a game they're favored to win by three.
03:31 Sadly for them, the chances appear much more slim of the Rams losing to the Giants
03:36 and Seattle losing to Pittsburgh, so they'll be playing for pride next week when they go to Green Bay.
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