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Transcript
00:00 According to a prominent business analyst, I am confident AEW aren't profitable now.
00:07 Lower attendance, lower PPV buy rates, bigger contracts for bigger stars. Does AEW actually
00:14 make money? The answer is no. But also yes.
00:26 The rather glib quote to open these proceedings came from Brandon Thurston of WrestleNomics,
00:31 who said in November 2023, "I'm confident they aren't profitable now. They need to
00:35 make $200 million a year in media rights to get to profitability."
00:41 Like a lot of start-ups, when AEW launched in 2019, it was speculated that it would take
00:46 a while for the company to turn a profit. Tony Khan himself said on AEW Unrestricted
00:51 in March of 2020 that he invested tens of millions of dollars before the very first
00:57 show in signing names like Cody Rhodes, Kenny Omega, Chris Jericho and The Young Bucks,
01:02 as well as putting together the four PPV events of 2019. But to the surprise of pretty much
01:08 everyone, AEW got a TV deal almost immediately. That deal was announced in May of 2019, and
01:16 then extended in January of 2020 for $175 million - which included the launch of a second
01:23 show in Rampage. Dave Meltzer wrote that it was a deal that will make the company profitable
01:28 in 2020 and beyond. Khan told PWInsider in July of 2021, "We're going to make money
01:35 in wrestling this year because of our great partnerships. Our PPVs are way ahead of anyone's
01:41 projections. They're all up year over year." AEW bounced back following the COVID-19 pandemic,
01:47 helped by the huge All Out PPV which saw the wrestling return of CM Punk, and the debuts
01:51 of top talent in WWE Jumping Ship in Bryan Danielson and Adam Cole. This was followed
01:56 up by an episode of Dynamite from Arthur Ashe Stadium which sold over 20,000 tickets.
02:03 And even with a rocky 2022 and an even rockier 2023, it was reported by Forbes that AEW
02:11 was worth somewhere in the region of $1 billion.
02:16 That sounds healthy and profitable, but it's worth noting that something being 'worth
02:22 something' doesn't mean it's its actual value. Take for example this Satsuma. This
02:29 cost me less than a quid to buy from my local Sainsbury's, but if someone paid a tenner
02:34 for it, then it would be worth £10. They paid over the odds for it, but this Satsuma
02:40 to them is worth £10.
02:42 A better example, a real life example of this is this one of a kind Magic the Gathering
02:48 card from their Lord of the Rings IP crossover. This is one of one. There isn't another
02:54 card like this in the whole world. I won't go into the full story of how he got it, but
02:58 a chap named Brock Trapton opened the pack that had it. And while he would have loved
03:02 to have kept the literal one ring to rule them all, he sold the card to the rapper Post
03:07 Malone. But how much for? Because really, it has no value. It's a one of a kind. It's
03:14 only value is how much Post Malone was willing to pay for it, which was rumoured to be between
03:20 $1 and $2 million. Just think of that story whenever you hear people talk about AEW being
03:25 a $1 billion company. Because AEW in 2023 is a very different company to the one it
03:31 was in 2021. It's now a bigger company.
03:34 In 2023, AEW debuted a new TV show in Collision, which came with extra production costs, as
03:41 well as running Ring of Honor and their own TV tapings, which also came with extra production
03:46 costs. The inclusion of monthly pay-per-views also comes with, you guessed it, more production
03:52 costs. And yeah, there's talent. Ric Flair, Adam Copeland, Mariah May, Jay White to name
03:58 but a few, and the man who at one time was set to be the hottest free agent of 2024,
04:04 Will Ospreay. Ospreay chose AEW over WWE, and it was reported that whoever signed Will
04:11 would be the one with the bigger checkbook.
04:14 In that PWInsider interview I mentioned earlier, the reason TK was talking money was because
04:19 of a report that AEW had sunk eight figures into the development of AEW Fight Forever.
04:25 Khan revealed in that interview that they'd spent $20 million on Epic Games. That's
04:30 the company, by the way, they didn't just spend $20 million on loads of copies of Final
04:34 Fantasy 7. So yeah, there's loads of money being spent on talent, on video games, on
04:41 production, especially when you compare it year on year, so where is the money being
04:45 made? In ticket sales, right?
04:50 WrestleTix revealed that ticket sales for AEW Dynamite on Thursday 24th in Chicago were
04:55 just over 3,500. In 2022 that was just under 5,000. In 2021 it was over 7,000.
05:04 But unlike those previous two years, AEW were not, essentially, running against WWE, who
05:10 decided to put on their Survivor Series PPV in the same market and on the same week that
05:14 Dynamite have run for the week of Thanksgiving for three years in a row. I'm sure that
05:21 was just a coincidence. But WWE did it for a reason, and they proved they were a hotter
05:26 ticket in town. Survivor Series was well on its way to selling out, and then they opened
05:30 up even more seats by removing the LED board and basically sold the show out again. They
05:36 then opened up more sections to sell it out three times over.
05:40 Ticket sales have been a big talking point for All Elite Wrestling in 2023, as the company
05:44 tries to recover from a 2022 that saw fan interest dip while at the same time competing
05:49 against a WWE who was much hotter than it was two years ago. Seemingly every week there's
05:55 a photo from Dynamite's All Collision showing how empty the building is, which has echoes
05:59 of when Smackdown and Raw had the same photos during the latter years of the Vince McMahon
06:04 era. Sure, the Chicago sales for Dynamite could be attributed to its Thanksgiving, though
06:10 that hasn't heard it in the past, but also the loss of CM Punk, who was fired by All
06:14 Elite Wrestling in September 2023 by Tony Khan after an incident at All In at Wembley
06:20 Stadium.
06:21 Speaking of All In, it was the big PPV success of 2023, so it's not all doom and gloom.
06:25 Though the official attendance will never be confirmed, it's somewhere between 72,000
06:30 and 85,000 according to the local council, the official ticket sales for the show put
06:36 it at over 81,000. It was also a big PPV buy rate for the company, revealed on the media
06:43 call for Full Gear as 200,000 buys - which is the second biggest show they've ever
06:49 done behind Double or Nothing 2022 and All Out 2021. Those positives cannot be said for
06:55 all the other shows. All Out, which took place a week later, drew 115,000 PPV buys, and WrestleDream
07:01 the following month in October did around 100,000. That 115,000 PPV buys for All Out
07:07 does sound good on paper, especially because it came the week after another PPV that also
07:12 cost $50, but it's down from the 140 they did on the same show in 2022, and down again
07:18 from 2021. So AEW are running more shows with less audience in attendance and less people
07:24 buying them, and we've not even talked about the fact their number one revenue source,
07:29 the TV deal, is still up in the air.
07:32 There's been reports and rumours of a TV deal for AEW since May of 2023 when Warner
07:38 Brothers Discovery announced a third AEW show for their networks at their upfronts.
07:43 It was reported that the new deal would also be announced, with Wade Keller of PWTorch
07:48 hearing a number of $1.2 billion over five years, but no announcement came. Collision
07:54 struggled with its TV ratings not only because it's on the less than optimal Saturday night
07:59 slot, but also because WWE run their PPVs on Saturdays, and as previously established,
08:05 they are much hotter than AEW right now.
08:09 Dynamite's ratings have fluctuated across 2023, particularly in the final few months
08:14 as it competes against sport. It's had highs of under 900,000 and lows of just over 600,000.
08:21 And although WWE announced two big TV deals, a 40% increase for Smackdown and a reportedly
08:27 70% increase for NXT, there's still nothing concrete for All Elite Wrestling.
08:33 So yeah, there's a lot more money being spent than the past few years, and seemingly
08:38 not as much money as there once was coming in.
08:41 But let me take you back to that Epic Games quote from PWInsider in 2021. Because one
08:47 could look at that as spending $20 million on Epic Games, or perhaps more smartly, you
08:53 would say it was investing.
08:55 Let's look at the full quote from Tony Khan.
08:59 "We put $20 million into Epic Games, which looks pretty smart now because it's worth
09:04 a lot more than that now. This year is a profitable wrestling year for us, and making a big investment
09:11 in gaming is a good thing."
09:13 Not only did Khan invest in gaming, he also told PWInsider that he invested in his talent
09:19 during the pandemic. While a lot of businesses pulled back on this - we saw WWE release over
09:25 100 wrestlers in 2020 and 2021 - AEW kept on every one they could. In fact, they added
09:32 to their roster during the pandemic.
09:34 Khan barely laid off anyone backstage during this time period either, boasting a higher
09:39 than 95% retention rate of staff during the pandemic. And that 8 figure money that AEW
09:45 put into Fight Forever meant that they built their own game on an engine that they own.
09:51 If AEW split away from THQ Nordic for any future versions of the games, they could take
09:56 the entire build of Fight Forever and host it elsewhere because it's theirs. Which
10:00 adds its plus and minus points, the game is far from perfect. But it also means that other
10:05 companies could license their engine.
10:08 And Khan's reinvestment tactics are not just for 2021, telling The Hollywood Reporter
10:12 in 2023, "I have reinvested a lot of the money we gross in this business. Last year,
10:18 we grossed over $100 million. This year, we'll gross far more than $100 million. So our grosses
10:24 will be far higher this year, and I've reinvested much of the money we've grossed back into
10:30 the business."
10:32 In that same interview, Khan also notes that the PPV business model going monthly - while
10:36 costing more to put on - is bringing in more revenue in ticket sales, buy rates and merchandise.
10:41 And history has shown that WWE moving to a monthly business model was pivotal to them
10:46 trying to "regrow" the business in the mid-90s, which then benefited when it exploded
10:52 when the company got hot during the Attitude Era.
10:55 Ring of Honor wasn't just purchasing the promotion, it was reinvesting what he got
11:00 from that purchase. Tony Khan did not own the name All In because it was an ROH show.
11:05 So when he hosted All In at Wembley Stadium and broke all sorts of records in terms of
11:09 ticket sales and merchandise, he was able to boast in the media scrum that the show
11:13 made several times the price of the entire company, "I got quite a steal, to say the
11:19 least."
11:20 So is AEW profitable? No, but also, yeah. Even if AEW got that $1.2 billion deal from
11:29 Warners as Wade Keller originally reported, or they got that $200 million that Brandon
11:34 Thurston thinks they need, Khan would just reinvest it elsewhere. Whether that be in
11:39 video games, in staff, in talent like Will Ospreay, or whatever other part of the business
11:45 he felt needed expanding.
11:47 When The Hollywood Reporter asked him if there was a magic number he would need to hit in
11:50 order for the company to be quote unquote "profitable", he just said, "I typically
11:55 talk about how I reinvest a lot of money."
11:58 The other thing to note about AEW is that, unlike WWE, they're not a publicly traded
12:04 company. They don't have shareholders, they don't have profit margins, they don't
12:08 have a board to answer to. Just like he did when he spent tens of millions on Chris Jericho
12:13 and Kenny Omega to get the company started in 2019, Tony Khan is playing the long game
12:18 by investing money to bolster sections of AEW so they can grow and become bigger and
12:24 better than they were the previous year.
12:26 Is it profitable now? Maybe not, and certainly not if they don't get the $200 million a
12:30 year that Brandon Thurston believes they need. But that doesn't mean that they never will
12:35 be.
12:36 And speaking of money, what is Vince McMahon doing with his now that he sold a load of
12:41 his WWE stock? Is he counting it like Scrooge McDuck or… I don't know what billionaires
12:48 do. So click Oli Davis' video to get a better answer than the one I just gave you.

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