Batangas, Cavite, at Oriental Mindoro, makararanas ng tagtuyot ngayong Disyembre
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00:00 Three provinces experienced drought this December.
00:04 And we will update you with Joey Figurason,
00:09 weather specialist from DOSST Pag-asa.
00:13 Good afternoon, sir.
00:15 Good afternoon, sir. Good afternoon to all the countrymen who tuned in to your program.
00:26 According to the latest forecast of Pag-asa, Batangas, Cavite and Oriental Mindoro will experience heavy drought in December.
00:37 What are the details of this?
00:39 Yes, sir. That is based on our assessment in the past 5 months.
00:48 Based on the received rainfall of those places
00:52 and based on our forecast that there will be heavy rainfall in December.
00:59 It is true that there is a shortage of rainwater in Batangas, Cavite and Oriental Mindoro.
01:06 And we are now attaching that to the effect of the current Ilninyo.
01:14 Okay, sir. There are also some provinces that experienced dry spell according to the latest report.
01:22 What are the provinces that experienced this?
01:25 Yes, sir. Based on our forecast and assessment in the past months,
01:32 there is a shortage of water or dry spell or dry spell condition in the areas of Binget,
01:40 Pugao, Calinga, Apayao, Mountain Provinces, in the areas of CAR.
01:46 In the Ilocos region, there is also a shortage of water or dry spell condition.
01:53 Particularly in Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino,
02:00 even in Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac, Aurora and even in the Palawan area, there is a shortage of rainwater.
02:11 And even in December, our forecast still has a little rain.
02:16 We are basing that on normal rainfall.
02:20 If the received rainfall is still below normal in December.
02:26 Sir, to make it clearer for our countrymen,
02:30 can you explain the possible experiences of our countrymen during drought and dry spell?
02:38 For example, what will be the average temperature during this time?
02:43 Yes, sir. What we are letting you know is that normally, when these conditions are different levels,
02:53 based on the received rainfall or the forecast or outlook of the rainfall in a place,
02:59 we have three categories of potential in the shortage.
03:05 In these categories, this is the dry condition, dry spell and drought.
03:11 So it depends on the level of how much reduction is based on the normal received rainfall in some places.
03:18 So if we are saying that a place is in a dry condition,
03:24 below normal, about 41 to 80% of the rainfall received is based on the normal received rainfall.
03:37 So the consecutive months that you will experience this is in a dry condition.
03:43 If the place is in a dry spell condition, if the three consecutive months are below normal,
03:49 that is the place where the rainfall is reduced,
03:53 which is the percentage based on the normal received rainfall is only 41 to 80%.
03:58 And it is also possible that the place is in a dry spell condition
04:03 if the rainfall received is way below normal in the two consecutive months.
04:09 And the highest level of water shortage is the drought condition,
04:16 which is the rainfall condition below normal is experienced in the five consecutive months,
04:25 or three consecutive months that are way below normal.
04:29 So if we say way below normal, the reduction in the rainfall received is about 60%.
04:37 So it means that the rainfall received in that particular month is only 40%.
04:44 Now, in the condition of our temperature when it comes to this time of the year,
04:50 it means that if there is a shortage of rainwater, especially if one place is rain-fed,
04:57 there is also a shortage in the formation of clouds.
05:03 So it means that the place is more exposed to the sun,
05:07 it means that there is a domino effect.
05:09 It is already hot, there is a shortage of water, it means that the weather is hot.
05:14 Actually, we experienced about warmer than normal in October.
05:20 It means that our October is hotter than normal,
05:23 even though the past days of November,
05:27 we experienced a warmer weather than normal in November.
05:34 So that is one of the effects of the El Niño, we are hotter than normal.
05:39 Okay sir, just to clarify, based on the typhoons that entered the country,
05:45 only 10 typhoons entered the Philippines.
05:49 Is this also an effect of the El Niño?
05:54 Yes, Nina. Actually, this is one of the effects of the El Niño.
06:01 Because the typhoon is far away, it is more to the east,
06:08 it means that if it is far away, it cannot reach our area of responsibility.
06:13 It means that there is a reduction in the frequency or the number of typhoons
06:18 that enter our country, even if it is landfall or crossover land.
06:24 That is a good news, but in reality, if we have a shortage of typhoons,
06:32 based on our studies, the typhoon is one of the drivers of our rainwater.
06:39 So it is one of the factors that gives us rain.
06:43 So if there is a reduction in the number of typhoons, there is also a reduction in our rainwater.
06:49 Actually, in the Luzon area, during this time of the year,
06:53 about 70% of our rainwater comes from typhoons.
06:58 Yes. So sir Joey, this dry spell, because we are not yet sure if this will be a drought,
07:06 how long do you think, based on the studies of Pag-asa, how long will this last?
07:16 Yes, if the El Niño persists, because we are in dry months,
07:29 that is our normal climate, we are in dry period, November up to May next year.
07:38 So now, what happens when there is an El Niño, we have a reduction in rain,
07:44 which is in dry season, and we receive less rain,
07:48 it means that our exposure is high, that we still have a shortage of water.
07:57 This is what we call dry condition, dry spell, and drought.
08:01 So we may experience that until next year, in our dry period.
08:08 So until May, this shortage may continue.
08:13 And El Niño may have a lag effect, although we will enter May, June, July, August,
08:22 we are in the rainy season, but El Niño may have a lag effect during those times of the next year.
08:30 Okay. Our countrymen should be prepared, especially those who will plant this dry spell in the provinces where this will happen.
08:40 So sir, at the moment, are we being watched by the weather outside the Philippine area of responsibility?
08:48 And is it possible that a storm will come before the year ends?
08:53 Sir John, now in our monitoring for the next two weeks,
08:59 we are not seeing any storm that can enter or fill our area of responsibility or cross our province.
09:08 But we can see low pressure areas that can give us a chance,
09:12 for example, this shear line that we call, because we are in the dry season,
09:18 when the dry season comes and the wind from the east, we get a shear line.
09:24 So it still gives rain in some parts of our country.
09:27 But generally, although we have not seen a storm that can affect us in the next two weeks,
09:35 we still have a forecast for the month of December that we can still experience one or two storms before the year ends.
09:44 Okay. So tomorrow is December 1. Time really flies.
09:50 Can we know, sir, what are the expected temperatures, for example, here in Metro Manila?
09:57 When are we expecting the coldest?
10:01 Because sometimes it's still hot, so we can't understand the weather right now.
10:07 Yes, because we are in the dry season, so we can still experience what we call cold surges this December.
10:15 The most affected is winter, winter in the northern hemisphere.
10:20 So we are affected there because we have dry season that can intrude on us a little.
10:26 But we expect cold surges this December until February.
10:31 And our December, although our forecast says it's a little hotter than our normal December,
10:39 our temperature forecast for December is about 12 degrees.
10:44 We can still experience 12 degrees in the upland of Luzon.
10:49 And our forecast for December is as high as 39 degrees Celsius.
10:54 So, like I mentioned, our December is warmer than our normal December.
10:59 But we still expect cold surges or temperature drops because we have a dry season this December.
11:06 So, sir Joey, I just want to know, in Metro Manila, what is the average temperature that you estimate?
11:13 About 17 degrees Celsius to 36.5 degrees Celsius is our estimate that we can experience in Metro Manila.
11:24 Okay. 36?
11:26 I hope it's still cold.
11:27 I hope it's not 36.
11:30 Yes.
11:31 But you said...
11:32 There's also a low as 17.1.
11:35 Maybe in Baguio, right?
11:37 Sometimes in Ilocos, it's cold.
11:40 But we can experience 12 degrees Celsius in Metro Manila.
11:44 Okay.
11:45 We expect that.
11:46 We expect that.
11:47 So, thank you very much for your time, Joey Figuracion, weather specialist from DOST Pagasa.
11:54 Pagasa!