Ned Michaels, Jonathan Coachman and Guy Adami are back for another episode of Breaking Even. This week the boys chat all about the 2022 U.S. Open, preview the Travelers Championship, lookahead to the NBA Draft on Thursday. Where should you invest your money when it comes to sports betting props? Speaking of investments... is the Bitcoin slide over or has the pain just begun?
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ABOUT THE SHOW: Breaking Even, where cash meets the course. Each week, host Ned Michaels will combine his love for golf, sports and financial markets into an action-packed podcast where no topic is out of bounds. Joined regularly by CBS sportscaster Jonathan Coachman and CNBC's Guy Adami, Breaking Even has you covered when it comes to options trading in the S&P 500 or when making picks against the spread. We follow the action where ever there is money to be made.
Breaking Even is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Enable push notifications so you always know when the latest episode is available!
Shoot us an email at contact@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @breakingevenpod on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.
Follow Ned Michaels on Twitter: https://twitter.com/nedmichaels
Follow Jonathan Coachman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheCoachrules
Follow Guy Adami on Twitter: https://twitter.com/guyadami
Follow Dan Moses on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dmoses34
Follow Dan Nathan on Twitter: https://twitter.com/RiskReversal
Subscribe to Risk Reversal on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRAOycPjsSgcEyQcuJD_ENA
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ABOUT THE SHOW: Breaking Even, where cash meets the course. Each week, host Ned Michaels will combine his love for golf, sports and financial markets into an action-packed podcast where no topic is out of bounds. Joined regularly by CBS sportscaster Jonathan Coachman and CNBC's Guy Adami, Breaking Even has you covered when it comes to options trading in the S&P 500 or when making picks against the spread. We follow the action where ever there is money to be made.
Breaking Even is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Enable push notifications so you always know when the latest episode is available!
Shoot us an email at contact@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @breakingevenpod on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.
Follow Ned Michaels on Twitter: https://twitter.com/nedmichaels
Follow Jonathan Coachman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheCoachrules
Follow Guy Adami on Twitter: https://twitter.com/guyadami
Follow Dan Moses on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dmoses34
Follow Dan Nathan on Twitter: https://twitter.com/RiskReversal
Subscribe to Risk Reversal on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRAOycPjsSgcEyQcuJD_ENA
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NewsTranscript
00:00 (upbeat music)
00:02 United States Open is in the books.
00:07 We'll tell you how we did with our picks.
00:08 We move now, the PGA Tour, onto Cromwell, Connecticut
00:11 for the Travelers Championship.
00:13 LIV Golf, huge storyline we will discuss.
00:17 NBA Championship, coach owes me a little bit of cash.
00:21 And I panicked and I sold a lot of stuff
00:24 and now I totally regret it.
00:25 Guy Adame is gonna help us break it all down
00:27 and figure out how we can make our money back
00:29 today on Breaking Even.
00:31 (upbeat music)
00:33 Hold me, somebody just hold me, I need a hug.
00:50 (laughing)
00:51 US Open's the longest week of the year
00:53 but it's a strong week.
00:54 Coach, how are we doing over there?
00:56 I'm doing good.
00:57 I loved all your coverage, all the social media content
01:01 that you put out at the US Open.
01:02 I thoroughly loved it.
01:03 Great champion, great event.
01:05 It was cool, it was cool.
01:06 So great job.
01:07 I'm sure you're still exhausted though.
01:09 Exhausted, I told you a story before we came on air
01:11 about misspelling a name on my daughter's friends
01:15 for the swim meet.
01:16 Apparently King does not have two I's in it.
01:19 I'm still exhausted.
01:22 I don't think people understand how long these days are
01:24 when you do the digital content.
01:26 Now you're talking 10, 11 hour days.
01:28 It's no joke, it's no joke.
01:29 Yeah, it's no joke.
01:30 And we love it.
01:31 But at the same time, by the end of a 12 hour day,
01:33 you're just eyes crossed and trying to figure out
01:36 what's going on.
01:37 That being said, this golf course, I've never even played it,
01:40 this country club and it's in my top 10.
01:43 That's how good this place was.
01:44 The history we all know about, but the golf course itself,
01:47 just absolutely phenomenal and proved coach
01:50 to be a worthy test.
01:51 Well, I think what we learned by the end of the week
01:54 is what we always say at the end of every major week.
01:57 Man, that felt like a year.
01:58 Man, Thursday, the first round leaders,
02:00 that felt like a year ago.
02:02 It really truly did because it was kind of like
02:04 three different weeks.
02:05 You had the beginning of the week
02:06 where everybody was talking about live golf
02:08 and the guys coming to play the US Open.
02:09 Then you had Michael Wands saying,
02:10 "Yeah, it's gonna be tough for moving forward."
02:13 Then you had the start and you're like,
02:14 "How will Phil play?
02:15 "How will DJ play?"
02:16 Well, it's pretty obvious that the entire leaderboard
02:20 was all PGA Tour guys.
02:21 No live golf guys there at all.
02:22 I think that's very telling as well.
02:24 But then you get to Sunday
02:26 and I thought it was one of the great final rounds
02:28 that you're gonna see of guys that didn't shoot 64,
02:30 didn't shoot 65.
02:32 But the way that Matthew Fitzpatrick played and Zalators,
02:36 that's all you can ask for.
02:37 And how any player would wanna walk away potentially
02:41 from having the opportunity to play in that,
02:44 I just don't get it.
02:46 - My broadcast partner, Luke Elvey, had a great line.
02:48 He said, "We've got lightweights boxing
02:51 "and throwing heavy punches like heavyweights,"
02:53 or something along those lines.
02:55 It's true.
02:56 I mean, we had these two kind of slightly built guys
03:00 in Zalators and Fitzpatrick and every other hole,
03:03 it seemed like this back and forth.
03:04 So Matthew Fitzpatrick, if you're living under a rock,
03:07 he won the United States Open.
03:09 He also won the US Amateur at this same golf course.
03:13 Jack Nicklaus, the only other player in history
03:15 to do that at Pebble Beach.
03:18 It was a stacked leaderboard.
03:21 We didn't know who was gonna win it
03:22 till the very last second.
03:24 But let's take a look at our picks, coach,
03:25 'cause I'm kind of proud of these.
03:27 We did pretty good.
03:28 - Okay.
03:29 - Hit 'em.
03:30 - What do we have here?
03:31 So my sleeper, Justin Rose,
03:34 had a really good first two days
03:36 and he got a backup.
03:37 McElroy T5, we got close there.
03:40 Thomas had a bad Sunday.
03:41 So my picks were not great.
03:43 I was happy to hit my best bet though, McElroy over Rahm.
03:46 As Rahm went backwards over the weekend as well.
03:49 - Yeah, surprising Rahm on Sunday.
03:50 I thought he might come out with a little bit more action.
03:53 Yeah, McElroy, boy, he looked the part, didn't he?
03:55 Until Saturday.
03:56 He got blown.
03:58 Give him credit though, he fought hard on Saturday.
04:00 He could have absolutely been blown out of there.
04:02 Justin Thomas just didn't have it.
04:04 Did hit a couple of the top 10.
04:06 I had Zalatorson, Fitzpatrick.
04:08 - Yeah, that's always good.
04:08 - And then this, the easiest money all year.
04:10 Sam Burns over Victor Hodlund.
04:12 I walked a few holes with Victor
04:13 and absolutely love this guy, by the way.
04:15 He's one of the nicest, coolest,
04:16 most talented dudes out there.
04:18 But I walked a couple of holes with him,
04:19 saw what was happening around the greens and thought,
04:21 no, no, no.
04:22 It was easy money right here.
04:25 - Yeah, I called him at the Zuri Classic.
04:26 I think I told you actually at dinner.
04:28 When we were calling, I said,
04:30 "This is the worst short game I've ever seen."
04:32 So people, a little bonus betting tip right now.
04:35 Even if the books have it,
04:36 either bet against Hodlund and Matthew Wolfe
04:38 or just stay away.
04:39 Because right now they're going through
04:40 that sophomore slump in year four.
04:43 They're just not playing good golf.
04:45 - Yeah, and I love Hodlund.
04:46 So I'm always going to root for him,
04:47 but you know, business is business.
04:49 - Yes it is.
04:49 - And by the way, I think I'm just going to start betting
04:51 Zalatoris to win every single time.
04:53 'Cause at some point now, he has got to get a win.
04:57 He's too good not to.
04:59 - Well, he's got to fix his putty.
05:00 And I think anybody that watched that on Sunday,
05:02 and I'm worried that he's going to turn
05:05 into the next Phil Mickelson.
05:07 Meaning that he's going to be,
05:08 have all these second place finishes for years.
05:11 'Cause Phil didn't even win his first major
05:12 until he got into his thirties.
05:14 And is Zalatoris going to be that guy
05:16 that because of his putting,
05:17 can't make a big putt when you need to,
05:19 can't make a five footer when he needs to.
05:21 I was standing behind him at the farmers
05:23 when he had a putt to win in regulation.
05:25 Is he going to be that guy?
05:26 I'm worried about it.
05:27 'Cause his game is great, but he can't putt.
05:29 - But he's plus in the category of strokes game putty
05:32 in the majors.
05:34 He putts fast greens well.
05:36 Now at crucial times, I think the sample size
05:38 is a little too small still to really know.
05:40 But he made some big time putts.
05:42 You can just look at 13 and 15.
05:45 He made some big putts coming down the stretch, 16.
05:48 - But he did say this one hurts a little bit more.
05:51 So we're starting to see now,
05:53 because of the PGA championship,
05:54 it was all, "Hey, I'm happy to be here.
05:56 Oh, it was great getting into the playoff."
05:57 Now it's, "Boy, this one hurts."
06:00 And it doesn't take too many second place finishes
06:03 to start to feel that way.
06:04 So we'll see, but he's going to be
06:06 an absolute bonafide superstar and I'm here for it.
06:10 - He really lost it when Fitzpatrick three putt at 11.
06:14 He has the advantage, now Zalatoris does.
06:15 He has to hit the fairway.
06:17 He's got to take the oxygen out of the room for Fitzpatrick
06:20 and he blows it way right on 12 and it leads to a bogey.
06:23 You have to know the moment.
06:25 Obviously he didn't mean to do that,
06:26 but you got to know the moment
06:27 and somehow you've got to find that fairway on 12.
06:31 - All about fairways.
06:32 - There's so much more to discuss,
06:33 but obviously we do 30 minutes here on "Breaking Even."
06:36 So let's look ahead.
06:36 We're in Cromwell, Connecticut this week
06:39 for the Travelers Championship.
06:41 And I don't know how these guys can play another tournament
06:43 after playing the US Open.
06:44 It just, to me, boggles my mind,
06:46 but it's always a strong feel.
06:48 So here we go, coach, you're on the cue, go ahead.
06:51 - Yeah, all right.
06:51 So this is one of my favorite tournaments of the year.
06:53 My house that I still own is only 25 minutes
06:56 from this golf course.
06:57 I've played it many, many times.
06:58 Love the Travelers.
06:59 It gets a great field 'cause years ago,
07:01 the guys that run it, they're amazing.
07:03 They started sending a plane to the US Open
07:05 and bringing players back with their families.
07:08 And the player's like, you know what?
07:09 I really like it there.
07:10 Spieth, one of the great finishers of all time
07:12 at this event, out of the bunker over Daniel Berger.
07:14 Got a lot of history here.
07:16 Patrick Cantlay, when he was an amateur,
07:18 shot a 60 on this golf course.
07:21 I think this is one of those weeks
07:22 where all of a sudden he just pops up
07:24 'cause that's how he wins.
07:25 He just pops up.
07:26 So I'm gonna go Cantlay plus 1,400.
07:28 I think Brian Harmon, this is a great venue for him.
07:31 Not too long.
07:32 You need to have really good shots around.
07:33 He loves this place.
07:34 I think Harmon, top five, plus 750.
07:37 Jason Day had a good tournament here a year ago.
07:40 I think he's in the top 10.
07:41 And then a little sleeper who played really well,
07:45 Ned, at the US Open.
07:46 And he's been playing better as of late.
07:48 Played good at the Memorial.
07:49 Danny McCarthy.
07:50 - Yeah.
07:51 - Come into a top 10, top five, whatever you want.
07:53 I like him to win, he's plus 5,000.
07:56 But he's a great number if you wanna have any of those
07:59 top fives or top 10.
08:00 So I like all those.
08:01 And then my best bet, Keegan Bradley.
08:03 This is his second favorite tournament of the year
08:05 after last week.
08:06 I think he has a top 20 lock this week at plus 140.
08:09 - I love your Keegan Bradley.
08:10 That's easy money right there.
08:12 That's a good pick.
08:13 Danny McCarthy, agreed.
08:14 I mean, this guy, he's due.
08:15 He is the best putter on the planet.
08:18 And every putty hit looks like it's going in.
08:19 If it doesn't, I like Danny McCarthy.
08:21 I think that gives him a ton of confidence
08:23 coming out of the United States Open.
08:24 I don't know about Jason Day.
08:26 I understand, plays this place well,
08:27 but I don't know where he is right now, mentally.
08:31 Harmon, yeah, Bulldog, Cantlie.
08:33 I haven't liked what I've seen out of Cantlie
08:35 over the past couple of weeks.
08:35 I know he finished well at the Memorial,
08:38 but it felt like he found a band-aid
08:40 kind of Friday afternoon
08:41 that lasted him throughout the weekend.
08:42 - That's why I picked him.
08:43 That's exactly why I picked him,
08:45 'cause that's how he does it.
08:45 He just kind of goes along,
08:47 then all of a sudden he has a great week
08:48 like he had with Zander at the Zerk.
08:51 - A long shot for me, Luke List.
08:53 He's not winning this tournament,
08:54 but he plays well on soft conditions
08:56 with kind of bent Powa mix and big hitter of the ball.
09:00 You always get some rain this time of year up in Cromwell.
09:03 So you know you're going to have to carry the ball
09:04 a long way.
09:05 He was my pick just based on distance alone.
09:07 Top 10, Davis, Riley, Aaron Wise.
09:09 Watch out for Aaron Wise.
09:10 This kid's going to have a big summer.
09:12 Talked to he and talked to his coach, Jeff Smith.
09:14 His swing, he finally said is where he wants it.
09:17 Again, remember this guy won
09:18 the NCAA championship at Oregon.
09:20 He hits it a mile, he hits it straight up in the air,
09:22 and he's finally starting to putt well now
09:24 using his old college coaches, Long Putter and Casey Martin.
09:28 Davis Riley, this guy is great.
09:30 And we're going to talk about Liv
09:31 because there's some chance Davis is, bye-bye.
09:34 Jordan Spieth, we're going to see.
09:35 Just because he plays well here, you got to pick him.
09:39 And Rory McIlroy, again, long hitter,
09:41 hits it high, putting so well, so you got to go with him.
09:45 My favorite bet, it's supposed to be
09:48 Brant Snedeker, first round leader.
09:50 I think, again, give me a little grace after the US Open here.
09:53 I think I forgot to put that board in for our main man.
09:57 So Snedeker, first round leader,
09:59 but I'll take him to win at those odds, sure, why not?
10:01 - All right, I don't mind any of these picks
10:03 to be honest with you.
10:04 The one that I really don't like is your McIlroy outright.
10:07 And there's two reasons why.
10:08 A, it's below minus 1,000 and I hate betting.
10:12 I would never bet that, but that's why I wouldn't bet
10:14 if I was a fan at home watching the show.
10:16 But number two, and probably a bigger reason why,
10:19 is he just won a Canada two weeks ago.
10:21 Last week, he was the face of the PGA Tour at the US Open.
10:24 He just was.
10:26 And every single day he was asked about Liv Gault
10:28 and he answered every single question.
10:31 I think he's gonna be exhausted this week.
10:33 And I think by the time we get to Sunday,
10:34 he could be in contention,
10:35 but I don't think he'll have enough energy
10:37 to finish the job.
10:38 - He's gonna be asked about it again
10:40 because Liv is preparing for their second event.
10:43 They're out in Portland, Oregon.
10:45 Abraham Anser is reportedly going.
10:47 Brooks Koepka this morning is reportedly going.
10:50 Again, I can't confirm that 100%
10:52 until they actually put a peg in the ground and tee off,
10:55 but neither of those would surprise me.
10:57 And then there's some other pretty big names
10:58 that are being floated around.
11:00 So yeah, Roy McIlroy is gonna continue to be asked about it.
11:02 He's gonna continue to be the face of the tour,
11:05 but coach, this Liv tour, it's gaining a little bit of steam.
11:09 It's gaining some credibility now
11:10 with the players that are involved in it.
11:12 Are you nervous?
11:13 Are you worried about this thing?
11:14 - No, I'm not nervous at all.
11:16 And I know other people and really close friends of mine are,
11:19 and I'm gonna tell you why.
11:21 Just with my experience in the entertainment world
11:23 and the sports world, it's extensive.
11:25 And there is no substitute, period, for star power.
11:29 And let's just look at the players that have gone.
11:31 They've gone after names that are no longer stars
11:35 on the PGA Tour.
11:36 What I mean by that is this,
11:37 Brooks Koepka never, never prioritized PGA Tour events.
11:42 Never.
11:43 It was always- - They were warmups.
11:44 - Always, yeah, they were warmups.
11:45 I don't, all right.
11:47 I practice at the tournament events.
11:51 Remember when he used to say that?
11:52 I practice when I get there.
11:54 - Yeah. - He doesn't play golf.
11:56 DJ said last week to a reporter, almost incredulous,
11:59 that he'd be asked this.
12:01 He's like, "The whole point is," and he laughed.
12:03 He went, "The whole point is to play less golf,"
12:06 which is exactly what Liv wants to hear, right?
12:08 Exactly what fans at home who are gonna pay $85 a ticket
12:12 to go watch these guys play golf want to hear.
12:15 Oh, don't worry about us.
12:16 We wanna play less and make $200 million.
12:19 I don't know anybody that gets paid to work less,
12:23 but is this really work too?
12:25 So Brooks doesn't surprise me, doesn't even make me blink.
12:29 Abraham Answer, even less.
12:30 Answer's not a guy that you can build yourself around.
12:33 Now, is he big in Mexico?
12:36 Yes, but is he somebody that anybody talks about
12:40 when they're going to a tournament and say,
12:41 "I gotta go watch Abraham Answer today"?
12:43 The answer's a resounding no.
12:45 So when you look at all these big names,
12:47 Ned, Patrick Reed, Brooks Koepka, DJ, Phil,
12:52 Abraham Answer, Louis Oosthuizen, Ian Poulter,
12:55 they all have something in common.
12:57 Over the hill, having one in a minute,
12:59 and really wanna take the easy way out, as Rory said,
13:02 and just take the money, own that.
13:05 But don't come back to me and say,
13:07 "This is all about competition," 'cause it's not.
13:09 There is no competition, and that's where I stand.
13:13 - It reminds me of somebody was asking me,
13:15 and I was trying to say,
13:16 I think the quality of the golf,
13:18 so what we've seen so far may suffer, to your point.
13:21 Trying to play less.
13:22 Guys who have talked about both DJ and Louis Oosthuizen,
13:26 have talked about retiring by the time they're 45.
13:30 Same with Hudson Swofford, right?
13:31 I mean, he's talked about,
13:33 he wants to exit the game around that age.
13:35 It strikes me as a difference between the NBA
13:38 during the regular season
13:39 versus the NBA during the postseason.
13:42 The live is NBA during the regular season,
13:44 where guys kind of play defense if it's against a rival,
13:46 or they need a big game,
13:48 'cause somebody was talking trash on social media.
13:51 PGA Tour is the NBA during the playoffs,
13:53 where you're fighting to survive,
13:56 and you're fighting to make the cut,
13:57 and you eat what you kill kind of deal,
14:00 and that just sharpens the blade
14:03 if you're playing on the PGA Tour,
14:05 and that's the case,
14:05 you're trying to make the cut every week.
14:06 So I'm with you on where we may end up
14:09 in terms of the level of competition,
14:13 but some of the names that are starting to bubble up
14:14 of guys who might be headed over to the live,
14:17 to me, it's a little bit concerning.
14:20 - Like who? - Like Murakawa.
14:22 Again, this is total speculation, total speculation.
14:24 - I will read you a tweet that he put out this morning.
14:28 - Okay, good.
14:29 I hope it's saying--
14:30 - Here is from his account.
14:32 To state for the record, once again,
14:35 you all are absolutely wrong.
14:38 I've said it since February at Riviera,
14:40 that I'm here to stay on the PGA Tour,
14:41 and nothing has changed.
14:43 Now, if you'll excuse me,
14:44 I've got to get some cereal to pour in my milk.
14:47 - Good, good, 'cause I like this guy,
14:49 and he is a guy you do go to tournaments to watch.
14:51 - 100%. - And he also sets
14:52 the barometer for the young players of,
14:56 hey, this is, if you want to have legacy,
14:58 and you want to play with the best,
15:00 right now, here's where you go.
15:02 And hopefully that's where it stays.
15:04 - Hopefully so, and hopefully a lot of these guys
15:05 that call Murakawa have gotten to talk to guys
15:07 like Rory McIlroy, because I'm telling you,
15:09 and I've been successful in my career,
15:12 but certainly haven't made millions and millions of dollars,
15:15 but I've been around guys that have made millions
15:17 and millions of dollars,
15:18 and the one thing we don't talk about,
15:20 ever when we're in the moment competing,
15:22 or doing whatever it is, a show or whatever,
15:24 is we don't talk about, well, I've made this much money,
15:26 so I'm just going to sit and do nothing.
15:28 No, 'cause you love to do it.
15:30 You love to do it.
15:32 And so, how long is it going to be
15:33 before some of these guys that only play eight times a year
15:37 are sitting around going,
15:38 man, nobody's paying attention to me.
15:40 Nobody's watching me.
15:41 I'm getting no attention.
15:43 Well, because you're not a star,
15:45 and you never were a star for some of them.
15:48 Now, some of them are.
15:49 - Yeah, I never once thought about money
15:52 while I was playing a professional golf event.
15:54 Not once.
15:55 - Thank you, thank you.
15:56 - And there's no way that Zala Torres and Fitzpatrick
15:59 are coming down the stretch going,
16:00 oh, that putt's going to cost me.
16:02 Come on, come on.
16:03 - I'm so tired of people on Twitter too,
16:04 just not even just coming at me,
16:06 just the people that have never been in the space,
16:09 that have never been inside the ropes,
16:11 have never been anywhere at the level that we do it,
16:14 whether it's TV or golf, to just say,
16:16 oh, just take the money, anybody would do it.
16:18 It's so much deeper than that,
16:20 especially, and for a guy like Colin Murakawa or Rory,
16:23 these guys are making tens of millions of dollars already
16:26 every single year.
16:27 How much do you need?
16:28 How much do you need?
16:30 That's my only thing.
16:31 - We will get to the financial markets
16:34 because Lord knows I need some help.
16:36 I mean, just panic job.
16:38 Spend an hour with Danny Moses
16:40 inside the ropes of the US Open.
16:41 Next thing I know, I'm just full on selling everything.
16:43 Sell the house, sell the cars.
16:45 Oh, sell my Bitcoin.
16:47 - An hour with Danny Moses?
16:49 - Oh, it was awesome.
16:49 This guy's such a dude.
16:50 Well, I'll tell you more about it offline,
16:52 but he is such a dude.
16:53 I love me some Danny Moses.
16:54 Yeah, he got his tickets, by the way,
16:56 through a charity auction with John Daly.
16:59 So you know how much fun he was having.
17:01 Hey, before we do get back,
17:03 there's a button somewhere on here.
17:04 Go ahead and push it, like us.
17:05 You can add your comments, any questions that you have.
17:08 You know how we roll, we're gonna answer it on air.
17:10 Coach?
17:11 - Yes.
17:12 - You've been good this year.
17:13 Your picks have been absolutely outstanding.
17:15 If you've been following along, breaking even,
17:17 you've been making some money.
17:18 You've been getting some pay dirt off of coaches' picks.
17:21 Can you just kind of look into the future for me
17:23 a little bit?
17:24 Offer me some money make-ups?
17:26 - I know, every time you ask me to do a little bit more,
17:29 sometimes I just sit back and I think,
17:32 and I look into my crystal ball.
17:34 And there's a very big event this week.
17:37 (bell dings)
17:44 And for those people who don't know what that event is,
17:46 it's the NBA 2022 draft.
17:50 Now, there's not a lot of movement in the markets,
17:53 but the reason people come to breaking even
17:55 with Ned Michaels is to get the sharpest of the advice.
17:59 - That's you.
18:00 - And there's a little man, that would be me,
18:02 who just left Duke.
18:03 His last name is Panchero, right?
18:06 There's a big seven foot dude named Chet Holmgren.
18:10 He's coming out against Zagat.
18:11 He should be the number one pick,
18:12 but guess what?
18:13 He's not going to be.
18:14 So for people who are trying to figure out,
18:15 who do I bet on?
18:16 Chet Holmgren, he wants to go to the Thunder.
18:19 He has not participated, Ned,
18:21 in any of the medical stuff
18:23 that the NBA likes the players to do.
18:25 He hasn't given any of his medical reports out.
18:28 That's a big red flag.
18:30 And Panchero as the number one pick at plus 400.
18:35 And he will go to the Orlando Magic
18:39 on Thursday night at 8 p.m. Eastern ESPN.
18:42 For the first time on ABC, you're welcome.
18:45 - Think he'll play defense?
18:50 - Doesn't matter.
18:51 (laughing)
18:53 And no, would be the answer there.
18:55 - Plus 400 for the number one pick.
18:57 That's easy money.
18:58 - He was plus 800 about two weeks ago.
19:00 So if you got him two weeks ago,
19:02 you got him at plus 1800.
19:04 But all these reports have started to come in.
19:06 All these behind the scenes reports.
19:08 And Chet Holmgren, he's like a Kevin Durant.
19:12 I think he's gonna be an all-timer.
19:14 So you're gonna see a lot of this stuff in 15 years, Ned,
19:17 when they say, like with Michael Jordan,
19:18 the teams that skipped on that dude,
19:21 you're gonna see that about Chet Holmgren.
19:22 I promise you, I promise you.
19:24 - I promise you if you go down to Mississippi,
19:29 you're gonna have a good time.
19:31 I will promise you that.
19:33 I mean, you know what's funny is up in Boston
19:37 for the US Open, on Sunday we had toboggan caps on.
19:40 We had pullovers on, we had sweaters.
19:43 It was 54 degrees and a cold northern wind, coach.
19:47 Down in the South, it was 115.
19:49 In Memphis, it was 100.
19:51 In Nashville, you could get down the coast of Mississippi,
19:54 get near the water, cool yourself off.
19:56 If you wanted to, you could go into some of those casinos,
19:58 sling some cards.
19:59 You could have put money on Matthew Fitzpatrick
20:02 at the Sportsbook.
20:03 And then you can have a great dinner.
20:04 You can play a lot of golf.
20:06 And right there in that whole area, that Biloxi area,
20:08 you can go to baseball games, see concerts.
20:10 That's where I'm taking my next vacation.
20:12 I can promise you that.
20:12 Visit Mississippi.org.
20:16 So we're gonna let coach just ease his way out of here
20:19 as Guy Adame slides in.
20:21 And if not his normal jovial self, Guy's having a little--
20:25 - No, I'm good, Ned.
20:26 I'm good, man.
20:27 Back pain ain't gonna slow me down.
20:28 How you doing?
20:30 - You know, I'm tired from the United States Open,
20:32 but I'm more irritated that I have regained my crown
20:35 as maybe the worst traitor, moron traitor in the world.
20:40 Again, I spent this nice time with Danny Moses
20:43 early on Saturday at the United States Open.
20:45 And I left feeling a little bit unsure of things.
20:50 So I ended up selling my Bitcoin
20:53 at right around like 17.5 or 17.
20:55 It basically went to bottom.
20:56 Again, that's what you do
20:57 when you're the worst at something.
20:59 And so now I don't know what to do.
21:00 So tell me what you think about Bitcoin
21:03 'cause you have talked about it
21:04 over the past couple of shows.
21:05 - No, I appreciate that.
21:06 First of all, I think we've all been there for sure.
21:08 So don't beat yourself up
21:10 'cause as you know, it doesn't do any good.
21:12 And we've all made those mistakes
21:13 and emotion gets the better of us all the time.
21:16 And I know what Danny's views are on Bitcoin,
21:17 but let's talk about it real quick.
21:19 And Jacob's put it on a great chart.
21:21 Again, and just to go back in time a little bit,
21:23 if you do recall, Bitcoin topped out back in November
21:27 around 66,000 or so, right around the same time
21:30 the Federal Reserve in the United States pivoted.
21:32 They pivoted from being extraordinarily accommodative,
21:36 keeping rates low, adding liquidity to the system.
21:39 And they obviously did the pivot to then fight inflation.
21:42 So for me, Ned, it's no surprise that Bitcoin topped out
21:46 around the same time the Fed tried to get responsible.
21:49 And I say that because I do think Bitcoin
21:51 was born out of this fear in 2012 or thereabouts
21:55 that central banks were running amok
21:57 and this was sort of a play against the fiat currency.
21:59 With that said, this final leg lower in Bitcoin,
22:03 I think it did trade down to about 17,500 or so on Saturday
22:07 or Sunday, I'm not sure exactly when,
22:08 it doesn't particularly matter.
22:10 But it's not coincidental that it comes on the heels
22:13 of the Swiss National Bank earlier last week,
22:16 announcing a pretty surprise rate hike by them.
22:18 So you have all these central banks now around the world
22:21 raising rates, trying to be responsible.
22:24 And I think that's one of the main reasons
22:26 that Bitcoin has come under pressure.
22:27 Now, today you'll see it's up some 4,000 or so dollars
22:31 from that bottom and be like, well, what the hell's going on?
22:33 And I think it's not coincidental
22:35 that one of the Fed governors said, hey, wait a second,
22:38 we're probably closer to ending this QT,
22:41 quantitative tightening cycle, than people think.
22:44 And I think that's gotten Bitcoin back off the mat.
22:47 But I'll say this, the time to own Bitcoin again,
22:50 and it's gonna happen, is when central banks
22:53 around the world pivot from their pivot.
22:55 In other words, go from being very responsible
22:58 to try to being as very aggressive.
23:00 And in my opinion, irresponsible as they were for years.
23:03 - So a couple of questions there.
23:06 Give us a timeline, because from what I've read
23:09 and from doing the show with you all,
23:10 I believe that they're going to pivot at some point.
23:13 They're gonna have to correct path a little bit.
23:15 So talk to me about timeline on that.
23:17 And then second, in talking throughout the show,
23:19 listening to On The Tape and The Market Calls,
23:22 which by the way, I absolutely love those that y'all do.
23:24 Again, if you're not watching or listening to Market Call,
23:27 you're doing it wrong.
23:29 You all have talked about gold,
23:31 especially you guys have talked about gold,
23:33 has some legs up in your opinion.
23:35 So don't they kind of go hand in hand?
23:38 Gold, if the Fed pivots, is gonna skyrocket
23:41 and Bitcoin the same?
23:42 - Yeah, I think in this case, Ned, you make a good point.
23:45 Now they have obviously, they've coupled,
23:47 they've decoupled numerous times over the years.
23:49 And quite frankly, I haven't really been able
23:51 to figure out the reasons why.
23:53 I think the reason why gold came off as aggressively
23:56 as it did as well, is because gold was an inflation hedge
23:59 when gold was going higher last summer,
24:01 it was doing exactly what it's supposed to do.
24:03 Gold was sniffing out inflation long before the Fed said,
24:06 "Hey, wait a second, inflation's a problem."
24:08 And then when all these central banks realized
24:10 it was a problem, they had to combat it.
24:12 That obviously put the top in gold.
24:14 So that sort of makes sense.
24:15 Now to your point, I agree with you.
24:17 I do think this Fed is gonna pivot again.
24:19 I just don't know the timeframe.
24:21 My sense is, it's gonna be somewhere prior
24:24 to the midterm elections, if I had a guess.
24:27 So what does that make?
24:28 Sort of September, October.
24:30 So, three or four months from now,
24:31 because if the markets continue to sell off,
24:35 and inflation's still a problem,
24:37 this administration and Democrats specifically,
24:40 are gonna be fighting a pretty uphill battle
24:42 to keep their seats in the House, the Senate,
24:43 and obviously looking to 2024.
24:46 So my instincts suggest that if things continue to slide
24:50 and get worse on the market front,
24:52 you will see that Fed pivot sometime in the fall.
24:55 If that happens, Bitcoin goes down, it goes to what?
25:00 No, I disagree with you.
25:03 I think if this Fed then reverses again
25:06 and gets more accommodative--
25:07 In the time before it pivoted.
25:09 I'm sorry, I didn't understand the question.
25:10 So in the intermediate term,
25:13 if inflation is obviously still a concern,
25:14 and they're gonna still be somewhat dogmatic
25:17 in their approach in terms of, hey, wait a second,
25:19 we're really steadfast in our beliefs,
25:21 we need to fight this.
25:23 Look, 17,500 actually made sense
25:26 for a lot of different reasons.
25:27 You go back sort of December 2018-ish,
25:30 and if you recall, Bitcoin topped out around those levels.
25:33 So past resistance becomes support.
25:36 But there are other people out there
25:38 that think it can go significantly lower from there.
25:40 I'll say this, and I'm not looking to play stock market,
25:43 and obviously everybody's in a different situation,
25:45 but my sense is if you have a long-term view,
25:50 and if you do think central banks
25:52 are gonna once again be irresponsible
25:54 and pivot from this inflation-fighting stance,
25:57 I think we're within a few thousand dollars
25:59 of the low of Bitcoin.
26:00 I don't know if I feel good about that.
26:03 No, I'm sorry, Ned, I'm trying to guide you to the light.
26:07 Oh, it's a long tunnel right now.
26:10 I can just about see the light.
26:12 And again, just to clarify, if the Fed does pivot,
26:15 you think gold goes up with the pivot?
26:18 I do, because I think that's gonna be
26:19 them throwing in the towel.
26:21 I think they're gonna say, you know,
26:21 we tried, obviously, unsuccessfully,
26:24 because they're fighting a battle
26:25 on a number of different fronts.
26:26 You know, they're trying to keep the economy chugging.
26:29 They obviously don't want a recession, which I understand.
26:32 That's probably a conversation for another time.
26:34 And at the same time, they're trying to fight inflation.
26:36 It's gotten completely out of hand.
26:37 You know, they were longing for 2% inflation for so long,
26:41 and then they got 8.5%, and quite frankly, Ned,
26:43 and I'm sure your viewers and listeners know this as well,
26:46 inflation is much higher than that
26:48 if you really measured it properly.
26:49 So they're in for a battle with this one,
26:52 but if markets continue to deteriorate,
26:54 people continue to do, you know,
26:56 companies, you're seeing it all around now,
26:58 layoffs are coming, people are trying to be more,
27:00 I think, responsible in the way they spend money.
27:03 That's gonna force their hand once again.
27:05 So they've created this situation,
27:07 when I say they, central bankers,
27:09 specifically our Federal Reserve,
27:11 and I don't think they have an easy way out.
27:13 - So when we start talking about oil,
27:16 and my favorite, O-I-H.
27:19 - Yeah, where is that today?
27:20 I mean, that's been volatile as hell, man, incredible.
27:22 - Well, I got back in at 300.
27:24 Again, I've already made nice money off of it,
27:27 and you've had some terrific calls on that,
27:29 but I got back in at 300, thinking, okay,
27:31 we're looking at hopefully 20%.
27:33 It's gone down now below that support of 245.
27:37 And again, just like Bitcoin,
27:38 I kind of panicked and sold a lot of it at a loss.
27:41 So, yeah, it's a double top,
27:43 and there were a lot of reasons,
27:44 but hit me with what you think.
27:45 - Listen, and I feel bad,
27:46 listen, I'm definitely responsible for this
27:48 because- - No, no,
27:49 you're not allowed to feel bad about these things.
27:51 But you're giving information,
27:53 I'm making the decision,
27:54 and our listeners are. - And Jacob's not
27:55 to do something for me.
27:56 So if you continue to sort of stretch this out,
27:58 and stretch it out even more,
28:00 because I think it's important to see where it is now,
28:02 but look at where OIH has been over the years.
28:04 And you look at this and say, well, wait a second.
28:08 Although we look like we're making new all-time highs,
28:10 the reality is we're not even close.
28:13 So 245 was my line in the sand.
28:15 Obviously, we traded below that.
28:16 I think we got down to 232 or something,
28:18 as you know, once again, not an exact science,
28:20 and I get it, and I understand the discipline suggests
28:23 that below 245 you get out.
28:25 But again, I think people are underestimating
28:28 the power of oil here.
28:29 And as much as they wanna downplay it,
28:32 as much as they wanna sort of jawbone it lower,
28:34 they being the administration and other people,
28:36 I think the fundamentals are in place for oil to go higher.
28:38 I was surprised the OIH didn't get significantly higher
28:42 than the highs we saw back in March.
28:44 I think we got to, what, 320 or so,
28:46 but here we are, very volatile,
28:48 but once again, at this, let's just call it 245,
28:53 because I think that's where it's trading as we speak.
28:55 You know, the stocks that comprise that
28:58 are really cheap fundamentally.
28:59 So this, to me, is a good entry point.
29:02 I understand that it got through my level,
29:04 but again, as you know,
29:05 there are no exact sciences in this thing.
29:08 - I asked Danny Moses about their discussion,
29:11 your discussion, with Porter and Vinny,
29:13 and talking about Tesla and being short on it.
29:15 And I said, well, you know, if I wanted to short it,
29:18 what do I do?
29:19 And he said, buy puts.
29:21 Oh, thanks, genius.
29:23 But I am interested in,
29:24 this is more of a kind of macro question,
29:27 specific to Tesla, but I guess in general,
29:30 how far out are you looking for something like Tesla?
29:33 And then how do you determine what price,
29:35 the strike price and the value of it?
29:38 And that's a big question. - Yeah, that's a great question.
29:40 I mean, there's so many things embedded in that
29:41 when you talk about options.
29:42 I mean, how far out do you look?
29:44 Well, a lot of times you want to look out towards events.
29:46 What does that mean?
29:47 What is the next event for Tesla?
29:49 And my sense is the next event's gonna come
29:51 in the form of earnings release,
29:53 probably sometimes next month.
29:55 I don't have it up in front of me,
29:56 but so the earnings release will be an event.
29:59 So you want to give yourself time
30:02 where you capture that event.
30:04 So if you think Tesla's quarter's not gonna be up to snuff,
30:08 and you want to play it on the short side vis-a-vis puts,
30:11 you better make sure the expiration date of those puts
30:15 are after they report on earnings,
30:17 if that makes sense.
30:18 'Cause you don't want to buy puts that expire before,
30:21 have them report,
30:22 and then have the stock move after the event.
30:24 So take that into consideration.
30:25 In terms of strike price,
30:27 let price be your guide
30:29 in terms of where the stock has been.
30:30 That 600 level's been support a couple times.
30:33 That makes sense.
30:34 So if you wanted to sort of have an opinion vis-a-vis puts,
30:39 and you think it's going lower,
30:40 again, not having seen where Tesla vol is right now,
30:44 my sense is probably it's pretty elevated
30:46 if you wanted to buy puts,
30:47 but I'll play the game with you.
30:49 You would look at something like an August,
30:52 whatever, $600 put,
30:54 'cause I think that gives you enough time.
30:56 - And then from a macro point of view,
30:58 for some reason I'm feeling better about things.
31:00 Maybe I'm still riding high from the United States Open,
31:04 but I want to get your thoughts on it.
31:07 You had that 37.50 call.
31:09 Just overview.
31:11 How you feeling and where are we going?
31:12 - So Jacob put up an S&P chart,
31:15 we've actually talked about this last week.
31:17 The fact that I thought,
31:18 all right, we've exhausted ourself to the downside,
31:20 and now I think there's room still for a bounce
31:23 and being still in this bear market channel
31:27 that we find ourselves in.
31:28 I said it on Fast Money last week,
31:30 I think I said it on On The Tape with the guys,
31:32 that although I'm bearish overall,
31:35 sort of got to my levels and now I'm looking for a bounce.
31:37 So I actually think the market can bounce to the S&P,
31:40 call it 4,000 or so.
31:42 So that's some 250-ish handles away.
31:45 So call it a 6% or 7% move to the upside
31:48 before we, in my opinion, take the next leg lower.
31:51 I do think at some point we trade 3,200 or so in the S&P.
31:56 I don't want to say it's a foregone conclusion
31:57 'cause there are no foregone conclusions,
32:00 but it makes sense to me in terms of levels.
32:01 But I think we can get to 4,000 first.
32:04 - It makes sense given what IWM went down to,
32:07 it's pre-COVID highs.
32:07 I think everything is kind of touching back
32:09 to those pre-COVID highs.
32:10 So why would the S&P be spared?
32:12 - That's right.
32:13 I think that's exactly right.
32:14 And remember, we're coming into an earnings seasons
32:16 where I think people expectations are way too high.
32:20 I mean, if you just look around the landscape,
32:22 people are starting to cut back in a major way
32:24 and it might not manifest itself
32:26 in the earnings that are released,
32:28 but I think it might manifest itself
32:29 in the guidance going forward.
32:31 - When should I get back into Apple?
32:34 - Well, it got down to about what?
32:35 I think it got down to 131 or so, if I'm not mistaken.
32:38 Is that right?
32:39 - Yeah, that's about right.
32:40 - And when you say get back in,
32:41 you mean in terms of your put position?
32:43 - No, in terms of buying for long,
32:45 thinking, okay, it's discounted enough,
32:47 the price is a time to purchase.
32:50 - Well, that's a good question.
32:51 So if I'm right, and that's a big if,
32:54 if I'm right in my S&P assertion,
32:55 I think one of the things that may get us there
32:58 is probably Apple coming out and sort of guiding lower
33:01 or maybe missing the quarter entirely.
33:03 I don't think that's out of the realm of possibility
33:06 given again, the backdrop.
33:07 So my level is sort of somewhere between 120 and 125
33:12 to get in.
33:13 And then once you get in at those levels,
33:15 I think it's one of those things
33:16 where you sort of close your eyes and say, all right,
33:18 this was a, I wanna call it generational
33:21 'cause that's a dumb word,
33:22 but this was a great opportunity in a stock
33:24 that I've been looking to buy for years.
33:26 You know, I'm able to get it at probably at that point,
33:29 almost a 40% discount to the prior all time high we saw,
33:33 I wanna say December, January of last,
33:35 or December of last year, January of this year.
33:38 Disney, you're still high on, I'm in at roughly 100.
33:41 You did a good job though, Nick.
33:42 You got out, you got long, you sold it out.
33:45 You said, you know what, if I'm bearish in the broader market
33:47 Disney's not gonna be spared.
33:48 You were right.
33:49 What'd it get down to?
33:50 94 or something now.
33:51 What is Disney at?
33:52 95, so well done by you.
33:54 Look, I still think just valuation alone,
33:57 Disney's worth a look.
33:58 And you go longer term chart, you'll see,
34:00 you know, these are levels that we found support
34:02 in over the years.
34:03 But you can understand again,
34:05 if the economy is slowing,
34:06 why people might put off that trip to Disney.
34:09 And you can understand how they'd be under pressure.
34:11 With that said, I mean, we've effectively round tripped
34:14 a move we saw from early 2020,
34:17 obviously made new all time highs when everything was raging.
34:20 Now we've given the entire move back.
34:22 It's just surprising to me that it's almost down
34:24 to where it was in COVID.
34:25 I mean, it's not that far away, 10 to 15%.
34:28 It's pretty remarkable, right?
34:29 It is remarkable, yeah.
34:30 You know, my favorite part of the show, Guy.
34:34 Oh, are we gonna do it?
34:36 'Cause I don't know, but I'm ready.
34:37 I'm ready.
34:38 I'm ready.
34:39 Always ready.
34:40 Roll it.
34:41 (upbeat music)
34:44 I don't have coach here to make fun of me,
34:47 but I'll say this.
34:48 What's really interesting about baseball,
34:51 they say you play 162 games in a season,
34:54 which you know, Ned.
34:55 And the common theme is out of those first 100 games
35:00 or out of 100 games, you're gonna win 50
35:02 and you're gonna lose 50.
35:03 And it's what you do in the other 62
35:06 that separates you from the pack.
35:08 Well, as we sit here right now,
35:10 the Yankees of New York are 50 and 17.
35:13 It's really a remarkable start.
35:15 And if you think about it, if you do the math,
35:17 if they play at this clip the rest of the year,
35:20 not only are they not gonna lose 50 games,
35:22 they might only lose 42 games.
35:24 It might be one of those seasons
35:25 that just sort of mark for your calendar
35:28 things that never have happened before.
35:30 I think the Seattle Mariners, I think,
35:32 had the all-time regular season win total.
35:34 I think it was 118.
35:35 This Yankee team might surpass it.
35:37 They do everything right.
35:39 Watch the game last night, a game that, you know what?
35:41 They had every opportunity to lose
35:43 once a Garrett Cole gave up his no hitter,
35:45 but they found a way to win.
35:46 This team, Ned Michaels, is finding a way to win.
35:50 And that's my mini rant for the day.
35:52 - That's great.
35:55 That's great.
35:57 I always root for the Yankees as a Braves fan.
35:59 Always root for the Yankees.
36:01 I'm hoping they go, oh, in 50, in the next 50 games.
36:05 - It ain't gonna happen.
36:08 - No. - That one,
36:08 I can almost guarantee you.
36:10 - They're a good baseball team, a good baseball team.
36:12 And you're a good man for joining us as always, Guy Domingue.
36:15 We'll see you next week on "Breaking Even."
36:17 (upbeat music)
36:19 you